This must be the weakest quartet of semifinalists in a Masters in awhile. Only Alcaraz has ever been in the top 10. Official rankings: 2, 20, 65, 121. Live rankings: 2, 16, 32, 51.
Yes, Karatsev has risen 70 ranks in this tournament.
If we're fair to Karatsev, he's been as high as 14. We know he's a dangerous player. And to say that Alcaraz has "been in the Top 10" does undersell him a bit. He's been #1, he is currently #2, and he is the defending champion, so there is that, right?
Look at the draw. You could say, I think, that the top half was loaded. Alcaraz has already gone through Dimitrov, Zverev and Khachanov. And Alcaraz still has to play Coric, who we know is a very talented player. But for injuries, I think we all believe he'd have done better, and may yet feature well. In the bottom half, who went out early? In no particular order: FAA, Rune, Ruud, Medvedev, Fritz, Tsitsipas, Tiafoe, oh, and the supposedly dangerous Cerundolo. Did I miss anyone? Out of all that, what you have left is Karatsev and Struff. Who you going to blame for that? I'd blame basically everyone just named above, if you think this underrates this Madrid Open. Or, maybe we just got two dark horses for the French Open.