Kei Nishikori: will he challenge the Big 3(/4)?

[Denis]

With threads on random players like Gael Monfils, I thought it be worthwile to have a thread on a player which might actually make an impact. Also I think Kei's game has been under appreciated. Many posters suggest that he lacks fire power or is too injury prone.

Kei:
1) Actually has a really strong serve
2) Has one of the best backhands in the game
3) is incredibly fast on his feet
4) takes the ball so early, he makes Agassi looks like Nadal
5) has great variety in his shots, and is really good at the down the line backhand and forehand.
6) goes for his shots and does not unnecessarily grind

Also nehmeth's post triggered me to start this thread before I yet again derail the ATP general news thread:

Buried further down in the article is this:

"While the Madrid Open is a mandatory ATP event, Djokovic has earned an exemption under the rules given his length of service and is allowed to skip one mandatory event without any penalties. The ATP rules allow a player to skip one mandatory event if he has (1) played more than 600 matches in his career, (2) been on tour for 12 years, or (3) reaches the age of 31. If a player reaches all three milestones, as Federer has, he may skip any and all Masters without penalty."

It is amazing how long nole has been around and how far he has come.

While no "reason" is necessary, the ugly trophy, the even uglier owner of the event, and the clay on cement surface should be reasons enough. (Not to mention it lacks prestige) :snicker

It would be nice to see Nadal and Nishi battle it out again, with the samurai looking to finish what he started last year. At this point in the season, it looks as though Kei may be the bigger obstacle to Novak's RG aspirations.

http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/12773199/tennis-kei-nishikori-leading-candidate-foil-rafael-nadal-novak-djokovic-french-open-hopes
(interesting observations)

Thoughts?

 

[Riotbeard]

Great thread! I am about to get on a 28 hour cross-country train, and am already sleep deprived, so forgive my thought if they make no sense.

I agree with your list of positives, and Kei is definitely my favorite of his generation. On the other hand, I think you leave out the big question mark for nishikori, durability. Can Kei battle through a tough grandslam draw? I actually think he is close, but still unproven.

That being said I think more people like Kei than you are giving credit!

 

[Puppet Master]

Kei has really shown us his will to win, and the belief, his main problem at this point is (some may disagree ) he hasn't had enough cracks at the big 3/4. I think he has had 19 meetings with the big 4 combined and has managed to win 5 matches. (Including a 5-0 h2h with Nadal) I still think he needs some time before we can see him at his absolute best, but he really needs to win something big this year to convince me. Although I like his game and I hope he makes it, and the people who say he lacks firepower, don't say it for no reason, he does tend to hit puff balls when he is not on.

 

[herios]

Kei has not yet matured completely mentally. In the last few years, the challengers for the top 4, once they arrived to that 4 spot, usually rolled over (see Berdych, Tsonga), not being able to sustain and break repeatedly the stronghold of the leaders, aside the occasional upset.
He also mentioned that he needed to get used to the fact that he is a top 5 player.
You need the killer instinct active all the time, once you are there at crunch time.
But his records is getting better, in the big events, last 2 slams he lost to the eventual winner.
I think if he will be injury free, he will feature in the SF at RG at least.
Next week will be a big test for him., to defend his ground a final birth in Madrid. Being seeded 4 there, with Rafa 3 they cannot meet only in the final. Would both of them make it there?

 

[Kieran]

I like Kei, mostly because his attitude is so honest. He's a player who leaves it all out there. Of course, he needs to win big before we see if he can back that up and become a potentially great player, and this might be difficult. he makes hard work of things, sometimes, but certainly, he's come on fairly rapidly under Chang...

 

[Federberg]

I love the way he plays. If he hits puff balls sometimes I think that's more to do with his physical condition on the court. This guy tries to dominate points. An absolute stunner of a backhand, second only to Novak's in the top 10 in my opinion (back in your box Murray). When he's on, his first serve is decent enough to hold it's own, it's never going to be a weapon. But when he's off it's usually signalled by his first serve in particular going off. I think he has the belief against the top guys, but as Berd-man has shown the other side is very important too. You need to always take care of business and get to where you should be, and in that respect I would actually argue that Berdych does that at least as well as him.

His potential is such that if he gets to a quarters or semis, I would put money on him to progress while I would shut my eyes if I had to count on Tomas against one of the big boys. Very very exciting player to watch when he's on. Loved his match against Novak at Flushing last year..

 

[Denis]

Kei has really shown us his will to win, and the belief, his main problem at this point is (some may disagree ) he hasn't had enough cracks at the big 3/4. I think he has had 19 meetings with the big 4 combined and has managed to win 5 matches. (Including a 5-0 h2h with Nadal) I still think he needs some time before we can see him at his absolute best, but he really needs to win something big this year to convince me. Although I like his game and I hope he makes it, and the people who say he lacks firepower, don't say it for no reason, he does tend to hit puff balls when he is not on.

I agree, he has not played the Big 4 enough yet. The h2h with Nadal is a bit misleading considering last year's Madrid final.

Kei - Novak: 2 - 3

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N552&oId=D643

Kei - Nadal: 0 - 7

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N552&oId=N409

Kei - Federer: 2 - 3

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N552&oId=F324

Kei - Murray: 1 - 3

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N552&oId=MC10

 

[Kieran]

^^ It's not "misleading", it's what it is.

But surprisingly he's done well against Roger, who's usually the crusher of anybody with a faint heart. Obviously, Kei doesn't have one. He reached the US Open final last year a bit knackered, and underperformed, while not trying to take anything away from Cough Drop. If we compare him with his immediate contemporaries, like Grigor or Milos, he seems to have much more going for him. The difficulty this generation of lads has is the lack of opportunities. They need to force their way in, not wait around. He's suited to most of the surfaces and is competitive on them all. It'll be very inetersting to see how he goes in the next few weeks, because he could go very far in Paris...

 

[Denis]

^^ It's not "misleading", it's what it is.

But surprisingly he's done well against Roger, who's usually the crusher of anybody with a faint heart. Obviously, Kei doesn't have one. He reached the US Open final last year a bit knackered, and underperformed, while not trying to take anything away from Cough Drop. If we compare him with his immediate contemporaries, like Grigor or Milos, he seems to have much more going for him. The difficulty this generation of lads has is the lack of opportunities. They need to force their way in, not wait around. He's suited to most of the surfaces and is competitive on them all. It'll be very inetersting to see how he goes in the next few weeks, because he could go very far in Paris...

Last year's win in Madrid has a huge asterisk behind it and you know it.

Still, even if Kei would have been able to finish business 1 - 6 is still pretty convincing from Nadal's side. Some meetings very early on though.

 

[Denis]

^^ It's not "misleading", it's what it is.

But surprisingly he's done well against Roger, who's usually the crusher of anybody with a faint heart. Obviously, Kei doesn't have one. He reached the US Open final last year a bit knackered, and underperformed, while not trying to take anything away from Cough Drop. If we compare him with his immediate contemporaries, like Grigor or Milos, he seems to have much more going for him. The difficulty this generation of lads has is the lack of opportunities. They need to force their way in, not wait around. He's suited to most of the surfaces and is competitive on them all. It'll be very inetersting to see how he goes in the next few weeks, because he could go very far in Paris...

This is spot on. They are unlucky in a way to find themselves with all time greats Nadal, Novak and Federer. I think Kei has the goods, and as you say, much more so than the others. Especially Dimitrov :cover

 

[Kieran]

^^ It's not "misleading", it's what it is.

But surprisingly he's done well against Roger, who's usually the crusher of anybody with a faint heart. Obviously, Kei doesn't have one. He reached the US Open final last year a bit knackered, and underperformed, while not trying to take anything away from Cough Drop. If we compare him with his immediate contemporaries, like Grigor or Milos, he seems to have much more going for him. The difficulty this generation of lads has is the lack of opportunities. They need to force their way in, not wait around. He's suited to most of the surfaces and is competitive on them all. It'll be very inetersting to see how he goes in the next few weeks, because he could go very far in Paris...

Last year's win in Madrid has a huge asterisk behind it and you know it.

Still, even if Kei would have been able to finish business 1 - 6 is still pretty convincing from Nadal's side. Some meetings very early on though.

Oh forgive me, I thought putting asterisks and excuses behind victories was verboten.

Nobody knows what woulda happened, but yeah, even still his record is puny there. He's no pushover, that's for sure. He's definitely got potential to get a slam, but I think the conditions need to be right and he needs to get through the draw easier than he did at Flushing Meadows...

 

[Kieran]

This is spot on. They are unlucky in a way to find themselves with all time greats Nadal, Novak and Federer. I think Kei has the goods, and as you say, much more so than the others. Especially Dimitrov :cover

I think as well, you need swagger, the kind that Nick shows in big matches (without his tendencies towards Monfils-isms). I know there's a discussion about Federer's humblebrags and Rafa's fake humility, but a big ego is essential if you're going to dominate a hungry pool...

 

[Front242]

For me it's not just injury problems but a very inconsistent serve. I've seen more days when Kei hits a lot of poor serves and double faults than good serving but equally I've seen days when he's served great. If he makes his serve more consistent and stays healthy he's a definite challenger to the top players.

 

[Denis]

This is spot on. They are unlucky in a way to find themselves with all time greats Nadal, Novak and Federer. I think Kei has the goods, and as you say, much more so than the others. Especially Dimitrov :cover

I think as well, you need swagger, the kind that Nick shows in big matches (without his tendencies towards Monfils-isms). I know there's a discussion about Federer's humblebrags and Rafa's fake humility, but a big ego is essential if you're going to dominate a hungry pool...

Or a great heart and a willingness to win. Can you be a champ without an ego? I don't know. Rod Laver seems pretty down to earth, but he's a 100 years old or something.

 

[Federberg]

^Lol! It's easy to be humble when you've retired. Even Sampras appears humble now, but he wasn't in his prime. He was softly spoken, but had his moments of alpha style ego. I recall the spat with Rafter on year at Flushing

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

There is such a huge difference in tennis between "can" and "will". So many players CAN challenge the big three, win slams, have great careers. How many will?
I think Kei has all the shots he needs to give anyone problems on any given day. He hugs the baseline, does not back down, attacks relentlessly, that is why I like his style of play. I think he WILL challenge the top dogs and win a slam or two. Injuries aside...

 

[herios]

At the moment, Kei is considered by the bookies the third favorite to win RG, after Novak and Rafa, ahead of the usual suspects Roger and Andy.
I am expecting the numbers to keep changing depending on the outcome of Madrid and Rome, though, although not dramatically.

 

[Federberg]

At the moment, Kei is considered by the bookies the third favorite to win RG, after Novak and Rafa, ahead of the usual suspects Roger and Andy.
I am expecting the numbers to keep changing depending on the outcome of Madrid and Rome, though, although not dramatically.

Andy Murray? A usual suspect at RG? :laydownlaughing

I'll happily eat my hat on the laughter though

 

[herios]

At the moment, Kei is considered by the bookies the third favorite to win RG, after Novak and Rafa, ahead of the usual suspects Roger and Andy.
I am expecting the numbers to keep changing depending on the outcome of Madrid and Rome, though, although not dramatically.

Andy Murray? A usual suspect at RG? :laydownlaughing

I'll happily eat my hat on the laughter though

Andy is always picked by the bookies in the top 5 even at RG, mainly because of his previous slam titles. I know it is ridiculous somewhat, but that is the fact.

 

[Mile]

He will probably be just one more Ferrer, always good, but never best of the best.