Interesting article on second serves

[El Dude]

I was going to bring this question up as a conversation but found a great article that answered it well, and thought some might find it interesting:

Why Tennis Players Don't Take More Risks on Second Serves

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I was going to bring this question up as a conversation but found a great article that answered it well, and thought some might find it interesting:

Why Tennis Players Don't Take More Risks on Second Serves

I thought this was well known to most folks (not the article, but the idea behind it).

However, Maria is doing this risky repeated first serve two times these days.

 

[Front242]

Gulbis used to hit crazy second serves as fast as his first but he seems to have grasped the fact that it's only a good idea once per match or so now. Flavia Pennetta tends to hit a lot of fast second serves too as does Sabine Lisicki and lots of double faults as a result. Isner's second serve is as deadly as a good first serve from most players.

Pretty unreal kick serve here btw.

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0NBogMzyoo[/video]

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

really nice breakdown of the relevant numbers.

 

[mrzz]

Yeah, the guy did the homework carefully. A while ago I checked some stats (way less than he did), and for the matches I took (he, instead, looked at the season numbers, which is obviously better) it was a good (statistical) move (to let it rip on the second). But, as his analysis is much wider, no question about the general rule.

However, it would be interesting to see those stats break down by surface. On grass and fast hards, it could be a different story.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think this is a new finding by any means. Almost all club players know this.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

I don't think this is a new finding by any means. Almost all club players know this.

well hardly anyone claimed this was big news, right? it's just that it's a really nice breakdown of the numbers.

mrzz - can't find 1st/2nd stats by surface anywhere else. no idea if the spread is actually bigger on those courts.

 

[patsensei]

I think it's a good move to go for a first serve on a second serve in certain areas of a match. For example if you are up 40-0 in a game and under no real pressure. Why not go for it?

 

[Moxie]

I was thinking along the same lines. Presumably a softer 2nd serve is always better than a double-fault, because at least you're still in the point. However, the notion of calculated risk in taking a "first serve" as a second serve, sometimes, is interesting. But don't players always calculate that risk? If a player is feeling confident with the serve, and the receiver isn't reading it that well, you might try it. Or at 40-0 or 40-15 you might go for it. Depending on the opponent, and the score, aren't there always times that a player would go for a bigger serve on the 2nd, sometimes?

Sidebar question: Who has the best 2nd serve ace/unreturnable percentage? I'd guess Federer, overall, because he has such great placement, and probably Djokovic this year. Nadal has also worked on placement, so his 2nd serve can be effective. Murray is the one who needs to work on his, of the big 4.

 

[mrzz]

I don't think this is a new finding by any means. Almost all club players know this.

well hardly anyone claimed this was big news, right? it's just that it's a really nice breakdown of the numbers.

mrzz - can't find 1st/2nd stats by surface anywhere else. no idea if the spread is actually bigger on those courts.

I don't think those numbers are out there. I just can't help but think that it must vary from surface to surface... like the aces or service winners numbers. Outdoor/indoor should also be quite different.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Most top players just have enough confidence in their baseline game to win the point and thus don't feel the need to take unnecessary risks on the second serve. Guys like Federer and Novak have quality second serves as it is.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As I said earlier in this thread, these days Maria is going big on both first and second serves violating the conventional wisdom. See the following IBM infographic on it.

 

[Kieran]

Most top players just have enough confidence in their baseline game to win the point and thus don't feel the need to take unnecessary risks on the second serve. Guys like Federer and Novak have quality second served as it is.

That's it, and the game has evolved too, so you don't get the old chintzy chip and charge off the second serve. It's all about pressure of a different kind now, constructing the rally around boxing some clown off on the second serve. I always love it when I see a player blast off on the second, though. Sends a gushing purr through the crowd. High risk stuff. But yeah, largely they play so good from the baseline nowadays that the second serve is their opening gambit...