If it was so black and white with sports then bettors would all be rich but it's not. No one can possibly say he'd have beaten Wawrinka
Did I say it was black-and-white? I have never ever said he "would" have won that match. Be fair. What I've always said is that, had Rafa not gotten injured, he was well-favored to win it, and signs tell us that there was a good chance he would have. You're not blind to trends, as a betting man
. and we all know the AO win against Medvedev was a massive choke by Medvedev and not some 35 year old warrior comeback.
I'm guessing you watched that match, then. No one denies that Medvedev was pretty untouchable in the first set. But you can't pretend that he served or played at that level for the other 4. If you're being completely fair, you'd admit that the one who choked the 2nd set was Nadal, having break leads and mini-break leads, and blowing them. It's a set Nadal should have won, which would have evened the match. He served for that set at 5-3, and he held 5-3 in the TB. THAT is a choke. I don't think Medevdev much led for the rest of the match, only that he stayed close and held his own, even breaking back in the 5th. But that's not what anyone would call a "massive choke" on Medvedev's part. You wish he would have won one more set, but it isn't like he really led, going forward. He had one moment in the 3rd when he might have had a break to lead midway through the 3rd, but there's no guarantee he wouldn't have gotten broken back, since he had been so many times by Rafa, on the day, and before.
My point being, given Nadal's competitiveness, and history, had he not broken his back, tell me what percentage chance Wawrinka had at beating him on that day. Less than 50% for sure. Nadal was a much younger man, and Wawrinka was at least as delicate, mentally, as Medvedev.