London ATP YEC - Djokovic v. Nadal SF

[Billie]

I completely forgot what today was.  A side note from the tennis and a little Serbian customs lesson.  Today is Nole's "slava", The Holy Archangel Michael (Arandjelovdan in Serbian.   ("celebration";  Cyrillic: слава) is a Orthodox Christian tradition of the ritual glorification of one's family's patron saint. The family celebrates it annually on the saint's feast day.   It is a big deal in any Serbian family.

 

[ClayDeath]

pathetic performance by Rafa. I refuse to watch him play with this level of game and fitness. that means that I did not watch and I am not going to watch. I just cant bear to watch him play with this game and  with this significantly reduced fitness and physicality.

djokovic hit 12 winners and just 1 unforced error in the first 3 games alone. it is damn near zero competition for djokovic. it is like me playing a 4 year old in chess.

yesterday's first set against ferru should have told the story to all the objective observers: the match meant nothing to ferru as he had been eliminated already. he should have been picked off easily. not just because Rafa had beaten him 23 times already. ferru's spirit should have been picked off easily and quickly.

rafa led comfortably in that first set and then would proceed to get pushed around by ferru to lose the set. he won just 2 points in the breaker. rafa got tight for no reason at all. and then fought a little bit to take the next 2 sets in a totally meaningless match except for the money. a chance to make more money in one more match.

I am surprised today's score is not 6-1, 6-1. rafa said yesterday that he may be tired today. that was his way of basically telling the world that he was not going to have much of a chance.

like MikeOne told you, this is also not a new development. rafa has been getting killed by djokovic on the hard courts for a while now. only now he gets killed by him on clay also.

 

beating a couple or 3 players that you have owned all your life does not constitute that he is back. in fact after this match he fell back even further. djokovic has now taken 8 of the last 9 matches comfortably.

and rafa is talking about vacations already. now to be fair, he did say that he has taken too much time off already this year so he wont take a long vacation.

at the end of the day you still have somebody that can only really show rio and hamburg titles. that should not be acceptable to him.

until he and his team embrace clay and produce a huge work ethic on the fitness front, I am not going to be able to conclude that he is back.

 

he accomplished nothing by being here other than pick up some pocket money. and it was pocket change for him. he could have made $10 million by doing a few commercials. I would have skipped this event to go start extensive work on clay to find the ground game again and also to start a very serious fitness program.

especially since he has already said more than just one time that he wont be ready for the Australian open. clay is the only place where he can start to stage his real and true comeback. he needs to start preparing for his clay season now. it is clay or it is nothing.

all these were a few baby steps for a better 2016. nothing more. he should have lost to rosol in the first match in basel but rosol choked it away. he did lose to 35 year old Federer who he had beaten 23 times. he even had the momentum by taking the 2nd set. just could not seal the deal.

andy checked out early here and beating stan and ferru was not a big deal for him. he has been healthy for well over a year now. he is an all time great with huge head to head advantages over these three. stan was off his game and ferru kept him on the court for nearly 3 hours.

translation: he cant win unless he can win the long rally. djokovic again controlled the baseline. only it keeps getting easier and easier for him. he has no problem kicking his man when he is down. it has become a little too easy for him now.

and to win the long rally, you have to put in the work like Djokovic is doing.

rafa took a few baby steps forward but then took 10 steps back today. he has to go and try to fix this. the only place where he can start to fix his issues is clay.

it wont be easy there also. against the top players, he could only break serve less than 20% of the times on clay this year. he cant return well and he cant serve well. to put that in perspective, examine his stats against his opponents in 2008 at RG. he was breaking there serve nearly 66% of the time. that is 2 out of every three.

serving issues are more severe now since he does not have the ground game to back up the weak serve. there is also added pressure on his own serve since he cant return effectively.

people and the reporters keep saying he is back. we all want him to get back to being rafa again but he is not back. does rafa want to get back to being rafa again?

I am glad he is healthy and played a few matches toward the end of this year but I would have skipped world tour finals. he said he thought about skipping since he was not ready and his heart was not in it. he knew he had no chance here to win it. he could not do it even on his best day.

these demolition jobs at the hand of djokovic are probably going to have a lasting effect on him. people forget that rafa comes equipped with fragile emotions.

I am really heart broken and also pissed that rafa has done this himself. it is what it is. he lost the hunger and the relentless drive a while back and it was going to have an effect on his game and his fitness. it is not rocket science.

he has to decide quickly what he wants to achieve in 2016. he has to set goals and then make them happen.

he said he will go to Rio and then he will see what happens after that. or something to that effect. I would start targeting clay right away and set some goals.

he needs concrete goals and it all has to start with very serious work on the fitness and physicality front. djokovic has already been talking about how much extra work he wants to do on the fitness front in the off season. he also said he was going to set new goals.

 

 

[MikeOne]

claydeath, even young mentally unstable, physically unfit Novak was beating prime Nadal on hard courts. I don't care which version of Nadal you put in front of today's Djokovic, Novak will beat him. Djokovic is a nightmare matchup for Rafa so stop making up excuses. Remember 2011? Rafa had possibly his best year ever in 2010 (3 majors) and in 2011, Djokovic beat him in 7 straight finals? this was Rafa AT HIS BEST.. he just has nowhere to go against an at his best Djokovic, period.  No excuses, Rafa has been playing very very well as of late, Novak has his #, end of story. I heard excuses back in 2011 and now hearing them again, same as the excuses made for why Federer lost to Nadal. In the end, some players match up well against others and this is almost impossible to overcome. When Novak is at his very best, Nadal is in real trouble - 1. Novak devours Nadal's serve 2. Novak runs down Nadal's angles, which usually create space against other opponents 3. Novak takes the ball early and has a high strike zone, high topspin shots don't bother him 4. Novak doesn't get tired 5. Novak is mentally strong. I don't care which version of Nadal (hungry, fit, strong, prime etc..) is on the other side, Nadal's game simply is at Djokovic's game's mercy!

Nadal needs to serve much bigger and flatten out his shots more, something which is simply not part of his normal game and very uncomfortable for Rafa to change. I think Rafa ended the year on a very positive note.

 

 

[ClayDeath]

claydeath, even young mentally unstable, physically unfit Novak was beating prime Nadal on hard courts. I don’t care which version of Nadal you put in front of today’s Djokovic, Novak will beat him. Djokovic is a nightmare matchup for Rafa so stop making up excuses. Remember 2011? Rafa had possibly his best year ever in 2010 (3 majors) and in 2011, Djokovic beat him in 7 straight finals? this was Rafa AT HIS BEST.. he just has nowhere to go against an at his best Djokovic, period. No excuses, Rafa has been playing very very well as of late, Novak has his #, end of story. I heard excuses back in 2011 and now hearing them again, same as the excuses made for why Federer lost to Nadal. In the end, some players match up well against others and this is almost impossible to overcome. When Novak is at his very best, Nadal is in real trouble – 1. Novak devours Nadal’s serve 2. Novak runs down Nadal’s angles, which usually create space against other opponents 3. Novak takes the ball early and has a high strike zone, high topspin shots don’t bother him 4. Novak doesn’t get tired 5. Novak is mentally strong. I don’t care which version of Nadal (hungry, fit, strong, prime etc..) is on the other side, Nadal’s game simply is at Djokovic’s game’s mercy! Nadal needs to serve much bigger and flatten out his shots more, something which is simply not part of his normal game and very uncomfortable for Rafa to change. I think Rafa ended the year on a very positive note.

agreed.

 

at least we are healthy for a damn change.

usually the complete domination of the tour used to leave him worn and torn by the end of the year.

and this is an opportunity and a challenge to relish. the challenge is right in front of him. he just has to embrace the challenge.

I don't think it is the serve. his serve is under more pressure for a number of reasons:

1. he cant back his serve with his once robust ground game
2. his inability to make an impression on their serve leaves his serve under even more pressure
3. you simply cant win in this sport unless you can break. even in a breaker you need a mini break.

he himself has acknowledged that he has to come back with a better return of serve in 2016.

 

still I think the #1 issue is fitness and physicality. he lost significant ground there and he just has to get it back. he has to put in the time.

given his style of play and his heavy topspin game, supreme fitness and physicality is an absolute must. that has to be priority #1.

and if it is not then get ready for 2016 that looks very much like 2015. with the reduced levels of fitness and physicality he is also one injury away now from exiting the sport.

if he can get that back then he can fight to the death again out there. rest of the game will follow.

 

more later.

good to see you MikeOne.

 

[ClayDeath]

great post MikeOne.

there is still really only one man who can stop djokovic. his name is Rafa.

and it would have to be on clay.

 

[britbox]

claydeath, even young mentally unstable, physically unfit Novak was beating prime Nadal on hard courts. I don’t care which version of Nadal you put in front of today’s Djokovic, Novak will beat him. Djokovic is a nightmare matchup for Rafa so stop making up excuses. Remember 2011? Rafa had possibly his best year ever in 2010 (3 majors) and in 2011, Djokovic beat him in 7 straight finals? this was Rafa AT HIS BEST.. he just has nowhere to go against an at his best Djokovic, period. No excuses, Rafa has been playing very very well as of late, Novak has his #, end of story. I heard excuses back in 2011 and now hearing them again, same as the excuses made for why Federer lost to Nadal. In the end, some players match up well against others and this is almost impossible to overcome. When Novak is at his very best, Nadal is in real trouble – 1. Novak devours Nadal’s serve 2. Novak runs down Nadal’s angles, which usually create space against other opponents 3. Novak takes the ball early and has a high strike zone, high topspin shots don’t bother him 4. Novak doesn’t get tired 5. Novak is mentally strong. I don’t care which version of Nadal (hungry, fit, strong, prime etc..) is on the other side, Nadal’s game simply is at Djokovic’s game’s mercy! Nadal needs to serve much bigger and flatten out his shots more, something which is simply not part of his normal game and very uncomfortable for Rafa to change. I think Rafa ended the year on a very positive note.

Good post. I'll dig out the Sky interview where they were asking Nole what his favourite shot was. To paraphrase, he said he preferred the forehand but against Nadal it was all DTL and cross court backhand because of the way the Nadal spin sat for him.

 

[ClayDeath]

great post MikeOne. there is still really only one man who can stop djokovic. his name is Rafa. and it would have to be on clay.

rafa's spin sat there for him at the 2013 U.S. Open final also? and how about the Rogers Cup that year just before the U.S. Open.

it is not all Djokovic. Rafa stopped caring and stopped improving and now is just a sitting duck against djokovic.

Rafa just does not have the will, the game, and the fitness to fight this guy tooth and nail.

if total demolition and embarrassment at the hands of djokovic in 8 of the last 9 matches wont re-ignite rafa's fighting spirit then nothing will.

I am afraid I have to side with Sampras but Sampras is not the only one who is saying this.

Rafa is pretty much done. this is his retirement circuit.

if you honestly believe that he can win monte carlo masters and rome next year then go to my fearless 15 thread and make that prediction.

broken shoe is there making his RG predictions. he is giving it to djokovic.

that shows how much confidence rafa's fans have for him even at his go to slam.

have you seen anyone making any honest, objective predictions at all for rafa other than "he is back".

you saw what nalbandian said. same thing I have been saying. it is clay in 2016 or it is the exit.

he will get tired of being humiliated by djokovic in 2016 and retire at the end of the year.

retirement circuit can only last so long. this is not all djokovic. even aging ferru with no weapons--in a meangless match---hustled rafa for nearly 3 hours yesterday. stan has 2 wins over him. fognini has beaten him at least 3 times. even on clay.

brown--ranked #105--blasted him right off the courts at Wimbledon.

rafa faded mentally and physically long before he showed up for his match against djokovic.

rafa is just going to have to decide once and for all in the off season if he wants to chase down djokovic. that is his competition.

there will be exactly zero masters for rafa in 2016, let alone that one slam that I keep thinking he has left in him. he cant get through djokovic.

djokovic took 6 masters this year and more than likely will take another 6 next year.

others do not stand in his way like djokovic does. he can stop unmotivated rafa at every entrance.

he has had a few matches under his belt and some playing time. one would have expected a better fight.

instead it was a total disaster. djokovic won nearly 100% of the first serve points. it was no contest at all.

it is not the serve. it is every damn thing. the return is not there. the backhand is not there. the forehand has lost its potency. the movement has no life and no spring. he has suboptimal endurance at best and a significant loss of his physicality.

even on clay this year he could barely break the top players 20% of the time.

now think about why and how he could have suffered such heavy casualties on every single front. it was no accident.

he simply has not been working very hard and when he has been working, it has not been working smart.

there was a price to be paid for that and that is what you have seen for well over a year now.

some experts have been throwing out the "preparation" word very diplomatically but one has to catch it.

but I don't have to be diplomatic since I am not going to run into him. I am also not in the broadcast booth.

I can see what is going on. I see a shell of a player. I also see a player that refuses to change a single thing.

I also see what Sampras must have seen. he is playing like he is retiring.

I saw a bit of a renewed fighting spirit but I have seen no significant improvements in his game or in his fitness and his physicality.

that is not going to get it done on clay in 2016.

monte carlo is 141 days away. he has some time to prepare.

can he do it? can he make a difference in monte carlo, Barcelona, and rome?

what is your best, objective guess based on the trends in place?

I can change my probabilities slightly: I say 95% chance he is done and 5% chance that he will show up prepared to fight back and hit back hard on clay in 2016.

 

[Billie]

OK Clay Death, that is a bit too much negativity towards Rafa, IMO.  Honestly the post USO tournaments have never been Rafa's hunting ground.  He either feels tired, injured and the surfaces don't suit him.  It is a fact for all previous years, this year is no exception.   Rafa may have taken a longer time than usually to come back from injury, but now he is healthy and will go into next season without any injuries to worry about.  That is positive, isn't it?  Frankly when was the last year that Rafa played all 4 majors and the whole season, from January till November?  I can't remember, perhaps 2010.  He already has a lot of miles in his legs and he needs all of his physical strength to battle through the whole season.  Any player needs it.   You are hung up on that summer of 2013 like that is the norm for Rafa, it is not.  I am sure that he will be preparing for clay season next year, that is what his success comes from.   He is not getting younger, but that is true for any player.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

rafa has played over 80 matches in singles this year, plus around 18-20 doubles matches..100+ matches in 2015..

zero injuries, fit, out there, just him and his opponent..what happened ?. zero majors, zero masters.   his game is ragged, the only plus point is getting his rank back into the top 8, like mr clay death says..2016 will reveal the final truth of weather he is capable of winning the big trophies once again..i wish he didn't play this indian itpl circus in December,   surely a proper break and then a good pre-season would be better ??.

i'd like to see it happen, rafa in some big finals once again, on sunny days, in front of a packed out stadium and an excited tv audience.

 

[ClayDeath]

rafa has played over 80 matches in singles this year, plus around 18-20 doubles matches..100+ matches in 2015.. zero injuries, fit, out there, just him and his opponent..what happened ?. zero majors, zero masters. his game is ragged, the only plus point is getting his rank back into the top 8, like mr clay death says..2016 will reveal the final truth of weather he is capable of winning the big trophies once again..i wish he didn’t play this indian itpl circus in December,

surely a proper break and then a good pre-season would be better ??. i’d like to see it happen, rafa in some big finals once again, on sunny days, in front of a packed out stadium and an excited tv audience.

great post as usual.

 

 

it is not going to happen. he wont even get into the finals of masters, let alone have a shot at one. not with the current trends and current dynamics in place.

if he wont change a thing and then go waste his extremely limited time chasing a few bucks that he does not need then just get ready to say hello to another year just like 2015.

he is talking vacations again while djokovic is talking improved fitness and more work on his game in the off season.

 

ever wonder why guys like djokovic and Federer never get injured? also ever wonder why they are the ones at the top of the sport today.

 

Rafa is my player and always will be until the end of all times but I can see what is going on. he does not really care to win anymore. he gave up the big game hunt a while back.

and I cant hold that against him. it is his life. he spent an enormous amount of physical, mental, and emotional capital chasing down Federer and carving out his own immortality. he dominated clay for nearly a decade. the dude is spent.

 

all this idle talk that he and his camp produces is for public consumption for the fans and the sponsors. and he is still in the sport. so he and his camp have to say the right thing.

the dude is spent and he is done. he could have overcome some of his battles but the mountain that he has to climb is just too damn steep.

this was an indoor, climate control climate environment but outdoors rafa is spent after 40 minutes of practice.

gilles simon called it right when he saw him in paris. he said rafa looked terrible fitness and physicality wise. simon must have had plenty of good looks at rafa. in 2014 he (simon) would hit 60 winners against him in rome. and this is simon we are talking about.

Rafa lost nearly 100% of the points on Djokovic's first serve today. he cant get the ball back and he has no way to back up his own weak serve since his ground game is at 30% capacity at best.

you saw what berdych did to him in Melbourne. rafa won just 10% of the points from the baseline. he got demolished by berdych.

all this is no accident. rafa refuses to put in the hard yards and he refuses to change a damn thing.

he even said it. he said he is just going to do it his way. that sums it up.

unless there is a significant change in training and the work on fitness, 2016 may even end up being worse than 2015. I am seeing exactly zero indication of any significant changes.

you should see the headlines around the world today. they are not saying that he was derailed by djokovic.

they are saying stuff like "djokovic swats nadal aside". like he is a hapless mosquito.

all these people who say he is back fail to go to my "fearless 15" thread and make a single prediction regarding what he can win in 2016.

only one entry: broken shoe said that djokovic will win RG. meaning forget about rafa at RG in 2016.

djokovic stands at the gate of all the masters. rafa does not have the will, the game, and the fitness to get through djokovic on any surface.

so zero masters. that also means zero slams since djokovic also stands at the gates of all the slams.

rio is a joke. he faced nobody ranked higher than #25 there. I cant even call that a title for him. he owns 9 RG crowns and now has to go to rio and hamburg to win titles.

you can see clearly now why I am worried to death. there is just not enough time left.

he has had plenty of time off. he has been injured 4 out of last 6 years. that is more than enough time off. and this year he lost early in all of the big events. so there is more time off.

but if he does not want it anymore then he does not want it. nothing can  be done about it.

I would have thought that serena, Federer, and djokovic would offer plenty of inspiration but I am not seeing it.

 

[Mastoor]

How you people make every thread about Rafa, his past and his future? Wasn't at least this one about his match against No1e witch Rafa lost?

I didn't have any opinion of the outcome before the match because I wasn't sure how much No1e can lift up his level from his match against Berdych. Luckily he lifted it high enough. I am very happy about No1e's game in the semifinal and therefore very enthusiastic before the final.

 

 

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^I meant to poast this in the fall of rafa thread, but I goofed up. hurr durr.

 

[ClayDeath]

rafa has played over 80 matches in singles this year, plus around 18-20 doubles matches..100+ matches in 2015.. zero injuries, fit, out there, just him and his opponent..what happened ?. zero majors, zero masters. his game is ragged, the only plus point is getting his rank back into the top 8, like mr clay death says..2016 will reveal the final truth of weather he is capable of winning the big trophies once again..i wish he didn’t play this indian itpl circus in December,

surely a proper break and then a good pre-season would be better ??. i’d like to see it happen, rafa in some big finals once again, on sunny days, in front of a packed out stadium and an excited tv audience.

 

I should have made this post in the fall of rafa thread but I was just trying to reply to somebody.

 

I may just copy and paste it at that other thread. it looks like people are complaining that we are talking about Rafa here.

no worries.