It's Dec 1, 2018...What happened?

[El Dude]

Imagine it is a bit more than a year from now and the World Tour Finals just ended. Who won which Slams? Who is the year-end top 10? What happened in 2018?

Of course the only sane answer is, especially in light of the improbable Fedal dominance in 2017, who the fuck knows? But let's have some fun - and maybe have a shot at bragging rights.

I'd like to see some speculations on:

1. Slam champions
2. Year-end top 10
3. WTF/Masters winners
4. Breakthroughs
5. Declines
6. Any and all speculations on specific players
7. True "fearless predictions" - things you realize are improbable but just have a feeling about
8. Anything else you want to say about 2018

I'll start a new post on my speculations, but have at it.

 

[Moxie]

Fun idea. I'll play. And try to resist just plugging Rafa in for everything. LOL.

1. AO: Rafa (oh, no! What happened?) RG: Rafa; W: Murray; USO: Sasha Zverev
2. YE 10: (in no particular order, right?) Nadal, Zverev, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, del Potro, Nishikori, Kyrgios, Thiem, Dimitrov
3. WTF winner: Zverev the Younger
MS winners: Nadal, Djokovic, Kyrgios, Zverev, Murray, Thiem,
4. Breakthroughs: Kyrgios, Shapo, Tiafoe, Chung
5. Declines: Wawrinka, Raonic (Berdych is already declining, so is Ferrer)
6. Speculations: Stan becomes a spoiler, not a contender; Dimitrov continues to disappoint; Yiuchi Sugita makes a mark
7. Fearless predictions: Djokovic never comes back full strength
8. David Ferrer and Dr. Ivo retire

 

[mrzz]

Great idea, Dude. Moxie, I' ll steal your structure:

Half brain/half heart predictions:

1. AO: Federer RG: Thiem; W: Cilic; USO: del Potro
2. YE 10 (in order): Murray, del Potro, Zverev, Thiem, Federer, Nadal, Dimitrov, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Goffin
3. WTF winner: del Potro
MS winners: Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Zverev (3), Murray, Thiem, Wawrinka
4. Breakthroughs: Rublev, Shapo, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas
5. Declines: Tsonga (sadly) and a few more French players
6. Speculations: Djokovic has an up and down year.
7. Fearless predictions: Fognini and/or Cuevas win a clay masters

 

[Federberg]

Don't know about specific predictions, but the things I'm intrigued about are:

1, will Novak come back anywhere near his previous level?
2, when will Murray get back to his previous level - note the difference? I'm certain Murray will get back to his level, it's just a question of when because his issues are purely physical
3, will Federer continue to keep a smart schedule? Frankly I think he should treat France as if it's on a travel ban. And treat clay as if he's allergic to it. If he does that then I think it'll take something amazing to stop him from winning Wimbledon again next year
4, I'm utterly clueless about the AO next year. I don't know what Rafa's physical issues are, but given that it's too soon for either Novak or Murray to be factors, it wouldn't shock me to see another Fedal final. They'll definitely be on opposite sides of the draw this time and Federer for one will be fresh. I see a high chance (very high) of Federer going deep again there. Judging from this year, if we do see another Fedal final, I'll state right here and now it won't be 5 sets this time, and I'll have the balls to actually watch it live instead of paying more attention to a nice Cuban cigar
5, I'm intrigued to see what happens at RG next year. Everyone's so focused on when Federer checks out, but what about Rafa? If Thiem continues his progression on clay he could be a really significant factor again
6, I predict the US Open might be the most competitive slam next year. The young guns would have had an additional year to toughen up. If Zverev has been able to get to a 2nd week in any of the preceding slams then I'll be ready to look to see him in the final four at Flushing

By far and away the most intriguing thing for me is Novak. In a funny way, RG/Wimbledon is where he has to show up for me. He'll have had a decent amount of time to get back to form. If he doesn't show up in a final 4 in either one of those I'll have to seriously consider not just selling my Novak stock, but possibly going short. I find it extraordinary that no one seems to be giving Federer much of a sniff next year, or at the very least disregarding him. His win/loss ratio this year is far too strong for him not to be the highest probability winner of a slam next year of anyone in the field. You have to assume a relative decline that simply isn't supported by the data we have in front of us right now

 

[mrzz]

when will Murray get back to his previous level

Check out the highlights from the exho he played with Federer just a fortnight ago. He seems to be playing quite well:

 

[Federberg]

Check out the highlights from the exho he played with Federer just a fortnight ago. He seems to be playing quite well:

Haven't watched it yet, but my understanding is that he was clearly hampered by his hip. Always hard to read much into these things as Roger was clearly taking it easy on him. It's an exhibition after all..

 

[mrzz]

Haven't watched it yet, but my understanding is that he was clearly hampered by his hip. Always hard to read much into these things as Roger was clearly taking it easy on him. It's an exhibition after all..

Check it out then. It seems like a very good practice session for both. Murray tracked down some absurd balls, rotated quite well in some defensive returns. Looking good to me... (but, I know, not a real match, but that's the evidence we have).

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Let's see if Rublev or Shapo improves in 2018. I am intrigued about Djokovic too. I would love to see Roger thrash Djokovic at AO, not even kidding.

Now, the field next year is going to be super strong.

See

Roger is doing great right now, so let's mention him.
Rafa would fix his issues ultimately and be there.
Novak and Andy will come in fresh (I hope they did their homework)
El Dude's 'weak generation' (Raonic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Cilic etc.) will be there trying to survive.
Kyrgios
Zverev, he's already a two-time masters champion.
Rublev, , Tiafoe, Shapo.

 

[El Dude]

I suppose it is ironic that I am finding it very difficult to answer my own questions, and it is because of my main prediction: 2018 is going to be a wild and unpredictable year! So I'll start with that and maybe add more later.

 

[Horsa]

I suppose it is ironic that I am finding it very difficult to answer my own questions, and it is because of my main prediction: 2018 is going to be a wild and unpredictable year! So I'll start with that and maybe add more later.

I don't think so. Sometimes I find it very easy to come up with questions but not so easy to come up with the answers to them. I haven't said anything because I'm a very imaginative person & felt like I had to control myself. I'd put all your questions into 1 & have 2 or 3 answers, 1 dreamy, 1 what's realistically more likely to happen in men's tennis & 1 what's realistically more likely to happen in women's tennis.

 

[isabelle]

can't wait to see Sir Andy, Nole and Stan back in action, hope they"ll do well

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I suppose it is ironic that I am finding it very difficult to answer my own questions, and it is because of my main prediction: 2018 is going to be a wild and unpredictable year! So I'll start with that and maybe add more later.

Yeah. It's long time I saw a Federer-Djokovic match. So, I'm craving for that too.

 

[El Dude]

OK, here's a prediction. One of the exciting things I see coagulating on the men's tour is that the "second tier" is expanding. Among NextGen, only Zverev--and possibly Shapovalov--looks like a surefire future elite, but there are a ton of players who could reach the top 10. By "second tier" I mean the Berdychs and Tsongas of the world: regulars in the #5-15 range who make Slam QFs and occasional SFs, might win a Masters or two (more in a non-Big Four hegemony), but don't reach #1 and probably don't win Slams. Even as Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga fade away, we have a large number of players who are jockeying for inclusion in the top 10.

So my prediction. #6ish to #15ish is going to be tight, with a lot of players trying to get into the WTF next year. Assuming health, chances are we'll see the Big Four + Zverev as the top 5. After that, it could be a mess with a wide range of players trying to get into the top 10, in rough order of age:

Fading but still strong enough to make it: Wawrinka, Tsonga
Prime years: Cilic, Del Potro, Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Goffin, Busta, Sock
NextGen cusp: Thiem, Pouille, Kyrgios

I think players like Isner, Querrey, Anderson, Berdych, Ramos-Vinolas, Bautista Agut, etc, will all fade out of this tighter group.

Darkhorse: Diego Schwartzman. Hard to imagine him reaching the top 10, but he played really well the last couple months.

I don't think Next Genners Rublev, Chung, Coric, Khachanov, Medvedev, Shapovalov, Tiafoe, etc will reach the top 10 in 2018, but one or two may reach the top 20.

 

[Carlg]

top ten in no order: Nadal, Federer, Nole, Theim, Zverev, Raonic, Delpo, Kyrgios, Murray, Dimitrov
slam winners: Nole(French), Kyrgios(Australian or Wimbledon), Federer(Australian or Wimbledon), ???(US Open)
breakthroughs: Kyrgios apparently(not a fan but he seems most likely to breakthrough and I don't see the Big 3 or Andy Murray winning all the slams this year)
lack of breakthroughs: Zverev doesn't make a slam final but finds more success at the Masters.

 

[Busted]

It's always crazy to try to predict winners - especially Slams - without a draw...but here's my best guess that the Dec 2018 challenge -

1. Slam Winners -

AO - Djokovic or Federer
French - Thiem or Wawrinka
Wimbledon - Kyrgios or Federer
US Open - Del Potro or Djokovc

2. Year end Top 10

1. Djokovic, 2. Murray 3. A. Zverev, 4. Nadal, 5. Federer, 6. Thiem, 7. Del Potro, 8. Wawrinka, 9. Goffin, 10. Kyrgios

Note: I'm putting Federer 5th only because he's not going to play as much as the others. Unless he decides to play 1 clay Masters and RG - no way he'll be able to stay #2 with 9,605 points to defend.

3. WTF/Masters Winners

WTF - Djokovic
Masters - IW - Federer; Miami - Kyrgios; Monte Carlo - Nadal; Madrid - Thiem; Rome - Djokovic; Canada - Murray; Cincy - Federer; Shanghai - Djokovic; Paris - Murray

4. Breakthroughs -

Kyrgios gets his head ouf of his ass and either makes a Slam final or wins one.

Felix Auger-Aliassime break into the Top 100

Tiafoe, Donaldson, Rublev, Coric & Chung in YE Top 40. Shapovalov in the YE Top 30.

5. Declines -

Stick a fork in Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic, Cilic, Ferrer, Feli Lopez, Dolgopolov, Verdasco, Gasquet and Dr. Ivo

6. Speculations -

Sascha Zverev finally makes the 2nd week at a Slam. Mischa Zverev falls out of the top 100. I also predict that Boris Becker will stick his nose in (as head of the German tennis federation) and manage to run off Ferrero

Coaching partnernships that will end - Dimitrov/Vallverdu, Djokovic/Agassi, Nishikori/Chang (if it hasn't already)


7. "Fearless predictions" that'll never happen?

Federer wins the Grand Slam and pulls 7 Slams ahead of Nadal and 11 ahead of Djokovic.

I kid...my fearless prediction is that Nadal will get injured again in 2018 and miss half the season - again. The groundwork was already laid at the end of the year and if he really does play both the Mubadala XO and Brisbane before the AO then he's either broke ass and needs the appearance money or he's stupider than I think he is.

Oh yeah...and Dimitrov is about to get a reality check. He's a true #3 in the world about like me and my arthritic back are Serena Williams. He finally cracks the Top 3 due to all the injured players and then leaves Federer's management company (presumably to get ouf the "Baby Fed" shadows) after Tony Godsick babied him along for 8 years and got Nike to stick with him as a sponsor when the results weren't there. Allegedly Nike was going to drop Dimitrov 2 years ago but Godsick stepped in. Hope that comes back to bite him in the ass. Ingrate.

8. Anything else I want to say?

I'll be glad when the "regular order" is restored and all of last years pretenders are back in their places outside of the Top 10. Seriously...Dimitov #3, Sock #8, Carreno Busta #10, Querrey #13? Oy vey...the men's tour become almost as mediocre as the women's.

 

[britbox]

Good effort @Busted - enjoyed the read.

Lots of expectations on Novak hitting the heights again, not just by you but most posters. I'm not so convinced - I'll gauge it more at the AO, but realistically he's been out a long time (I'm not really counting his bit-part role last year before injury)... we haven't seen the top drawer version of Novak for at least a year and a half.

It wouldn't surprise me if he had some average results early doors and then aggravated old injuries again. That shoulder better remain in tact if he's going to make the inroads people expect. I want to see him back in the mix again... I just think it will take time. If he stays fit then I think his best chance of a slam will be at the USO... I think the AO will be too early for him.

Every year we think that some young guns might make a break through... but the time is ripe here and now.... I'll take a punt and bet one of them wins a major this year.

 

[Carol]

 

[Carol]

It's always crazy to try to predict winners - especially Slams - without a draw...but here's my best guess that the Dec 2018 challenge -

1. Slam Winners -

AO - Djokovic or Federer
French - Thiem or Wawrinka
Wimbledon - Kyrgios or Federer
US Open - Del Potro or Djokovc

2. Year end Top 10

1. Djokovic, 2. Murray 3. A. Zverev, 4. Nadal, 5. Federer, 6. Thiem, 7. Del Potro, 8. Wawrinka, 9. Goffin, 10. Kyrgios

Note: I'm putting Federer 5th only because he's not going to play as much as the others. Unless he decides to play 1 clay Masters and RG - no way he'll be able to stay #2 with 9,605 points to defend.

3. WTF/Masters Winners

WTF - Djokovic
Masters - IW - Federer; Miami - Kyrgios; Monte Carlo - Nadal; Madrid - Thiem; Rome - Djokovic; Canada - Murray; Cincy - Federer; Shanghai - Djokovic; Paris - Murray

4. Breakthroughs -

Kyrgios gets his head ouf of his ass and either makes a Slam final or wins one.

Felix Auger-Aliassime break into the Top 100

Tiafoe, Donaldson, Rublev, Coric & Chung in YE Top 40. Shapovalov in the YE Top 30.

5. Declines -

Stick a fork in Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic, Cilic, Ferrer, Feli Lopez, Dolgopolov, Verdasco, Gasquet and Dr. Ivo

6. Speculations -

Sascha Zverev finally makes the 2nd week at a Slam. Mischa Zverev falls out of the top 100. I also predict that Boris Becker will stick his nose in (as head of the German tennis federation) and manage to run off Ferrero

Coaching partnernships that will end - Dimitrov/Vallverdu, Djokovic/Agassi, Nishikori/Chang (if it hasn't already)


7. "Fearless predictions" that'll never happen?

Federer wins the Grand Slam and pulls 7 Slams ahead of Nadal and 11 ahead of Djokovic.

I kid...my fearless prediction is that Nadal will get injured again in 2018 and miss half the season - again. The groundwork was already laid at the end of the year and if he really does play both the Mubadala XO and Brisbane before the AO then he's either broke ass and needs the appearance money or he's stupider than I think he is.

Oh yeah...and Dimitrov is about to get a reality check. He's a true #3 in the world about like me and my arthritic back are Serena Williams. He finally cracks the Top 3 due to all the injured players and then leaves Federer's management company (presumably to get ouf the "Baby Fed" shadows) after Tony Godsick babied him along for 8 years and got Nike to stick with him as a sponsor when the results weren't there. Allegedly Nike was going to drop Dimitrov 2 years ago but Godsick stepped in. Hope that comes back to bite him in the ass. Ingrate.

8. Anything else I want to say?

I'll be glad when the "regular order" is restored and all of last years pretenders are back in their places outside of the Top 10. Seriously...Dimitov #3, Sock #8, Carreno Busta #10, Querrey #13? Oy vey...the men's tour become almost as mediocre as the women's.

Thanks to the Heaven that your predictions is just a wish and not a reality. What I understand a little bit more is what you have said about Federer, you should pray for he would do a good 2018 and winning something, otherwise it will be his last one playing. And about Novak I doubt he can stop Nadal

 

[Federberg]

It's always crazy to try to predict winners - especially Slams - without a draw...but here's my best guess that the Dec 2018 challenge -

1. Slam Winners -

AO - Djokovic or Federer
French - Thiem or Wawrinka
Wimbledon - Kyrgios or Federer
US Open - Del Potro or Djokovc

2. Year end Top 10

1. Djokovic, 2. Murray 3. A. Zverev, 4. Nadal, 5. Federer, 6. Thiem, 7. Del Potro, 8. Wawrinka, 9. Goffin, 10. Kyrgios

Note: I'm putting Federer 5th only because he's not going to play as much as the others. Unless he decides to play 1 clay Masters and RG - no way he'll be able to stay #2 with 9,605 points to defend.

3. WTF/Masters Winners

WTF - Djokovic
Masters - IW - Federer; Miami - Kyrgios; Monte Carlo - Nadal; Madrid - Thiem; Rome - Djokovic; Canada - Murray; Cincy - Federer; Shanghai - Djokovic; Paris - Murray

4. Breakthroughs -

Kyrgios gets his head ouf of his ass and either makes a Slam final or wins one.

Felix Auger-Aliassime break into the Top 100

Tiafoe, Donaldson, Rublev, Coric & Chung in YE Top 40. Shapovalov in the YE Top 30.

5. Declines -

Stick a fork in Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic, Cilic, Ferrer, Feli Lopez, Dolgopolov, Verdasco, Gasquet and Dr. Ivo

6. Speculations -

Sascha Zverev finally makes the 2nd week at a Slam. Mischa Zverev falls out of the top 100. I also predict that Boris Becker will stick his nose in (as head of the German tennis federation) and manage to run off Ferrero

Coaching partnernships that will end - Dimitrov/Vallverdu, Djokovic/Agassi, Nishikori/Chang (if it hasn't already)


7. "Fearless predictions" that'll never happen?

Federer wins the Grand Slam and pulls 7 Slams ahead of Nadal and 11 ahead of Djokovic.

I kid...my fearless prediction is that Nadal will get injured again in 2018 and miss half the season - again. The groundwork was already laid at the end of the year and if he really does play both the Mubadala XO and Brisbane before the AO then he's either broke ass and needs the appearance money or he's stupider than I think he is.

Oh yeah...and Dimitrov is about to get a reality check. He's a true #3 in the world about like me and my arthritic back are Serena Williams. He finally cracks the Top 3 due to all the injured players and then leaves Federer's management company (presumably to get ouf the "Baby Fed" shadows) after Tony Godsick babied him along for 8 years and got Nike to stick with him as a sponsor when the results weren't there. Allegedly Nike was going to drop Dimitrov 2 years ago but Godsick stepped in. Hope that comes back to bite him in the ass. Ingrate.

8. Anything else I want to say?

I'll be glad when the "regular order" is restored and all of last years pretenders are back in their places outside of the Top 10. Seriously...Dimitov #3, Sock #8, Carreno Busta #10, Querrey #13? Oy vey...the men's tour become almost as mediocre as the women's.

I like it. Although waaaay too much faith in Novak

 

[mrzz]

I wake up and take look at the watch... it is December the first, 2018. 6:00 A.M. I need to work, 12 hours shift is the new normal since the great turmoil. Greatest economic crisis ever, greatest hacker attack ever, greatest solar storm ever and the world's economic system went down. All cable TV went down, internet went down. A lot of planes went down... superfluous stuff must vanish, most international matters just could not happen. International sports disappeared from the face of the earth. I still have my racquets but hardly any strength to pick them up and play. I miss sitting down and watching the big guys play. I miss the tension of those important points, I miss the surprise of seeing something I thought impossible. I miss even the youtube clips of plays I've seen a million times.

I was waken by the light of the sun through the window. But the window itself moves like a curtain, drops of oil from a strange wave hit the glass and my own face. It must be a dream, it must be a nightmare...

I wake up! It was a nightmare indeed! Phhfffffeeeewww..... It was a scary one.

The economic crisis is real, the hacker attack happened, as the solar storm. But there's still TV and there is still professional tennis. In fact they pushed the ATP finals to December due to the riots, so today I can watch the first match!!! It will be a fine reward for 12 hours of rock breaking... I thank the Tennis Gods it was just a nightmare...