Is this the beginning of The Incline?

[El Dude]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

 

[Kieran]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

When you narrow it down, the list is small. Tsonga almost knocked him out in 2012, and we can't write-off an absolute outsider blitzing a star somewhere along the way, but in the cold light of logic, Rafa would be as much a choice as anybody for the task of knocking Djoker out in Paris. And bear in mind that Nole isn't the champion in Paris - he's just another challenger - so the pressure on him will be immense this year.

But isn't the fact that we're discussing Rafa as being even a solid second favourite proof-positive of the Incline?

 

[the AntiPusher]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

Obviously Rafa has a phenomenal H2H(6-1) record vs Novak at RG. Maybe they will meet at Rome. I don't see either player going deep at Madrid in a few weeks .

 

[El Dude]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

When you narrow it down, the list is small. Tsonga almost knocked him out in 2012, and we can't write-off an absolute outsider blitzing a star somewhere along the way, but in the cold light of logic, Rafa would be as much a choice as anybody for the task of knocking Djoker out in Paris. And bear in mind that Nole isn't the champion in Paris - he's just another challenger - so the pressure on him will be immense this year.

But isn't the fact that we're discussing Rafa as being even a solid second favourite proof-positive of the Incline?

Definitely. Both you and I agreed that Rafa could have this in him, at least as a clay surge. I am convinced that "clay Rafa" is back, or at least close enough to be a serious contender through Roland Garros. Even Rafa at 90% is good enough to beat everyone other than prime Novak on clay. But again, after that, I'm more skeptical. If you look at his record, aside from 2013, you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find him winning anything big after Roland Garros.

Tsonga has the best chance of any player to do a Ivanisevic/Korda/Gomez and win a late career Slam. He just has a much higher peak level than Berdych or Ferrer.

 

[El Dude]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

Obviously Rafa has a phenomenal H2H(6-1) record vs Novak at RG. Maybe they will meet at Rome. I don't see either player going deep at Madrid in a few weeks .

Is Novak actually playing Madrid?

 

[Fiero425]

I think we can also argue that if "someone" can take Novak out at RG, why can't that someone be Rafa?

I'm not sure Stan has another run like last year in him. After Stan, unless someone like Thiem or Kyrgios takes a bit step forward, the only other player I could see taking out Novak is Rafa. Roger did it in 2011, but that was five years ago and a 29-year old Roger. I don't think he could do it again, not on clay.

Obviously Rafa has a phenomenal H2H(6-1) record vs Novak at RG. Maybe they will meet at Rome. I don't see either player going deep at Madrid in a few weeks .

Is Novak actually playing Madrid?

Maybe 1 and out like MC to rest up! Just there by special invitation for some reason! :cover uzzled :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kieran]

Obviously Rafa has a phenomenal H2H(6-1) record vs Novak at RG. Maybe they will meet at Rome. I don't see either player going deep at Madrid in a few weeks .

Is Novak actually playing Madrid?

Maybe 1 and out like MC to rest up! Just there by special invitation for some reason! :cover uzzled :nono :angel: :dodgy:

To rest up? Why?

 

[Front242]

I wish Gulbis would knuckle down to playing his best as he was pretty class at RG 2014 and if he actually bothered trying to train and play properly could be very high up the list of dark horses. Another sad waste of talent :nono

 

[Fiero425]

Is Novak actually playing Madrid?

Maybe 1 and out like MC to rest up! Just there by special invitation for some reason! :cover uzzled :nono :angel: :dodgy:

To rest up? Why?

People keep making out the Big 4 are pushing Social Security; the old guy shouldn't overdo it before a FO he hasn't won yet! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Kieran]

Maybe 1 and out like MC to rest up! Just there by special invitation for some reason! :cover uzzled :nono :angel: :dodgy:

To rest up? Why?

People keep making out the Big 4 are pushing Social Security; the old guy shouldn't overdo it before a FO he hasn't won yet! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

If he wanted to conserve energy then taking a break in Miami would have been better. But he doesn't need a break. He needs to go to Madrid and check Rafa's run. If Nole goes out early in Madrid, so he can put his feet up and snooze in front of daytime TV, and conserve energy, he might find Rome to be a similar result to MC, and then what kind of prep would that be for Paris?

 

[kskate2]

This Nadal is not ready to defeat Novak. Obviously if someone takes Djoker out at RG, it's likely Nadal will lift it again as he can defeat the remainder of the tour.

I am not debating your post but why do you feel he isn't ready. Rafa has defeated some good top ten ATP players and reclaimed Barcelona from a very stingy Nishikori. His game is a lot better , he is moving , hitting the ball deeper and grinding out wins that were looses last year. I just wanted to hear your thoughts

Here's my answer to your question from a different thread:

I think Rafa will be pressed hard by some common sense ..Skip Madrid.. stay fresh for Rome and RG..

Vamos.. And I still hold true to my point! Bring on Djoker right now.. only his first serve percentage can be better but everything else looks to be on point at this stage in the clay season, IMO

He's not ready for the likes of Novak yet. Those 2nd serves are a generous love offering right now. He will get pummeled into submission like IW. He needs to get that placement and speed a little better first.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think playing over 5 sets gives Nole the advantage regardless. He can be conquered in the best of three because he can lose focus and lose a match just like that. However, I think best of 5 allows him to eventually get a rhythm going. I mean I can see Nole losing RG as much as I can see him winning. It just is hard to see who would do it. I am more inclined to say a random does it than say Roger, Rafa or Stan. I think Novak knows he can't take those players lightly, so he shows up more often than not.

 

[El Dude]

What you say, Sundaymorningguy, re-affirms my feeling that if and inevitably when Novak meets his nemesis, it will be someone who has such incredible offensive weaponry that he can put Novak down in three sets before he extends it to 4-5 sets when Novak can just outlast anyone. The player that comes to mind who has that kind of weaponry is Nick Kyrgios. I think Zverev and Fritz could get there as well, but not for another year or two.

 

[the AntiPusher]

What you say, Sundaymorningguy, re-affirms my feeling that if and inevitably when Novak meets his nemesis, it will be someone who has such incredible offensive weaponry that he can put Novak down in three sets before he extends it to 4-5 sets when Novak can just outlast anyone. The player that comes to mind who has that kind of weaponry is Nick Kyrgios. I think Zverev and Fritz could get there as well, but not for another year or two.

Yes, these types of players (e.g. JowillieTs ) really make Novak work

 

[the AntiPusher]

It's amazing how Roger is so brutally honest which is in contrast to some of his fan's views

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/04/federer-djokovic-could-be-favorite-french-nadal-nadal/58215/#.Vx7PO01f3IU

 

[Fiero425]

To rest up? Why?

People keep making out the Big 4 are pushing Social Security; the old guy shouldn't overdo it before a FO he hasn't won yet! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

If he wanted to conserve energy then taking a break in Miami would have been better. But he doesn't need a break. He needs to go to Madrid and check Rafa's run. If Nole goes out early in Madrid, so he can put his feet up and snooze in front of daytime TV, and conserve energy, he might find Rome to be a similar result to MC, and then what kind of prep would that be for Paris?

That record of scoring the 1st 2 Masters of the season was too tempting to pass up; esp. with Roger out with an injury! It was a nice easy 2000 points for him; why skip that? The clay game is such a grind; more Rafa's speed! :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It's amazing how Roger is so brutally honest which is in contrast to some of his fan's views

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/04/federer-djokovic-could-be-favorite-french-nadal-nadal/58215/#.Vx7PO01f3IU

Roger had always spoken very respectfully of Rafa and so, this is nothing new. Further, Roger always had some reluctance in showing recognition to Novak (perhaps due to early issues with some dead king) and so this is nothing new either. Further, he is giving this interview in Spain to Marca and so there would be a tendency to give them what they want to hear also, not that he is being dishonest.

 

[kskate2]

Hey guys. Let's not discuss the doping stuff here. Please put it were it belongs in the general doping thread http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=4713&pid=228324#pid228324

Thanks.

 

[Fiero425]

It's amazing how Roger is so brutally honest which is in contrast to some of his fan's views

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/04/federer-djokovic-could-be-favorite-french-nadal-nadal/58215/#.Vx7PO01f3IU

Roger had always spoken very respectfully of Rafa and so, this is nothing new. Further, Roger always had some reluctance in showing recognition to Novak (perhaps due to early issues with some dead king) and so this is nothing new either. Further, he is giving this interview in Spain to Marca and so there would be a tendency to give them what they want to hear also, not that he is being dishonest.

What is Roger supposed to say and do? It would sound like sour grapes if he wasn't contrite since Rafa's owned him since the beginning! Only Nole has been able to stall his success; 7 in a row several years ago and nowadays, he's not even dropping sets to the old clay courter! Did you see how he was abused and humiliated in Qatar? I can watch that shellacking over and over again! :lolz: :clap :snicker :laydownlaughing :angel:

 

[Kieran]

It's amazing how Roger is so brutally honest which is in contrast to some of his fan's views

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/04/federer-djokovic-could-be-favorite-french-nadal-nadal/58215/#.Vx7PO01f3IU

Roger had always spoken very respectfully of Rafa and so, this is nothing new. Further, Roger always had some reluctance in showing recognition to Novak (perhaps due to early issues with some dead king) and so this is nothing new either. Further, he is giving this interview in Spain to Marca and so there would be a tendency to give them what they want to hear also, not that he is being dishonest.

What is Roger supposed to say and do? It would sound like sour grapes if he wasn't contrite since Rafa's owned him since the beginning! Only Nole has been able to stall his success; 7 in a row several years ago and nowadays, he's not even dropping sets to the old clay courter! Did you see how he was abused and humiliated in Qatar? I can watch that shellacking over and over again! :lolz: :clap :snicker :laydownlaughing :angel:

Mr Cheerful. :laydownlaughing