Indian Wells - WTA : Predictions and bets

[Bert]

Hi everyone,

I am starting this new thread to talk about match analysis, predictions and betting for those who are into it.
With Indian Wells starting, I am sure that we will have plenty of passionate discussions and many opposite opinions to share

The draw is not known yet, so that's the perfect time for a summary of what we've learnt from the previous weeks and what we expect in this tournament.

Here my analysis and the players I will keep an eye on for betting purposes

Last week, there were two tournaments : Monterrey and Kuala Lumpur and the least we can say is that there was not a big motivation or commitment from the top players. That's why I would be very careful about the performance of players such as Watson, Flipkens, Bouchard and Svitolina. They reached the final but in my opinion this doesn't mean much. They could be over rated and odds too optimistic.

Cibulkova could be interesting to follow. I think she plays better than her ranking, made the final in Acapulco and can definitely upset some of the big guns.

On the recently injured or out-of-form players, I will note : Azarenka (retired at Acapulco,not sure about her fitness), Halep who didn't show much from the start of the season and may still suffer from achilles and Pavlyuchenkova who seems incredibly un-fit from what I saw recently.

What do you think ?

 

[britbox]

Should be fun. I'll hang on until the draw is out first - think it should be out today? and then maybe we can look at some of the odds.

 

[Bert]

Yes draw went out today (attached). Qualifications started today. First round for women on Wednesday and Thursday for men.
Will dig into the numbers then.

 

[Bert]

Odds for Indian Wells title : Willams 3.75 / Azarenka 6 / Kerber 9 / Bencic 10 / Radwanska 10 / Halep 12
I am bit surprised by Bencic's odds. They seem a bit optimistic to me.

 

[britbox]

Thanks @Bert, are we doing this on a round by round basis?

How about we start with $100 virtual money and place bets (as many or as little as the poster wants) during the tournament and see who has the most money at the end?

I might be able to get betting feed lodged into the thread with the odds on the matches.

 

[Bert]

Yes this is better to go on a round by round basis. My idea was to select few interesting matches for each round so we can discuss them and everyone can give his prediction.

If you can get a betting feed lodged into the thread the idea of virtual bet could be great !

Any idea is welcome.

 

[britbox]

Sounds good Bert... we can experiment until we find the right blend and hopefully by the time of Roland Garros we should have established a proper system!

 

[Bert]

Here we go ! First round starts today. Many games planned today, so I only selected a few. Feel free to add some to the list.

Day #1 / Round # 1 : odds are average odds given by www.tennisexplorer.com

- Voskoboeva vs. Watson - odds : 7.14 / 1.09
This is Voskoboeva's come back after nearly 2 years off courts. This season she only played 2 matches in Fed Cup (2 losses), 1 ITF tournament (2wins / 1 loss in qualifications) and Monterrey (1 loss). Against Watson just titled at Monterrey, in my opinion she has no chances at all. Watson's odds don't worth a bet. Maybe Watson winning in straight sets (1.33) or the score in less than 18 games (2.1) are more exciting ! I would go for the straight sets win from Watson.

- Maria vs. Larsson - odds : 3.21 / 1.33
Maria has only one win this season (AO 1st round against Govortsova), Larsson records are 7w/6l so far. I would say Larsson has a better chance to win, but I don't know these two players well enough, so I would stay out of this one.

- Putintseva vs. Peng - odds : 1.38 / 2.93
Peng has a protected ranking so she enters directly the main draw. She hasn't played since the French Open last season. Putintseva had a good win against Wozniacki at AO but didn't really defeated big names since then. I think on a normal day Peng has more in her racquet but that's her first match since a while... I would stay out of this one too, not enough information on Peng's form.

- Hradecka vs. Riske - odds : 2.36 / 1.55
Both players haven't great records this season so far, Riske doing better slightly better. I would go with Riske as I think she is better than Hradecka on hard court and she has (slighlty) more significant wins this season.

- Tsurenko - Babos - odds : 2.09 / 1.71
I pick Babos for this one. She showed much more since the start of the season than her opponent even if I was a bit surprised she lost against Hercog last week.

- Crawford - Kovinic - odds : 2.17 / 1.67
I watched Crawford playing early this season in Brisbane and in my opinion she has great potential. She didn't show much after that, losing against Kovinic in straight sets at Australian Open. Kovinic is better on clay in my opinion. I would pick Crawford as a risky bet, she may play well in front of home crowd.

- Van Uytvanck - Bondarenko - odds : 2.28 / 1.63
I go for Bondarenko on this one. She had two wins to qualify for the main draw, she defeated the Belgian last year in their only H2H.

- Townsend - King - odds : 2.12 / 1.71
Townsend won 8 matches to qualify for the main draw !! King is stronger in my opinion but Townsend is on fire now... no bet for me but curious to see how it goes !!

What do you think guys ? What are your picks for today ?

 

[britbox]

Ok, same as ATP, I'll assume I have hundred bucks in the back bin (back pocket for those who aren't familiar with British slang )

Now with these first rounders, I don't know enough about a lot of them to even make an educated guess... I'm guessing off the odds, apart from Watson and Peng. Like you, I'm avoiding Peng... but I'm sticking a virtual $50 bucks on Watson at 1.09 for a minor return. If Watson wins, I'm up $4.50 and if she loses I'm down $50.... but I'm more than 96.5% happy that she wins the match.

 

[Bert]

I have added the match list with the odds if someone wants to bet one another match.

If you go with virtual bet, I go 10$ on Watson 2-0 at 1.33 / 5$ on Riske at 1.55 / 5$ on Babos at 1.71 / 5$ on Bondarenko at 1.63 / 2$ on Crawford at 2.17.

Will see how this go

 

[britbox]

I'll bet another $10 on Strycova at 1.26

 

[Bert]

I'll bet another $10 on Strycova at 1.26

Apparently I won't teach you anything about French flair today... What a bad day for me !
1/5 : 27$ bet, 8.15$ return -> -18.9$ - actual balance : 81.1$ !
Babos was up 5-2 set point and in a blink she was 7-5 4-0 down. I remembered then why I should be careful betting on WTA

For Britbox :
2/2 : 60$ bet, 67.1$ return -> +7.1$ - actual balance : 107.1$

Good start mate. Keep up the good work

 

[Bert]

Round #1 / Day #2 :

Big names will start tomorrow, but few interesting games today for betting:

- Garcia vs. McHale - odds 1.42 / 2.77
Garcia is favourite here. Recently SF in Dubai and in Monterrey where she lost against Watson 6-2 6-1 complaining about a back injury. McHale won a ITF tournament in Maui. In my opinion players are closer than odds say, I don't know if Garcia is 100% fit. I would say Garcia but there is room for adventurous people to bet on McHale at home.

- Zhang vs. Parmentier - odds 1.50 / 2.51
Zhang reached QF in AO and only played one ITF tournament that she won two weeks ago then. Parmentier didn't win a match in a main draw before Monterrey where she had some unexpected wins : Pavlyuchenkova / Puig. She plays the qualifications here stays on 7 wins out of 8 matches in the last 10 days. I think Zhang is on a very positive mood since the start of the season and is better than Parmentier.

- Bouchard vs. Ozaki - odds 1.18 / 4.59
Bouchard is clearly the favourite here. Ozaki is more used to ITF tournaments. Bouchard stays on a final in Kuala Lumpur and I cannot see why she would lose this match.

Have a look at all the matches and tell who you would bet your money on.

 

[Bert]

My bets for today :
10$ on Zhang @ 1.5 and 20$ on Bouchard @ 1.18

 

[britbox]

$10 on Puig at 1.9, $20 on Bouchard also at 1.18

 

[Bert]

$10 on Puig at 1.9, $20 on Bouchard also at 1.18

Well done again mate ! +12.6$ today. Actual virtual balance = 119.7$
For me, I won't take into account Zheng as she won on a withdrawal. So only +3.6. Actual balance = 84.7$

Hey guys join us on our virtual bets friendly comp and help me to catch Britbox

 

[Bert]

Round #2 / Day #3

Here we go, top players are on court now !!

One of the best game to watch imo, should be Radwanska vs. Cibulkova (odds 1.40 / 2.86). Cibulkova seems to be back to her best and she will give tough opposition to Radwanska. Recently she reached the final in Acapulco, losing on Stephens. Radwanska does a great season so far, winning Shenzhen, SF at Australian Open, and SF in Doha. Match may be much tigher than the odds say, I won't be surprised if it goes to a third set but I think Radwanska should win.

Tsurenko - Errani (2.12 / 1.69) : I still think that Tsurenko is lucky to be in the second Round as she was 5-2 / set point down before Babos switched off the brain and lost 7 games in a row. Based on the season form and the first round scenario, I pick Errani to win.

Pavlyuchenkova - Bondarenko (1.8 / 1.96) : I watched Pavlyuchenkova playing last week in Monterrey and she really seemed out of form. Bondarenko had a good win in the 1st Round, and played the qualifications here as well, good momentum. Bondarenko can win this one.

Strycova - Petkovic (2.04 / 1.74) : Should be an exciting match to watch, very tight. Petkovic retired in Doha for a leg injury (2+ weeks ago). She hasn't played since, I don't know if she's back 100%. Both players are playing great, H2H records are for Petkovic (1-3), all in straight sets amazingly. But I have no idea who to pick. Too tight.

Watson - Niculescu (1.84 / 1.93) : Watson won her 6 last matches, funny thing is on her 17 matches this season 10 went in three sets. Niculescu records are more made of up and downs (interesting wins against Lisicki, Jankovic and Kvitova). Only one H2H, this year in Hobart, went in three sets to Watson (two tie-breaks). Having seen Watson's first round, I may pick Niculescu this time.

Williams sisters, Halep, Lisicki, start today too. Gibbs-Keys should be a good one too. Enjoy guys !

For our friendly competition, I put 10$ on Errani / 10 $ on Radwanska and 10$ on Bondarenko.
Let me know who you would put your "virtual money" on for tonight ? Anyone can join anytime, do not let Britbox shine

 

[britbox]

$10 Cibulkova
$10 Watson

Good odds on Cibulkova (2.87) who despite a 3-7 losing H2H is in good form and Aga hasn't had the best of starts to the season. So, I'll take that punt.

 

[Bert]

$10 Cibulkova
$10 Watson

Good odds on Cibulkova (2.87) who despite a 3-7 losing H2H is in good form and Aga hasn't had the best of starts to the season. So, I'll take that punt.

Unlucky mate ! Cibulkova was so close to win this one. 5-2 up in the third, I really thought she would take the win.

On the betting side, 0/2 for you, -20$. Balance is 99.7$ not bad.
For me : +13.8-10=+3.8$. Balance is 88.5$. Coming back slowly

 

[Bert]

Round #2 / Day # 4

I am bit short of time today so I am only posting the match list with the odds. Feel free to post some info, details, analysis about the most interesting matches of the day.
For me the BIG one will be between Stephens and Bouchard. Suarez Navarro, Ivanovic, Azarenka, Wozniacki start today as well.

For our virtual bets competition I pick Stephens (10$ @ 1.52) and Suarez Navarro (10$ @ 1.58)