How Many Grand Slam Titles Will Djokovic End His Career With?

[Obsi]

Maybe I should've added more options but here it is...

 

[Kieran]

Welcome to the forum, obsi!

It's impossible to know, but at a guess, I think he'll finish with 9 or 10...

 

[Riotbeard]

The next year will tell us a lot, but right now i think he will tie borg with 11. Would be a bit surprised if he didn't get to 10 personally, as I think either this year or next will be at least a 2 slam year (unless Wimbledon didn't cure his confidence problems). Without the benefit of seeing rafa on the hards yet and whether he has really found himself, I think Novak is a pretty big favorite going into the USO (More than willing to change that if rafa wins cincy or canada though).

 

[El Dude]

I'm going with 12. Maybe optimistic (for Novak and his fans) but that's an average of 1 per year over the next five years. I'd break it down as follows:

2014-15 (age 27-28): 2-3
2016-17 (age 28-29): 1-3
2018-20 (age 30-32): 0-2

So that's a range of 3-8 more, or 10-15 total. 12 seems like a good medium.

 

[shawnbm]

I picked 12. I think he is the favorite barring injury in both New York and Melbourne. I could see him hoisting another trophy at SW19. The French is one I give him increasing odds of getting with each passing year, unless there is a big change in his play. The hard court slams are ones in which he will likely have the best odds of winning over the next two years and so 12 seems reasonable to me.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

more than 1o majors for me I think..

I mean, lets look at the evidence, winning Wimbledon after being 2-5 up in the 4th having champ point and losing 5 games in a row ...following on from his finals/sf meltdowns in previous majors finals was massive. IN HIS HEAD. which is where he helped himself to lose before (as well as other players murry/wafa being awesome)..

he is 27..just and at his/or near his peak with no major injuries in the past to speak of unlike rafa/murray..so unless dimitrov , raonic and the age 17-23 mob suddenly go berserk then 3 more majors is easily within reach..prob more.

how he reacts to being just married and with sprog will be interesting, if he might lose motivation..then he might "do a McEnroe" and fall away like he did in 1986..the wafa train is still on track for majors and the fedster seems capable of still being in the mix..but 3 more majors ?..I say yes.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

ok I just voted for 11 majors. :idea: he can share a cloud with bjorn borg n rod laver in terms of majors won.

 

[huntingyou]

min 9, max 11


I said this a few years ago

 

[the AntiPusher]

min 9, max 11


I said this a few years ago

yep

 

[ftan]

I will give him 13.. he might grab USO this and 2 more next year..I dont see next crop winning majors anytime soon. Nole is by default fav for most of the slams

 

[Moxie]

Welcome, obsi, and good for you for opening with a poll! If Novak hadn't righted the ship at Wimbledon, I was going to think he might not get to 10, given his "finalitis." However, now I agree he should be favorite in Flushing Meadows, and how much favored will depend on the USO HC swing results. From there, how much Nadal still continues to feature, and how much the younger generation is hungry and moves up are the other question marks, along with his ability to be up and down in finals. I like JLLB's notion that he'll tie Laver and Borg at 11. Not a bad place to land.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Cheers Obsi!

I think he has 4 more in him. A FO and 3 from UO and AO. I am not sure which one he wins twice.

 

[Moxie]

The French is one I give him increasing odds of getting with each passing year, unless there is a big change in his play.

I don't see why you think his odds get better at RG. Unless it's because Nadal's have to decrease with age. Surely, he looked good for it in 2012, and this year, on paper. I suppose if there is still no one to contest it even next year, beyond the two of them...

Cheers Obsi!

I think he has 4 more in him. A FO and 3 from UO and AO. I am not sure which one he wins twice.

As above…career Slams are surely not a dime-a-dozen. You're so sure he has a French in him? (Obviously, everyone will give me a hard time for pooh-poohing his chances in Paris, but it's fair to argue.) :angel:

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

The French is one I give him increasing odds of getting with each passing year, unless there is a big change in his play.

I don't see why you think his odds get better at RG. Unless it's because Nadal's have to decrease with age. Surely, he looked good for it in 2012, and this year, on paper. I suppose if there is still no one to contest it even next year, beyond the two of them...

Cheers Obsi!

I think he has 4 more in him. A FO and 3 from UO and AO. I am not sure which one he wins twice.

As above…career Slams are surely not a dime-a-dozen. You're so sure he has a French in him? (Obviously, everyone will give me a hard time for pooh-poohing his chances in Paris, but it's fair to argue.) :angel:

I feel Nole has a FO in him because he is good on clay and he does not necessarily have to beat Rafa to do it. Because I have a feeling he will at some point have an opportunity, like Roger did, and he will take it. He might even wait Rafa out, because again, I have a feeling he might have a longer career than Rafa.

Who knows, it is just a guess...

 

[DarthFed]

10 or 11. Regardless of how he has played at other slams I think he is a strong favorite at AO for the next 2-3 years. Had the really bad loss this year but I wouldn't expect that to happen again soon. So I think 2 more AO's and then 1 more USO and possibly 1 RG. The big factor in Nole's final number figures to be Dimitrov...when does he become a big time player if he ever does (I think he will).

 

[Moxie]

The French is one I give him increasing odds of getting with each passing year, unless there is a big change in his play.

I don't see why you think his odds get better at RG. Unless it's because Nadal's have to decrease with age. Surely, he looked good for it in 2012, and this year, on paper. I suppose if there is still no one to contest it even next year, beyond the two of them...

Cheers Obsi!

I think he has 4 more in him. A FO and 3 from UO and AO. I am not sure which one he wins twice.

As above…career Slams are surely not a dime-a-dozen. You're so sure he has a French in him? (Obviously, everyone will give me a hard time for pooh-poohing his chances in Paris, but it's fair to argue.) :angel:

I feel Nole has a FO in him because he is good on clay and he does not necessarily have to beat Rafa to do it. Because I have a feeling he will at some point have an opportunity, like Roger did, and he will take it. He might even wait Rafa out, because again, I have a feeling he might have a longer career than Rafa.

Who knows, it is just a guess...

I'm really not a fan of the "I have a feeling" response. It's not a considered argument. I agree that Novak is the second most likely at RG, even at this point, but are you saying that he needs Rafa to be out? You do say he might "wait Rafa out," which is not a huge endorsement. There isn't an endless place-holder with Novak's name on it at the French Open, waiting for the eventuality that Rafa doesn't defend. Others will rise to the challenge, as well. IMO, Djokovic probably gets one more solid chance next year, and then age and other contenders, besides Nadal, will lessen his chances considerably. I'm not saying he can't do it, ever, but some of his best chances have already passed him by. You're right to say that Federer took his opportunity when it was offered him, but he was 28 then, and he had to fight for it. Nole will be 28 next year. Maybe the same window opens for him, or maybe it doesn't. But the window doesn't stay open forever.

 

[shawnbm]

To answer Moxie, I feel that Novak has replaced Roger as the second best clay courter and that he will be extremely competitive in Paris for at least another couple years--barring injury. Nadal won it again as I expected, but he is losing more on clay than before and Nole has snapped up his share of victories on clay against Rafa. The odds seem to be that if he continues to knock at the door, it will open eventually. If Rafa were to go on to win Paris another two or three years, it would make him the superhuman player on any one surface ever. I mean, that would be 11 or 12 majors at one slam on one particular surface. That would be unbelievable--9 is already!

 

[Federberg]

Assuming the status quo persists Novak should get into double figures. But I'm increasingly uncertain about the status quo. Some of those younglings are a serious threat now. It might not happen this year, but I would be surprised if we don't have a Dimitrov (or some other) starting to bag titles. That doesn't mean the big 4 are done, just that someone else is taking the titles we would expect for them. My point is that I'm suddenly less confident about extrapolations that we took for granted in previous years. I await the US Open with great interest and more uncertainty than in recent times!

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

The French is one I give him increasing odds of getting with each passing year, unless there is a big change in his play.

I don't see why you think his odds get better at RG. Unless it's because Nadal's have to decrease with age. Surely, he looked good for it in 2012, and this year, on paper. I suppose if there is still no one to contest it even next year, beyond the two of them...

Cheers Obsi!

I think he has 4 more in him. A FO and 3 from UO and AO. I am not sure which one he wins twice.

As above…career Slams are surely not a dime-a-dozen. You're so sure he has a French in him? (Obviously, everyone will give me a hard time for pooh-poohing his chances in Paris, but it's fair to argue.) :angel:

I feel Nole has a FO in him because he is good on clay and he does not necessarily have to beat Rafa to do it. Because I have a feeling he will at some point have an opportunity, like Roger did, and he will take it. He might even wait Rafa out, because again, I have a feeling he might have a longer career than Rafa.

Who knows, it is just a guess...

I'm really not a fan of the "I have a feeling" response. It's not a considered argument. I agree that Novak is the second most likely at RG, even at this point, but are you saying that he needs Rafa to be out? You do say he might "wait Rafa out," which is not a huge endorsement. There isn't an endless place-holder with Novak's name on it at the French Open, waiting for the eventuality that Rafa doesn't defend. Others will rise to the challenge, as well. IMO, Djokovic probably gets one more solid chance next year, and then age and other contenders, besides Nadal, will lessen his chances considerably. I'm not saying he can't do it, ever, but some of his best chances have already passed him by. You're right to say that Federer took his opportunity when it was offered him, but he was 28 then, and he had to fight for it. Nole will be 28 next year. Maybe the same window opens for him, or maybe it doesn't. But the window doesn't stay open forever.

If anybody else here is basing their guesses (and it is just it, a guess) on something other than their "feelings" I would like to know what that is . Would save me a lot of thinking time...:snigger

When Roger won, he did because he was the second best player on clay, and Rafa failed to meet him in the final. Now, Nole is the second best player on clay so he might have the same chance. There still is a possibility he might win against Rafa at RG , but I will only believe it when I see it.:nono

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Maybe all Novak needs to win the French Open against Rafa are more favorable conditions to him when they play each other than this year or last year. All of his wins on clay against Rafa came in rather damp/cool or at least not really hot and sunny conditions. I think the conditions in the 2012 final were quite OK for Novak even before it started to rain, but Rafa was in much better form than Novak at that time, so Nadal was clearly superior when the conditions were more or less neutral for how their match-up plays out.

Against anyone else one would favor Djokovic regardless of the conditions at this point in time and I think versus Rafa it's at least 50/50 in conditions that are close to neutral or favorable to Novak. I doubt the best-of-five format makes a difference as if I remember correctly Novak never lost from 2-0 or 2-1 sets up since the French Open 2010, so since breaking through at the very top if he won the hypothetical best-of-three match, he always went on to win over Bo5, too.