How Many Grand Slam Titles will Andy Murray Win?

[the AntiPusher]

I'd have him as 3rd favorite at RG if Rafa is healthy (or just somewhat healthy) next year. Obviously a lot could change.

I think Murray will very rarely edge Novak on slow courts. When you stop and think about it his win at Rome this year is the first time he's beaten Nole on a slow court in over half a decade. And he couldn't follow it up at all in the RG final. The second half of the year, or mainly Wimbledon through the USO is where Andy can compete with Novak. And aside from Wimbledon I wouldn't label Murray the favorite in any of their matches either.

Well, normally I'd agree about Paris, but we all saw Rafa last season, a pale shadow of himself, and it took him until clay this year to be competitive again - and now he's gone again. I'm about ready to call it a career on Rafa.

I think Murray was close to Novak in 2012-2013, but his back injury then Lendl leaving, then taking on an assortment of unsuitable replacements for Ivan, he fell off the pace, being whipped routinely by both Federer and Novak. I don't expect that to happen so much now. In fact, his clay form this year was very promising, although he went away lamely in the FO final, almost like a kid in their first slam final.

I think Novak is favourite until otherwise, but Andy will be much less a pushover from now on in. There's really only two of them would be expected to reach the slam finals now, the long-awaited, much-deferred, rivalry will happen...

i know Rafa doesn't have enough options to gain him free points vs Novak so he is no threat. However, Rafa can still be very competitive vs Murray.. Again, if Novak's tennis game goes on hiatus again, Murray will be the favorite on most surfaces but not clay over Rafa.

 

[atttomole]

I think he can win another 4 slams minimum. Now it will be between him and Djokovoc, and I think he will be able to beat Djokovoc a little bit more often with Lendl as coach. I am not sure if Djokovoc will continue to be as dominant as he has been the last 3 years. My prediction is that Murray and Djokovic will be sharing slams roughly equally from now on. I am still assuming that the younger guys will wait another 2 years before they start winning slams.

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, I think Andy will eclipse Vilas before he's done, but for now I'd still give Guillermo a very slight edge.

As for the poll I voted optimistically for five. It is worth noting that he only has two more Slams before he turns 30 years old, and while there's no magical line at 30 in which a player's skills erode quickly, the point is that he's no spring chicken. 2016-17 will still be dominated by the current elites, but once we get to 2018, all bets are off, in my opinion (and hopefully!).

 

[DarthFed]

I'd have him as 3rd favorite at RG if Rafa is healthy (or just somewhat healthy) next year. Obviously a lot could change.

I think Murray will very rarely edge Novak on slow courts. When you stop and think about it his win at Rome this year is the first time he's beaten Nole on a slow court in over half a decade. And he couldn't follow it up at all in the RG final. The second half of the year, or mainly Wimbledon through the USO is where Andy can compete with Novak. And aside from Wimbledon I wouldn't label Murray the favorite in any of their matches either.

Well, normally I'd agree about Paris, but we all saw Rafa last season, a pale shadow of himself, and it took him until clay this year to be competitive again - and now he's gone again. I'm about ready to call it a career on Rafa.

I think Murray was close to Novak in 2012-2013, but his back injury then Lendl leaving, then taking on an assortment of unsuitable replacements for Ivan, he fell off the pace, being whipped routinely by both Federer and Novak. I don't expect that to happen so much now. In fact, his clay form this year was very promising, although he went away lamely in the FO final, almost like a kid in their first slam final.

I think Novak is favourite until otherwise, but Andy will be much less a pushover from now on in. There's really only two of them would be expected to reach the slam finals now, the long-awaited, much-deferred, rivalry will happen...

I wouldn't count your guy out on clay until he calls it a day honestly. I'd be shocked if he wins another one off of clay but on clay he definitely can still get it done. With that said next year figures to be his last "decent" chance, it will only get tougher. But Novak winning this year could help Rafa next year as the former suddenly won't be playing as though his life depends on winning the event. I'm not saying Nole can't or won't win RG next year but he will enter it with a much different feeling than the prior 5+ years.

 

[Obsi]

I think 5.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

He goes on to win 7 of the next 9 only losing out to Rafa in Roland Garros and the 2018 oz title that he unsuccessfully tried to defend again being beaten by the man he took the year before ( Novak). His late career spurt starts people asking if he could be considered the greatest of all time with a paltry 10 titles - but because he goes on his own Nole esq run and the fact that he has won all 4 slams. In the end he finishes with 12. He goes on to win Australia aged 34 when Novak retires from a gruelling semi final against Zverec despite winning and then aged 36 he wins Wimbledon with the help of a last hurrah in front of the 'republican box'......

I strongly disagree with 12.

Let us try to be logical here. Before Murray turns 30, there are only two slams. Let us give one of them to Andy. That would make his count 4. After 30, Serena has won 9 slams (so far). So, Andy should be winning at least 4+9 = 13 slams before he hangs his racquet. :laydownlaughing:lolz:

 

[Rational National]

He goes on to win 7 of the next 9 only losing out to Rafa in Roland Garros and the 2018 oz title that he unsuccessfully tried to defend again being beaten by the man he took the year before ( Novak). His late career spurt starts people asking if he could be considered the greatest of all time with a paltry 10 titles - but because he goes on his own Nole esq run and the fact that he has won all 4 slams. In the end he finishes with 12. He goes on to win Australia aged 34 when Novak retires from a gruelling semi final against Zverec despite winning and then aged 36 he wins Wimbledon with the help of a last hurrah in front of the 'republican box'......

I strongly disagree with 12.

Let us try to be logical here. Before Murray turns 30, there are only two slams. Let us give one of them to Andy. That would make his count 4. After 30, Serena has won 9 slams (so far). So, Andy should be winning at least 4+9 = 13 slams before he hangs his racquet. :laydownlaughing:lolz:

In defence I wasn't being logical...

I would say 7 is a realistic target but it's predicated on winning 2 of the next 4. But if it were 3 of the next 4.........

 

[Carol]

I'd have him as 3rd favorite at RG if Rafa is healthy (or just somewhat healthy) next year. Obviously a lot could change.

I think Murray will very rarely edge Novak on slow courts. When you stop and think about it his win at Rome this year is the first time he's beaten Nole on a slow court in over half a decade. And he couldn't follow it up at all in the RG final. The second half of the year, or mainly Wimbledon through the USO is where Andy can compete with Novak. And aside from Wimbledon I wouldn't label Murray the favorite in any of their matches either.

Well, normally I'd agree about Paris, but we all saw Rafa last season, a pale shadow of himself, and it took him until clay this year to be competitive again - and now he's gone again. I'm about ready to call it a career on Rafa.


I think Murray was close to Novak in 2012-2013, but his back injury then Lendl leaving, then taking on an assortment of unsuitable replacements for Ivan, he fell off the pace, being whipped routinely by both Federer and Novak. I don't expect that to happen so much now. In fact, his clay form this year was very promising, although he went away lamely in the FO final, almost like a kid in their first slam final.

I think Novak is favourite until otherwise, but Andy will be much less a pushover from now on in. There's really only two of them would be expected to reach the slam finals now, the long-awaited,
much-deferred, rivalry will happen...

I wouldn't count your guy out on clay until he calls it a day honestly. I'd be shocked if he wins another one off of clay but on clay he definitely can still get it done. With that said next year figures to be his last "decent" chance, it will only get tougher. But Novak winning this year could help Rafa next year as the former suddenly won't be playing as though his life depends on winning the event. I'm not saying Nole can't or won't win RG next year but he will enter it with a much different feeling than the prior 5+ years.

If you are talking (or comparing) how long Roger has not won a GS (without injuries) then I could understand your point but every player is different and also many different factors have to do something with that. You never know what really is going to happen, just what you think, wish or imagine but at the end each player has the answer making the final results. You don't even know if Novak will continue playing so well or if the others players (the youngest ones or not so young) would improve their game been able to start to win MS and GS. I don't think 30's are so bad, they have more experience and still not so "old". If they keep the legs in good conditions (they can without injuries) then they have some advantage to keep playing well and of course the confidence plays a big roll on them
We'll see what is going to happen.....

 

[DarthFed]

^ Only you would get defensive over something I say about Rafa when I'm actually propping up his chances more than some of his biggest fans are. Roger is a decent example to compare Rafa to as they have similar stature and they will have similar mileage if Rafa stays around long enough. Roger is often looked at as someone who has aged incredibly (granted this mostly comes from posters who don't like him and want him to suck). And yet Roger has won just 1 slam after age 30 and only made 3 other finals.

The circumstances for Novak and Murray in their 30's is going to be quite a bit different than Roger because when Roger turned 30 you had Nole, Rafa, and Murray all in their primes and now there is nothing even close to that in the newer generation. So I'd say their chances of having better results than Roger in his 30's are very high. Rafa is a question mark though, on top of the injuries and their effect on his body the fact is he hasn't won a slam in 2.5 years now. And unlike Roger he hasn't even sniffed one. It's hard to come back after that and I think not winning one for a long time is part of the issue with Roger too. It's been 4 years for him and add that to his aging body and the thoughts in his head that "slam X is his last good chance" it tends to bring out the worst in him at the business end of the slams. That may or may not already be happening with Rafa.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Only you would get defensive over something I say about Rafa when I'm actually propping up his chances more than some of his biggest fans are. Roger is a decent example to compare Rafa to as they have similar stature and they will have similar mileage if Rafa stays around long enough. Roger is often looked at as someone who has aged incredibly (granted this mostly comes from posters who don't like him and want him to suck). And yet Roger has won just 1 slam after age 30 and only made 3 other finals.

The circumstances for Novak and Murray in their 30's is going to be quite a bit different than Roger because when Roger turned 30 you had Nole, Rafa, and Murray all in their primes and now there is nothing even close to that in the newer generation. So I'd say their chances of having better results than Roger in his 30's are very high. Rafa is a question mark though, on top of the injuries and their effect on his body the fact is he hasn't won a slam in 2.5 years now. And unlike Roger he hasn't even sniffed one. It's hard to come back after that and I think not winning one for a long time is part of the issue with Roger too. It's been 4 years for him and add that to his aging body and the thoughts in his head that "slam X is his last good chance" it tends to bring out the worst in him at the business end of the slams. That may or may not already be happening with Rafa.

Among all the Roger losses, this one to Milos easily falls under the category of easily avoidable losses. :cry

 

[Carol]

Well, Murray has taken 3 years to win his third GS since the last time and he has not been injured free either and probably he will win 2 more.....maybe?
As Moya has said a few days ego: "For ten years some people have been predicting the early end of Rafa's career but he is still there and will be longer than those people think"

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, Murray has taken 3 years to win his third GS since the last time and he has not been injured free either and probably he will win 2 more.....maybe?
As Moya has said a few days ego: "For ten years some people have been predicting the early end of Rafa's career but he is still there and will be longer than those people think"

I don't understand what you mean by the bolded phrase. But for your information, Andy went through a back surgery and it took almost an year to come back to his basic form after that.

 

[Carol]

Well, Murray has taken 3 years to win his third GS since the last time and he has not been injured free either and probably he will win 2 more.....maybe?
As Moya has said a few days ego: "For ten years some people have been predicting the early end of Rafa's career but he is still there and will be longer than those people think"

I don't understand what you mean by the bolded phrase. But for your information, Andy went through a back surgery and it took almost an year to come back to his basic form after that.

Very easy to understand, Andy went through a back injury and it took almost one year to come back to his basic form but at the end he has won another GS at his 29 years old and who knows if he will take 2 or 3 more. My point is it doesn't matter having injuries or not or how long they have not won any GS when they come back healthy they can win and unless Rafa would have more problems with his wrist which I doubt it because it's not a serious injury he could win more GS and not just RG

 

[DarthFed]

The difference is Murray has been knocking on the door a lot aside from 2014 when he was returning from the back injury. He's been making a bunch of semis and finals. Rafa even when healthy, and he had been healthy for 1.5 years before the wrist injury, has been far off the pace aside from a decent run up to RG. And he has a lot more mileage and injuries than Murray has had.

But like I said I don't think he should be written off yet but chances are against him just like they have been against Roger for awhile.

 

[Carol]

At the end of 2015 Rafa had a decent run up in spite of his still rough patch, at the beginning of 2016 not so good but when later he was getting again his game/confidence after Montecarlo he made the mistake to play with the wrist injury losing in Madrid and Roma, otherwise those results including RG would be a different story.
If after 5 months of his knee surgery and almost 35 years old most of the Federer's fans were dreaming and thinking that he could win Wimbledon then we can think that others younger players and without surgery could do better
And again, my point is that we'll see how each player will do, I wouldn't bet too much specifically for
anyone in particular

 

[El Dude]

Carol, why do you insist on turning every thread into about Rafa?

 

[Carol]

Carol, why do you insist on turning every thread into about Rafa?

If you would read well the previews comments you would see that OTHERS started to talk about Rafa before me. I've just given my opinion too (if you don't mind)

 

[DarthFed]

^ Only you would get defensive over something I say about Rafa when I'm actually propping up his chances more than some of his biggest fans are. Roger is a decent example to compare Rafa to as they have similar stature and they will have similar mileage if Rafa stays around long enough. Roger is often looked at as someone who has aged incredibly (granted this mostly comes from posters who don't like him and want him to suck). And yet Roger has won just 1 slam after age 30 and only made 3 other finals.

The circumstances for Novak and Murray in their 30's is going to be quite a bit different than Roger because when Roger turned 30 you had Nole, Rafa, and Murray all in their primes and now there is nothing even close to that in the newer generation. So I'd say their chances of having better results than Roger in his 30's are very high. Rafa is a question mark though, on top of the injuries and their effect on his body the fact is he hasn't won a slam in 2.5 years now. And unlike Roger he hasn't even sniffed one. It's hard to come back after that and I think not winning one for a long time is part of the issue with Roger too. It's been 4 years for him and add that to his aging body and the thoughts in his head that "slam X is his last good chance" it tends to bring out the worst in him at the business end of the slams. That may or may not already be happening with Rafa.

Among all the Roger losses, this one to Milos easily falls under the category of easily avoidable losses. :cry

There have been a lot of avoidable losses but he's also won a bunch of matches he should've lost. This semi was extra painful because he really had no business losing that match. I don't think he'd have been able to take Murray in Roger's current form but I sure as hell wanted him to have the opportunity.

 

[the AntiPusher]

^ Only you would get defensive over something I say about Rafa when I'm actually propping up his chances more than some of his biggest fans are. Roger is a decent example to compare Rafa to as they have similar stature and they will have similar mileage if Rafa stays around long enough. Roger is often looked at as someone who has aged incredibly (granted this mostly comes from posters who don't like him and want him to suck). And yet Roger has won just 1 slam after age 30 and only made 3 other finals.

The circumstances for Novak and Murray in their 30's is going to be quite a bit different than Roger because when Roger turned 30 you had Nole, Rafa, and Murray all in their primes and now there is nothing even close to that in the newer generation. So I'd say their chances of having better results than Roger in his 30's are very high. Rafa is a question mark though, on top of the injuries and their effect on his body the fact is he hasn't won a slam in 2.5 years now. And unlike Roger he hasn't even sniffed one. It's hard to come back after that and I think not winning one for a long time is part of the issue with Roger too. It's been 4 years for him and add that to his aging body and the thoughts in his head that "slam X is his last good chance" it tends to bring out the worst in him at the business end of the slams. That may or may not already be happening with Rafa.

Among all the Roger losses, this one to Milos easily falls under the category of easily avoidable losses. :cry

There have been a lot of avoidable losses but he's also won a bunch of matches he should've lost. This semi was extra painful because he really had no business losing that match. I don't think he'd have been able to take Murray in Roger's current form but I sure as hell wanted him to have the opportunity.

Fed should have lost to Cilic

 

[DarthFed]

But he didn't. He was given a 2nd chance and then became the Cilic the next match...