Nadal v. The Armada

[calitennis127]

Calitennis127 wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
I don’t want to derail the AO match thread, but I would be interested in hearing if @mrzz actually has a defense for claiming that Spanish players “used to fold so heavily” against Rafa, or if @Denis has back-up for his initial claim that Ferrer hasn’t always tried hard v. Nadal. “Folding” (or not trying) is the same as “tanking,” which is a sanctionable charge, and especially serious in light of the recent match-fixing allegations against tennis, and so shouldn’t be tossed around lightly. Personally, I think it’s just one of the cheesy tropes used to demean Nadal on forums, and the whole of Spanish tennis in with the bathwater.

Agreed. I think a more plausible explanation would be that he is doing without his EPO now and doesn’t have that superhuman never-get-tired-no-matter-how-long-the-rally stamina we once witnessed.</blockquote>
Oh, you’re so dreary. If you think Rafa lost that match because he was tired, you weren’t watching. You’d attribute anything he’s ever accomplished to everything other than talent, including cheating. That dog doesn’t hunt. And neither does the notion that he’s not talented.

Nadal did not get his keynote victories over top opponents in the biggest events on superior talent.

 

[mrzz]

Moxie, I never said that the Spanish players "folding" against Nadal was the only reason they would lose. You put up a lot of interesting numbers, but they can be used either way, specially if you remember that up to two years ago the H2H was even more loopsided. In fact, when I said that it is difficult to use statistics to prove or disprove such point  it is precisely because of this: Nadal (as Djokovic and Federer) dominates so much the H2H that it is always (a lot)x(a few or zero) in any way we look.

There are specific points on more than one post above I could address, but it would only be to prolong kind of a pointless discussion.

So, I only brought Djokovic and Federer to the discussion to let clear that it was nothing aimed against Nadal, but maybe people thought that I was implying something bad on them all!

Anyway, I am not particularly fond of this subject. Remember that it all started when I replied Carol's post that Ferrer (I guess it was him) excels against Nadal (which I strongly disagree). Then I pointed out that in other forums we used to debate (and you surely remember that) that it was exactly the other way around, not only in Ferrer's case, but for all spanish players.  People were discussing it for a reason... The point is not the fact that Nadal used to beat them, it is how (easily) he used to do that.

 

 

 

[Federberg]

If there was any mal-intent these Spanish players would be losing against him even more to help him. It's quite clear that there was an element of the psychological for a while. I can only imagine what it's like for them playing against a compatriot who is almost like a demi-god. Before matches I'm sure the Spanish press is on them to talk about how great Rafa is etc. Clearly they have grown more confident playing him as Rafa's level has dropped. Sure we can criticise them for being mentally weak against him in the past, which would probably be unfair. But recent matches certainly absolve them of anything more than mental frailties in the past. This is more an indictment of posters in forums, it's typical in sports. Translating weakness or strength into something more than it is. The typical reflex of an armchair critic who has never achieved anything significant in their own lives

 

[Carol]

If there was any mal-intent these Spanish players would be losing against him even more to help him. It’s quite clear that there was an element of the psychological for a while. I can only imagine what it’s like for them playing against a compatriot who is almost like a demi-god. Before matches I’m sure the Spanish press is on them to talk about how great Rafa is etc. Clearly they have grown more confident playing him as Rafa’s level has dropped. Sure we can criticise them for being mentally weak against him in the past, which would probably be unfair. But recent matches certainly absolve them of anything more than mental frailties in the past. This is more an indictment of posters in forums, it’s typical in sports. Translating weakness or strength into something more than it is. The typical reflex of an armchair critic who has never achieved anything significant in their own lives

Yep, that's exactly happened with Wawrinka and Federer and also the Swiss press until  Stan beaten him the first time

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, I never said that the Spanish players “folding” against Nadal was the only reason they would lose. You put up a lot of interesting numbers, but they can be used either way, specially if you remember that up to two years ago the H2H was even more loopsided. In fact, when I said that it is difficult to use statistics to prove or disprove such point it is precisely because of this: Nadal (as Djokovic and Federer) dominates so much the H2H that it is always (a lot)x(a few or zero) in any way we look. There are specific points on more than one post above I could address, but it would only be to prolong kind of a pointless discussion. So, I only brought Djokovic and Federer to the discussion to let clear that it was nothing aimed against Nadal, but maybe people thought that I was implying something bad on them all! Anyway, I am not particularly fond of this subject. Remember that it all started when I replied Carol’s post that Ferrer (I guess it was him) excels against Nadal (which I strongly disagree). Then I pointed out that in other forums we used to debate (and you surely remember that) that it was exactly the other way around, not only in Ferrer’s case, but for all spanish players. People were discussing it for a reason… The point is not the fact that Nadal used to beat them, it is how (easily) he used to do that.

OK, I won't beat this to death, but in fairness to Carol, she only said that Verdasco and Ferrer always tried their best against Nadal, not that either had "excelled," to which Denis replied that she was "delusional" regarding Ferrer, which I thought was unfair to a great player such as Ferrer.  As to the numbers, they don't change markedly in the last couple of years.  Both Ferrer and Lopez beat Nadal, even a couple of times, in the years prior to 2011.  I still don't think it matters so much that they were Spanish as much as they were playing a far better player.

 

[mrzz]

Yes, you are right, she did use the words "tried their best". All in all it is pretty hard to judge whenever one is trying hard or not (and, by the way, they could try hard, as she said, and "fold", as I said, at the same time...). So Denis overreacted, probably reading it the same way as I did, and brought more confusion trying to follow his argument. Then you opened up a whole new thread "overreacting"to my (probably wrong) use of the word "folding". And the discussion keeps going.

Now I ask: can we turn this thread in to something interesting? The numbers you brought were interesting, in fact... anyway, I subscribe to Federberg's point of view above. I see it this way: the only way to a lesser player to beat a far better one on an ordinary day is to play close to his absolute best, and in order to do so he needs a lot of motivation, which may lack when you play a fellow national which you admire as a player and probably as a person (in other words, you don't play with anger, you don't say to yourself "take that, you SOB", after a winner).

So, could we gauge Nadal's decline by his results against the "Armada"? And, in doing so, I guess we must take into account the surface. Nadal, on his prime, would never lose to them on clay, but guys like Verdasco and Almagro should have a shot on fast hards, and Lopez surely on grass. I should have checked the details on the H2H, but I didn't.

 

 

 

[Denis]

If there was any mal-intent these Spanish players would be losing against him even more to help him. It’s quite clear that there was an element of the psychological for a while. I can only imagine what it’s like for them playing against a compatriot who is almost like a demi-god. Before matches I’m sure the Spanish press is on them to talk about how great Rafa is etc. Clearly they have grown more confident playing him as Rafa’s level has dropped. Sure we can criticise them for being mentally weak against him in the past, which would probably be unfair. But recent matches certainly absolve them of anything more than mental frailties in the past. This is more an indictment of posters in forums, it’s typical in sports. Translating weakness or strength into something more than it is. The typical reflex of an armchair critic who has never achieved anything significant in their own lives

lol, yeah exactly. That, and tends to drown cute little kittens for fun.

 

[Denis]

mrzz wrote:
Moxie, I never said that the Spanish players “folding” against Nadal was the only reason they would lose. You put up a lot of interesting numbers, but they can be used either way, specially if you remember that up to two years ago the H2H was even more loopsided. In fact, when I said that it is difficult to use statistics to prove or disprove such point it is precisely because of this: Nadal (as Djokovic and Federer) dominates so much the H2H that it is always (a lot)x(a few or zero) in any way we look. There are specific points on more than one post above I could address, but it would only be to prolong kind of a pointless discussion. So, I only brought Djokovic and Federer to the discussion to let clear that it was nothing aimed against Nadal, but maybe people thought that I was implying something bad on them all! Anyway, I am not particularly fond of this subject. Remember that it all started when I replied Carol’s post that Ferrer (I guess it was him) excels against Nadal (which I strongly disagree). Then I pointed out that in other forums we used to debate (and you surely remember that) that it was exactly the other way around, not only in Ferrer’s case, but for all spanish players. People were discussing it for a reason… The point is not the fact that Nadal used to beat them, it is how (easily) he used to do that.

OK, I won’t beat this to death, but in fairness to Carol, she only said that Verdasco and Ferrer always tried their best against Nadal, not that either had “excelled,” to which Denis replied that she was “delusional” regarding Ferrer, which I thought was unfair to a great player such as Ferrer. As to the numbers, they don’t change markedly in the last couple of years. Both Ferrer and Lopez beat Nadal, even a couple of times, in the years prior to 2011. I still don’t think it matters so much that they were Spanish as much as they were playing a far better player.

I'm not sure if I would label Ferrer 'great', but lets not get into the greatness discussion.

Ferrer has a great heart no doubt about it. However, he does not 'always tries his best against Nadal'. Ferrer himself admitted that in his presser after the FO 2014 QF. There was a whole debate about that one on one of the other boards. Also the last set in the 2013 Madrid masters quarterfinal is the quintessential example of tanking.

Now I agree with Federberg's assessment that there are a large number of factors involved that make it hard for Ferrer to always try his best against Nadal, not least having to face the guy on clay back in the day. It requires a huge mental effort, so I don't blame him for being human. However, doing his best is kind of his trade mark and it is disappointing to see him give up against a rival of Djokovic from a fan perspective. You want those opponents to give everything, especially if they are known to do so.

 

 

[Mastoor]

From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don't remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco's matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal?

To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka's effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

 

[Moxie]

Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
mrzz wrote:
Moxie, I never said that the Spanish players “folding” against Nadal was the only reason they would lose. You put up a lot of interesting numbers, but they can be used either way, specially if you remember that up to two years ago the H2H was even more loopsided. In fact, when I said that it is difficult to use statistics to prove or disprove such point it is precisely because of this: Nadal (as Djokovic and Federer) dominates so much the H2H that it is always (a lot)x(a few or zero) in any way we look. There are specific points on more than one post above I could address, but it would only be to prolong kind of a pointless discussion. So, I only brought Djokovic and Federer to the discussion to let clear that it was nothing aimed against Nadal, but maybe people thought that I was implying something bad on them all! Anyway, I am not particularly fond of this subject. Remember that it all started when I replied Carol’s post that Ferrer (I guess it was him) excels against Nadal (which I strongly disagree). Then I pointed out that in other forums we used to debate (and you surely remember that) that it was exactly the other way around, not only in Ferrer’s case, but for all spanish players. People were discussing it for a reason… The point is not the fact that Nadal used to beat them, it is how (easily) he used to do that.

OK, I won’t beat this to death, but in fairness to Carol, she only said that Verdasco and Ferrer always tried their best against Nadal, not that either had “excelled,” to which Denis replied that she was “delusional” regarding Ferrer, which I thought was unfair to a great player such as Ferrer. As to the numbers, they don’t change markedly in the last couple of years. Both Ferrer and Lopez beat Nadal, even a couple of times, in the years prior to 2011. I still don’t think it matters so much that they were Spanish as much as they were playing a far better player.</blockquote>
I’m not sure if I would label Ferrer ‘great’, but lets not get into the greatness discussion. Ferrer has a great heart no doubt about it. However, he does not ‘always tries his best against Nadal’. Ferrer himself admitted that in his presser after the FO 2014 QF. There was a whole debate about that one on one of the other boards. Also the last set in the 2013 Madrid masters quarterfinal is the quintessential example of tanking. Now I agree with Federberg’s assessment that there are a large number of factors involved that make it hard for Ferrer to always try his best against Nadal, not least having to face the guy on clay back in the day. It requires a huge mental effort, so I don’t blame him for being human. However, doing his best is kind of his trade mark and it is disappointing to see him give up against a rival of Djokovic from a fan perspective. You want those opponents to give everything, especially if they are known to do so.

I was coming on to respond to mrzz, and was going to mention that presser after the FO QF, in fairness to your point.  It was uncommonly forthcoming of him to say that he'd given up, and surprising to hear.  To me, that alone tells you it was not usual for him. But it was Nadal at RG, and even though Ferrer had beaten Rafa earlier in the year at Monte Carlo, (correction:, his 2nd win over Nadal on clay, including in 2004,) he had also lost to him the year before in the final, in straights.  It's hard to manufacture belief if you don't feel any.  You're very fair in saying that he's human, and you get the effort it takes.  And I can understand the frustration from a Djokovic fan's perspective...if he'd taken down Nadal, Novak would have faced either David or Andy.  However, after losing the first set, Nadal raised his level and I don't think Ferrer was going to beat him.  Apparently, David didn't either.  It's a bad match-up for Ferrer, and I explained briefly the reasons why, though I think folks around here know.  Tbh, I think even Federer has given up a couple of times v. Nadal.

EDIT:  Btw, it's cool if you don't think Ferrer qualifies as "great."  I was using the term a bit loosely, I'll grant that.  He (generally) has a great mentality and a very solid, competitive game.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, you are right, she did use the words “tried their best”. All in all it is pretty hard to judge whenever one is trying hard or not (and, by the way, they could try hard, as she said, and “fold”, as I said, at the same time…). So Denis overreacted, probably reading it the same way as I did, and brought more confusion trying to follow his argument. Then you opened up a whole new thread “overreacting”to my (probably wrong) use of the word “folding”. And the discussion keeps going. Now I ask: can we turn this thread in to something interesting? The numbers you brought were interesting, in fact… anyway, I subscribe to Federberg’s point of view above. I see it this way: the only way to a lesser player to beat a far better one on an ordinary day is to play close to his absolute best, and in order to do so he needs a lot of motivation, which may lack when you play a fellow national which you admire as a player and probably as a person (in other words, you don’t play with anger, you don’t say to yourself “take that, you SOB”, after a winner). So, could we gauge Nadal’s decline by his results against the “Armada”? And, in doing so, I guess we must take into account the surface. Nadal, on his prime, would never lose to them on clay, but guys like Verdasco and Almagro should have a shot on fast hards, and Lopez surely on grass. I should have checked the details on the H2H, but I didn’t.

It's a fair point to make that a friend/compatriot/teammate could have trouble summoning the amount of ruthlessness it takes to beat the superior player.  (An opposite example would be Soderling taking out Nadal at RG in '09.  I think several things went into that win, and one was more than a bit of spite and payback on Robin's part.)  For obvious reasons, I'm not that interested in making this thread about gauging Nadal's decline,   Perhaps we could make it more about intimidation and motivation.  However, I did look up the h2h's, so I'll tell you what I learned:

Ferrer:  beat Rafa in 2004 on clay; 2007 at USO and China, both HCs; AO in 2011; Paris Bercy in 2013; Monte Carlo 2014.  Ferrer has had his best success v. Nadal on HC, including indoor.  The MC win was an upset, and was an early indicator of Nadal vulnerability.

Almagro:  Lone win was Barcelona 2014.  Again, an upset and early indicator.

Lopez:  2003 Basel on indoor HC; 2010 Queen's on grass; 2014 Shanghai and 2015 in Cincy.  Cincy was won in a 3rd set TB, I think, which was again, a surprise.

Verdasco:  2012 Madrid on clay; 2015 Miami; and, well...you know.  Madrid doesn't tell that much, and everyone beat Rafa last year, pretty much.  The big one was the other day.

In sum:  I don't think looking at the Spanish players tells that much.  It's the overall picture that isn't too pretty.

 

[Moxie]

From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don’t remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco’s matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal? To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka’s effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

Mastoor, to be honest, I think this is fanboyism bordering on the childish.  Verdasco and Ferrer played so hard against Nole and not Rafa?  Verdasco is 4-8 v. Novak, and they mostly met early in Nole's career.  Ferrer is 5-16.

 

[Denis]

Mastoor wrote:
From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don’t remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco’s matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal? To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka’s effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

Mastoor, to be honest, I think this is fanboyism bordering on the childish. Verdasco and Ferrer played so hard against Nole and not Rafa? Verdasco is 4-8 v. Novak, and they mostly met early in Nole’s career. Ferrer is 5-16.

Ferrer is a mental giant against everyone ranked below him and a mental midget against everyone ranked above him. That said I think it especially applies to Nadal for the reasons federberg mentioned.

 

[mrzz]

It’s a fair point to make that a friend/compatriot/teammate could have trouble summoning the amount of ruthlessness it takes to beat the superior player. (An opposite example would be Soderling taking out Nadal at RG in ’09. I think several things went into that win, and one was more than a bit of spite and payback on Robin’s part.) For obvious reasons, I’m not that interested in making this thread about gauging Nadal’s decline,

Perhaps we could make it more about intimidation and motivation. However, I did look up the h2h’s, so I’ll tell you what I learned: Ferrer: beat Rafa in 2004 on clay; 2007 at USO and China, both HCs; AO in 2011; Paris Bercy in 2013; Monte Carlo 2014. Ferrer has had his best success v. Nadal on HC, including indoor. The MC win was an upset, and was an early indicator of Nadal vulnerability. Almagro: Lone win was Barcelona 2014. Again, an upset and early indicator. Lopez: 2003 Basel on indoor HC; 2010 Queen’s on grass; 2014 Shanghai and 2015 in Cincy. Cincy was won in a 3rd set TB, I think, which was again, a surprise. Verdasco: 2012 Madrid on clay; 2015 Miami; and, well…you know. Madrid doesn’t tell that much, and everyone beat Rafa last year, pretty much. The big one was the other day. In sum: I don’t think looking at the Spanish players tells that much. It’s the overall picture that isn’t too pretty.

Well, apart from Ferrer, the others practically had zero victories against Nadal before 2014. Even in Ferrer's case you can put some victories in context (AO 2011, for example). At least all this tells the (now clear to everyone) story that Nadal's level have dropped significantly.

And, yes, back to the original point (you'll see where I wanna get), Almagro, Lopez, Verdasco... on fast hards and grass, they should at least put up a fight (I mean, pre 2014). But the fact is that they did not (at least in the matches I watched, it was never a contest...). But (connecting to your point), maybe they were lacking that aggression factor that would the only thing that could counter the intimidation the #1 or #2 imposed on them. These numbers, as I suspected from the start, support the original point I made (in fact, recalled, the point was made by others).

 

 

 

[Federberg]

Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Mastoor wrote:
From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don’t remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco’s matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal? To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka’s effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

Mastoor, to be honest, I think this is fanboyism bordering on the childish. Verdasco and Ferrer played so hard against Nole and not Rafa? Verdasco is 4-8 v. Novak, and they mostly met early in Nole’s career. Ferrer is 5-16.</blockquote>
Ferrer is a mental giant against everyone ranked below him and a mental midget against everyone ranked above him. That said I think it especially applies to Nadal for the reasons federberg mentioned.

Does it though? His record against Federer is much worse than against Rafa

 

[Denis]

Denis wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Mastoor wrote:
From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don’t remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco’s matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal? To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka’s effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

Mastoor, to be honest, I think this is fanboyism bordering on the childish. Verdasco and Ferrer played so hard against Nole and not Rafa? Verdasco is 4-8 v. Novak, and they mostly met early in Nole’s career. Ferrer is 5-16.</blockquote>
Ferrer is a mental giant against everyone ranked below him and a mental midget against everyone ranked above him. That said I think it especially applies to Nadal for the reasons federberg mentioned.</blockquote>
Does it though? His record against Federer is much worse than against Rafa

Winning and trying your best are two different things, we are discussing the latter. Has Ferrer tanked matches against Fed or admitted such things? I don't know, I tend to avoid watching their matches. Same applies for Ferrer-Nadal where it not that Nadal was struggling at the time and I had nothing to do so I saw both those matches referred to.

 

[Carol]

Ferru doesn't tank against anyone but to discuss about it is not worth it , it's completely silly, move on!

 

[Denis]

Ferru doesn’t tank against anyone but to discuss about it is not worth it , it’s completely silly, move on!

He said as much himself.

Not that it matters with you. You will say Nadal will win RG when he is 80 and in a wheelchair.

 

[Mastoor]

Mastoor wrote:
From my, No1e fan point of view, both Verdasco and Ferrer play out of skin against No1e and I don’t remember such effort of the 2 Spaniards against Rafa except in 2 Verdasco’s matches AO 2009 and 2016. When is that when Ferrer played out of his skin against Nadal? To be fair, I must say, that Wawrinka’s effort against Federer until last couple of years was even sadder story. He would just freeze like a deer in headlights and there was no match at all.

Mastoor, to be honest, I think this is fanboyism bordering on the childish. Verdasco and Ferrer played so hard against Nole and not Rafa? Verdasco is 4-8 v. Novak, and they mostly met early in Nole’s career. Ferrer is 5-16.

That means they have better h2h against No1e than they have against Rafa, not to mention that most of 6 matches Ferrer won against Rafa are when Rafa was either injured or during period when everyone was beating him including Dustin Brown, apart from the first Ferrer's win over Rafa that was when younger player was still a teenager. But as I said there is a worse memory of the sport and that is Stan the man vs Fed until couple of years ago.

 

[Carol]

Carol wrote:
Ferru doesn’t tank against anyone but to discuss about it is not worth it , it’s completely silly, move on!

He said as much himself. Not that it matters with you. You will say Nadal will win RG when he is 80 and in a wheelchair.

When something is out of context and just a speculation of some Rafa's antis  then it's not worth it to discuss. And look who is talking, you will say Novak will win the AO, RG, Wimbledon and USO when he is 80 and in a wheelchair lol