Grigor Has Arrived (Umm...Maybe?)

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Dude has a tendency to start knee-jerk reaction threads such as "Novak is Done" etc based on one recent result. However, I am cautiously optimistic about Grigor. He won Brisbane and followed it up with a good run at AO. Most importantly, he went toe-to-toe with Vamos version of Rafa. So, I do agree that he has arrived.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

GameSetAndMath has a tendency to misinterpret threads, changing "The Reign of Novak is Over" to "Novak is Done."

Of course in this era of political spin and alternative facts, I suppose that is the norm.

But seriously, I did not say "Novak is Done." I said "His Reign is Over." I stand by that statement in that I think his era of sole dominance is over, which is pretty much what I talked about in that thread.

 

[isabelle]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

he was close to win vs Manacors' bull, so I guess he can have a great career, hope he can continue to work, to improve and finally to beat old guys....

 

[AnonymousFan]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I'd like to withhold judgement for a bit. We've seen plenty of players put together a good run and losing a close match, and not really go anywhere from that.

Now, Dimitrov clearly has the goods. And Wawrinka lost that tight match against Djokovic at the AO, then came back a year later and won the title. So I'm hoping that this represents a breakthrough for Dimitrov, as I like his game.

I do think he could be one of those players to sneak a slam or two as the "Big 4" dominance declines and the young guns aren't quite there yet.

Yup, same boat here. Fool me once....

 

[herios]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I am very impressed with his start of this season I hope he continues without major hiccups.
There is no doubt there is a direct correlation between his resurgence and his new coach vallverdu.
It is just so obvious. When Vallverdu came on board, mid 2016 season, or about 8 month ago, Grigor was ranked 37.
He started to climb back right away. The rest of last season he not just stopped dropping in ranking, but also rebounded and climbed to 17, mainly under the radar.
Now, he strated the season with a bang, winning Brisbane, defeating 3 top 10 players in the process, and then he get to the SF of the AO.
I saw only one match of Grigor's at the AO, the match with Goffin. his main issues, the very defensive positioning well behind the baseline and the lack of strategy, were addressed. He plays with much purpose, dictates more and goes for winners and not counterpunches like before.
The start of his season mirrors perfectly how Milos started last year, with the Brisbane win and the SF at the AO.
Milos had his best season on Tour in 2016, started 14 and finished 3.
Grigor started 17 and now he is 13. How far he will go?
I will track Grigor's results in comparison to Milos as of last year. He may just mirror it to the end.
As Milos is born 6 month earlier, both made their move at 25y of age.

 

[isabelle]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I am very impressed with his start of this season I hope he continues without major hiccups.
There is no doubt there is a direct correlation between his resurgence and his new coach vallverdu.
It is just so obvious. When Vallverdu came on board, mid 2016 season, or about 8 month ago, Grigor was ranked 37.
He started to climb back right away. The rest of last season he not just stopped dropping in ranking, but also rebounded and climbed to 17, mainly under the radar.
Now, he strated the season with a bang, winning Brisbane, defeating 3 top 10 players in the process, and then he get to the SF of the AO.
I saw only one match of Grigor's at the AO, the match with Goffin. his main issues, the very defensive positioning well behind the baseline and the lack of strategy, were addressed. He plays with much purpose, dictates more and goes for winners and not counterpunches like before.
The start of his season mirrors perfectly how Milos started last year, with the Brisbane win and the SF at the AO.
Milos had his best season on Tour in 2016, started 14 and finished 3.
Grigor started 17 and now he is 13. How far he will go?
I will track Grigor's results in comparison to Milos as of last year. He may just mirror it to the end.
As Milos is born 6 month earlier, both made their move at 25y of age.

he's playing at home in Sofia this week

 

[mrzz]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Well, I was having a debate, somewhere else, with a former member of this board about Dimitrov, around last September, and I was saying that I still believed then that Dimitrov could reach GS status. Obviously the start of 2017 only reinforced that hope. Let´s see this week, a win or lose here does not change much, of course, but if he ends up winning it will be something like a 16-1 start to year, which is probably more than everything the field bar big 5 has accomplished in the last 10 years.

 

[sid]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Untill Grigor wins @ least a Masters he has not Arrived with the big boys,once he got a Masters under his belt then we can say he's Arrived.

 

[the AntiPusher]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I am very impressed with his start of this season I hope he continues without major hiccups.
There is no doubt there is a direct correlation between his resurgence and his new coach vallverdu.
It is just so obvious. When Vallverdu came on board, mid 2016 season, or about 8 month ago, Grigor was ranked 37.
He started to climb back right away. The rest of last season he not just stopped dropping in ranking, but also rebounded and climbed to 17, mainly under the radar.
Now, he strated the season with a bang, winning Brisbane, defeating 3 top 10 players in the process, and then he get to the SF of the AO.
I saw only one match of Grigor's at the AO, the match with Goffin. his main issues, the very defensive positioning well behind the baseline and the lack of strategy, were addressed. He plays with much purpose, dictates more and goes for winners and not counterpunches like before.
The start of his season mirrors perfectly how Milos started last year, with the Brisbane win and the SF at the AO.
Milos had his best season on Tour in 2016, started 14 and finished 3.
Grigor started 17 and now he is 13. How far he will go?
I will track Grigor's results in comparison to Milos as of last year. He may just mirror it to the end.
As Milos is born 6 month earlier, both made their move at 25y of age.

Good thing since you wrote off Rafa, he was able to trounce both of your babies.. I like a Grigor's game..he doesn't place his serve as well as Roger's but he has a lot of the strokes and is getting better., I really don't have an opinion on Milos but he does win a lot of matches and is a legitimate top ten player.

 

[mrzz]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Untill Grigor wins @ least a Masters he has not Arrived with the big boys,once he got a Masters under his belt then we can say he's Arrived.

I see your point, sid, but with the big 4 + Wawrinka having a stronghold of everything important in sight, we have to rely on smaller accomplishments if you want to get "this ball on the rise". After player X have won a masters/slam/WTF, then it is blatantly obvious that he had "arrived". That´s why (I guess) Dude opened the thread.

But, again, on the face value you are completely right.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I can't remember my exact thought process, but it was probably because we finally saw what Grigor can do when he's got his head on straight. What I've seen so far this year is a legit top 10 player, possibly top 5 - on par, or even slightly better than, Milos and Kei, although not on the level of the Big 5 (incl. Stan).

Now whether he can be consistent is a different matter. But if I look at the three best players his generation, Grigor has the best overall game and--again, if he can remain focused--probably has the best chance of winning a Masters and even a Slam. I know Milos could win one on a fast court, but I can't shake the feeling that he's not much more than "Isner Plus." In today's game you really need the full package to win a Slam.

That said, Goran Ivanisevic--a very similar player to Milos--won a Slam later in his career, during the soft period between the fall of Sampras and the rise of Federer. Milos might not win a Slam until the Big Four are in serious decline, but that isn't far off. To win one in 2017, I think he'd need a lot of luck - an upset or two to clear out the draw a bit. But he'll have his opportunities over the next few years as the Big Four dip and the younger generation isn't quite prime time.

Kei? He may be the best player never to win a Masters/Grand Prix level tournament. But it seems like only a matter of time. Maybe someone like Thiem takes out Rafa in a clay Masters this year, and Novak has another brain-fart, and Andy is pre-2016 Andy, and Roger isn't playing...Kei could win one. I highly doubt he'll ever win a Slam, though.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Alright, I just watched the 5th set of the Dimitrov-Nadal SF (I know, I know, this is a couple weeks late - but I only watched the first couple sets on the night of, before going to bed). Here are my impressions:

It is two-fold, really, and sort of speaks to the contradictory nature of Dimitrov as a player.

1. He looks great. The best news is that he looked like he really cared. He got upset when he lost points, looked flustered when he was about to lose, but then fought back. All of this is great news for a player who always had the talent, but seemingly not the drive. For the first time that i can remember, Grigor seems to really want to win big matches (in other words, knowing he can crawl into Maria Sharapova's bed afterwards isn't enough solace anymore).

2. He looks a bit...soft. I don't mean mentally, as that seems to be much stronger now. I mean in terms of his shots - his actual skills and game. He plays a lovely game, with great movement and almost Federer-esque shots, and clearly displayed more physically than the walking wounded warrior who ultimately vanquished him. But he reminded me a bit of Federer in 2014-15, which is still very very good, but if you remember, the problem with Federer in those years is that he didn't quite have the firepower to beat the big guys. So I worry about this with Dimitrov.

So here's my verdict: He is going to to be a very good player for the next few years, probably at least as good as his closest peers, Raonic and Nishikori. He's going to be top ten or better, and probably win at least a Masters. He can beat almost anyone on tour, except for a true elite player in prime form. But that's just it: I'm not sure he'll be able to beat the best at their best. He has a B+/A- game, not a true elite A/A+ game. Or that's my impression.

All that said, I really like him and want him to do well. He's fun to watch and can do more than almost anyone on the tennis court.

 

[mrzz]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Very good analysis, El Dude. But there are two things that I want to consider:

1) Sometimes we are too deterministic in our analysis. Had Dimitrov converted one of those two break points the whole analysis would have been different. That´s why I am not a fan of definitive judgments based on one match. I know you saw him play more than that, but you know what I mean.

2) Even considering the point above, I think you´re really spot on, as things stand now. But finding the next level is the day-to-day objective of this guys. Who could have predicted Djokovic 2011? Who could have predicted Federer fifth set at this AO? Who saw Wawrinka coming? Who saw Soderling coming (damn Mono...)? What I mean is: yes, this last step is hard, but players sometimes find it. Predicting the ultimate level this guys might achieve sometimes sound like trying to predict a completely random event. But, yes, you´re future scenario is quite possible, sure.

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

To be honest, mrzz, I'm trying to be cautious because I really like Grigor (for awhile, he was a candidate for "Roger replacement" when it looked like Roger's career was going south in 2013 and I was looking for a young player to root for) and his career pattern just doesn't leave a lot of room for optimism.

On the other hand, I saw what I saw - and based upon that match vs Rafa, and what I said above, I could see him becoming a top 5 player for a few years, and winning a few Slams.

So what I say in that paragraph is sort of the cautious projection, but I could see him going beyond that. I've said several times before this year, even when Grigor looked to be a disappointment in 2015-16, that he's the type of guy who could take a step forward in his late 20s if he gets hungry. And what i saw against Nadal is that hunger. Finally!

Regardless, he's one of the major reasons why the tour just got a lot more interesting than it was a month ago.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Grigor has only opened up more questions with his effort in Oz. Can he answer them, is the ultimate question...

 

[El Dude]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I had previously only watched the first set and a half, so watching the 5th set was new. What struck me is that the match was somewhat typical, even vintage, Rafa: play attrition, keep pace with your opponent but not out-play him, then wait for opportunities and take advantage of them. It is amazing how effectively he does this.

Grigor was up in the 5th set and looking like he would cruise to victory. The match really was on his racquet. But he fell apart a bit, and I suppose if we want to worry about his ability to win big, we can see that he feel apart when Rafa applied pressure at the right time.

That said, that was against - who is the unparalleled master of that approach. I think Grigor in that form could beat almost anyone else, except perhaps Roger and Novak. I honestly think that the Grigor of the 2017 AO was equal or better to Andy Murray.

I'm not saying that Grigor is as good a player as Andy - clearly he doesn't (and won't) have the overall career and consistency of Andy. I am saying that at his best, or at the level we just saw, he can play toe to toe with Andy.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Grigor might mature enough to start to let fly consistently, and we'll all be left wondering what kept him. Some players take longer to get serious about their careers. I just hope that oz isn't something we look back on in about 8 months and think, "huh yeah, I forgot that, how's he being doing since?" He has a very stylish game, and one I'd love to see hit peak in a slam final...

 

[El Dude]

Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

Grigor might mature enough to start to let fly consistently, and we'll all be left wondering what kept him. Some players take longer to get serious about their careers. I just hope that oz isn't something we look back on in about 8 months and think, "huh yeah, I forgot that, how's he being doing since?" He has a very stylish game, and one I'd love to see hit peak in a slam final...

I think you and I share a similar liking to, and reservations about, Grigor.

 

[isabelle]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

WC for Grigor in Marrakech (Morocco)

 

[mightyjeditribble]

RE: Grigor Has Arrived (Finally)

I'd like to withhold judgement for a bit. We've seen plenty of players put together a good run and losing a close match, and not really go anywhere from that.

Now, Dimitrov clearly has the goods. And Wawrinka lost that tight match against Djokovic at the AO, then came back a year later and won the title. So I'm hoping that this represents a breakthrough for Dimitrov, as I like his game.

I do think he could be one of those players to sneak a slam or two as the "Big 4" dominance declines and the young guns aren't quite there yet.

Sadly, his more recent results suggest that my scepticism was perhaps justified ...

We'll see how the rest of his clay season goes, but Marrakesh sure wasn't exactly a great start ...

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