Kei Nishikori: will he challenge the Big 3(/4)?

[Federberg]

He will probably be just one more Ferrer, always good, but never best of the best.

I think I would back Ferrer to go further than Andy

 

[tented]

At the moment, Kei is considered by the bookies the third favorite to win RG, after Novak and Rafa, ahead of the usual suspects Roger and Andy.
I am expecting the numbers to keep changing depending on the outcome of Madrid and Rome, though, although not dramatically.

Andy Murray? A usual suspect at RG? :laydownlaughing

I'll happily eat my hat on the laughter though

Andy is always picked by the bookies in the top 5 even at RG, mainly because of his previous slam titles. I know it is ridiculous somewhat, but that is the fact.

It makes sense. They're bookies, not tennis analysts. It's a numbers game, not technical analysis.

 

[Kieran]

Andy reached the semis last year, his second time. That's better than Kei has ever done, from memory...

 

[tented]

Andy reached the semis last year, his second time. That's better than Kei has ever done, from memory...

True, and it's this kind of information which the bookies use, but ultimately it's misleading. Raise your hand if you think Andy has a genuine shot at winning RG. Exactly.

It's not impossible -- Rafa, Novak, and Roger could lose before the SFs, for example, which would provide a huge window of opportunity -- but it's not as likely to actually happen as the bookies would have us believe.

 

[Denis]

Andy reached the semis last year, his second time. That's better than Kei has ever done, from memory...

Andy has never won a clay event nor even reached a masters clay final. Kei has done both and is younger.

 

[tented]

I think Kei's game has been under appreciated. Many posters suggest that he lacks fire power or is too injury prone.

He is injury prone, and probably too much so to enable him to achieve true greatness. And this has nothing to do with whether or not he's under appreciated; it's a matter of record how many times he's been injured, and how many tournaments he has missed.

 

[Kieran]

I agree, Kei is a good prospect, but Andy has been doing okay in Paris too. Wouldn't surprise me if he went further than Nishi again this year. But certainly, the unknown aspect of Kei, that relates to his potential, is exciting. And he has Chang in in his corner, which is perfect for clay. Andy is treading water in that respect, comparatively...

 

[Fiero425]

I agree, Kei is a good prospect, but Andy has been doing okay in Paris too. Wouldn't surprise me if he went further than Nishi again this year. But certainly, the unknown aspect of Kei, that relates to his potential, is exciting. And he has Chang in in his corner, which is perfect for clay. Andy is treading water in that respect, comparatively...

The odds say the top tier is vulnerable; getting older, lower tier hungrier, and the Big 3 have lived a very charmed life with them taking most of the majors and Masters in this era! This has been so unprecedented with the elite usually tuckering out by the fall and allowing Nalbandian, Davydenko, and other alias personalities to "take a biggie!" :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kirijax]

Murray is no slouch on clay. He just has never played too many low-tier clay tournaments to have the clay resume. But with Nadal playing like crap and Federer struggling to make it past the fourth rounds, if Djokovic is miraculously tripped up somewhere, I wouldn't be surprised to see Murray as a surprise FO winner.

Maybe everyone's opinion will change after he wins that awesome clay tourney in Munich.

 

[tented]

Back to Kei ...

Here's his complete history at RG:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Kei-Nishikori.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=520#

In two out of five appearances, he ran into Nadal and Djokovic -- understandable losses.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

all this speculative banter means its defo gonna be a nishikori v murray French open final. (innit).

 

[Moxie]

Back to Kei ...

Here's his complete history at RG:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Kei-Nishikori.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=520#

In two out of five appearances, he ran into Nadal and Djokovic -- understandable losses.

Good point there. I have been with those that put Nishikori as the 3rd biggest threat at RG this year. And I'm not sure if his fitness is perhaps an old worry. Obviously, he ran out of gas at the USO final last year, but not until he'd red-lined it for a few rounds, and hit a Cilic who was playing out of his mind. He's showing calm and form. I think he's surely making his move this year. I feel he's getting steadier and sturdier, and, given the competition coming up, he is the most likely next big challenger, to answer the OP.

 

[herios]

Maybe everyone's opinion will change after he wins that awesome clay tourney in Munich.

I can tell you right away, that mine will not.

 

[Moxie]

Maybe everyone's opinion will change after he wins that awesome clay tourney in Munich.

I can tell you right away, that mine will not.

And for that very intractability, I hope he proves you wrong.

 

[herios]

Maybe everyone's opinion will change after he wins that awesome clay tourney in Munich.

I can tell you right away, that mine will not.

And for that very intractability, I hope he proves you wrong.

Clay will always be a weaker surface for him, win or lose in Munich.

 

[herios]

Back to Kei ...

Here's his complete history at RG:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Kei-Nishikori.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=520#

In two out of five appearances, he ran into Nadal and Djokovic -- understandable losses.

Back then, Kei was not yet as the that level like currently is. He has improved a lot since, and on that same note, in the last 2 slams (USO and AO), he lost to the eventual winner. These last 2 runs are even more significant.

 

[El Dude]

I really like Kei and enjoyed seeing him demolish Rafa a year ago. And yes, Kieran, we know what would have happened if he didn't come up lame. Matches can turn, but Kei was totally dominating Rafa.

I'm surprised to see people say that Kei doesn't have enough weapons - I think he does. In a way he reminds me a bit of a Baby Sampras. What he seems to lack is stamina which makes me think he'll never win a Slam, but could be the best candidate outside of current winners to take a Masters (with Raonic and Dimitrov right behind him). That said, he did make it to a Slam final, so if he did it once he could do it again. As some have mentioned, he was out of gas by then - but I think he lost more because Cilic was playing at an absurd level. He was unbeatable, really.

 

[El Dude]

It is also worth mentioning that Kei is already 25 years old so chances are this is as good as he's going to get. I suppose, perhaps, he can work on little things and his stamina could improve, but it is rare--even in this day and age--that players take another step up after 25. We should recognize exceptions like David Ferrer for what they are: exceptions and not the rule.

 

[Kieran]

I really like Kei and enjoyed seeing him demolish Rafa a year ago. And yes, Kieran, we know what would have happened if he didn't come up lame. Matches can turn, but Kei was totally dominating Rafa.

Listen, I'm in broad agreement about Kei, but we don't know. We can presume and we can give him great credit because he deserves it, but we don't know. We can point to a million matches involving players who were injured and there's a loud hue and cry when anybody deflects attention from the victor.

He's 25 now, and I agree, he won't get much better, but he may solidify what he has. I don't see him as a baby Sampras, but I agree, he has enough weapons. My only criticism is he makes heavy weather of things, but really, he's comparatively inexperienced at the very highest levels - that is, week 2 of a slam. He's definitely the one player of that generation who has suprior discipline and heart to the rest of them, though...

 

[Kieran]

in the last 2 slams (USO and AO), he lost to the eventual winner. These last 2 runs are even more significant.

Nishi was beaten by Stan in Oz, and quite heavily, too...