Geopolitics in the Middle East

[shawnbm]

Indeed, all as a result of the single most impactful event of human history in the last millennium--the War To End All Wars (not)

 

[Federberg]

Well, it is not a good situation--it goes without saying. I know we can go back to Jewish homeland and conquest of Caanan, the Babylonian exile, the Roman domination and destruction, the Jewish diaspora, the Palestinians (both Jewish and Arab) through the millennia, the Balfour Declaration, Zionism, the First World War, the Arab Revolt of 1936, the Irgun/Stern Gang attacks in the late thirties and forties, Arab/Muslim retorts, the Second World War, the formation of Israel in 1948 and the Arab (mostly Muslim) Palestinian diaspora since then, the Suez and six day wars and what has been happening with wars and skirmishes these last 70 plus years, but at the end of the day we are now in a post-atomic and post-modern world where the only thing closest to democracy in that part of the world is Israel. The powers that were pushed for and created that state and the rise of Nazism sped up the process. Israel is not going anywhere and the Palestinians need to be given something. But, they elect Hamas as their leaders, whose charter is to kill Jewish people and eradicate the state of Israel. Other groups have that as well--Israel does not as to any other group or ethnic group of people, only to destroy acknowledged terrorist groups like Hamas.

Is there a solution? Can anyone tell me?

I don't agree that the Palestinians elected Hamas. They didn't. The Palestinian people don't like them. Neighbouring Arabs don't like them. The only consensus in the Arab world is a hatred for Jews. The Israelis are not blameless in this. Netanyahu and other right wingers have done work behind the scenes to sustain Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian people in a cynical attempt to forestall any move towards a two state solution. Israel is here to stay, particularly since the influx of Jews from Eastern Europe who are virulently racist by the way. You should see how they treat Jews of colour. I honestly don't know if there's a solution at all. Clearly there needs to be a two state solution of some sort. It is intolerable for Israelis to live an existence where neighbours want to wipe them out. But the Palestinians also have a right to statehood. The current situation where Arab immigrants in Europe are destabilising Western culture is abhorrent. To an extent America is provoking this. If I had any wish, I would love to see European countries do what the Southern States are doing in the US. Shipping the migrants to Northern States. I would love to see European countries ship the consequences of American foreign policy over to America. Perhaps if the problem is on their door step they might take a more reconciliatory posture...

 

[shawnbm]

^ interesting read there Federberg. I don't know of any solution other than statehood for Palestinians and then a slow work over time of getting Arab neighbors to come around like Jordan and Egypt to letting Israel exist and not have charters or ideology that Israel must be obliterated. How this can come to pass is hard to fathom. Bibi certainly has not helped with the aggressive push for more settlements in the West Bank. That really needs to stop.

 

[Federberg]

^ interesting read there Federberg. I don't know of any solution other than statehood for Palestinians and then a slow work over time of getting Arab neighbors to come around like Jordan and Egypt to letting Israel exist and not have charters or ideology that Israel must be obliterated. How this can come to pass is hard to fathom. Bibi certainly has not helped with the aggressive push for more settlements in the West Bank. That really needs to stop.

Agreed regarding Palestinian statehood. I have a feeling that the solution will eventually be dispersing the Palestinian. people amongst the neighbouring countries and allowing Israel to go its own way. It's ironic, if the Iranians weren't so cussed, there would probably have been a solution of some sort. It's particularly tragic because I can think of only one culture that has the same deep cultural intellect of the Israelis. The Iranians! If you want to solve half of all global problems find a way to eliminate those mullahs that run Iran. I can think of nothing that would contribute to global peace and academic advancement quite like that!

 

[shawnbm]

Yes, we need another Cyrus the Great to arise in the Persian area!

 

[tented]

Agreed regarding Palestinian statehood. I have a feeling that the solution will eventually be dispersing the Palestinian. people amongst the neighbouring countries and allowing Israel to go its own way. It's ironic, if the Iranians weren't so cussed, there would probably have been a solution of some sort. It's particularly tragic because I can think of only one culture that has the same deep cultural intellect of the Israelis. The Iranians! If you want to solve half of all global problems find a way to eliminate those mullahs that run Iran. I can think of nothing that would contribute to global peace and academic advancement quite like that!

There’s a travel show in the US by a guy who tours all over Europe and the Mideast. He went to Iran several years ago, and interviewed average citizens on the street. You could easily sense they were not happy with the political situation, and would rid the country of its current rulers if they thought they could get away with it.The show effectively portrayed there are Iranians who want peace and not to live under strict Muslim rule.

 

[Federberg]

There’s a travel show in the US by a guy who tours all over Europe and the Mideast. He went to Iran several years ago, and interviewed average citizens on the street. You could easily sense they were not happy with the political situation, and would rid the country of its current rulers if they thought they could get away with it.The show effectively portrayed there are Iranians who want peace and not to live under strict Muslim rule.

I think the overwhelming majority of them want change. It's one of the great tragedies in the world. And the US is entirely to blame for overlooking the corruption of the Pahlavi's

 

[mrzz]

I don't agree that the Palestinians elected Hamas. They didn't.

In 2006 they did. The name of the party was "Change and Reform" but I have never seen any source disputing that this was Hamas, the political wing, naturally. But I don't post this as a dig or accusation against anyone. I guess absolutely every country in the world already voted for something or someone monstrous. Who knows what they were promising then and the details of the context at the time. The problem lies in using elections as a metric of some sort of "goodness of people". The fact that they voted for it in the last elections they had does not put guns collective in their hands in 2023.

On the other hand, there is a social problem there, hatred flowing from all sides. Trying to pretend one side is complete and absolutely peaceful, while laying all the blame in one central big bad oppressor is a known flawed approach that will never solve anything. (not saying you did just that, but this particular bit can be read like this, and it is surely used like this by others).

 

[mrzz]

They lived in the same area before the state of Israel was ordained via Rothschild lobbying of the British Government through the Balfour declaration.

I am replying to this particular post, but the actually I am answering other points raised in posts above and bellow it.

Problem with the "historical" argument, in a nutshell, is that it is disconnected from reality, and therefore irrelevant. Basically all borders valid and recognized in the world where decided by arguments of force, either in recent or distant past. Modern Europe is a recent example. Of course, political, economical and religious factors play out in the way that things settle, but it is completely fictional to believe that some historical or higher (whatever that means) "justice" has ever drawn a single meter of state borders in a map. It is always decided by force, and common sense given the force factor.

Again, I am not defending any sides here, my point is that most times people judge this question from an impossible perspective.

 

[shawnbm]

Good points here ^--true

 

[britbox]

I am replying to this particular post, but the actually I am answering other points raised in posts above and bellow it.

Problem with the "historical" argument, in a nutshell, is that it is disconnected from reality, and therefore irrelevant. Basically all borders valid and recognized in the world where decided by arguments of force, either in recent or distant past. Modern Europe is a recent example. Of course, political, economical and religious factors play out in the way that things settle, but it is completely fictional to believe that some historical or higher (whatever that means) "justice" has ever drawn a single meter of state borders in a map. It is always decided by force, and common sense given the force factor.

Again, I am not defending any sides here, my point is that most times people judge this question from an impossible perspective.

It's not really a historical "argument" as such. Borders have always been fluid - even in recent times (i.e. the last 100 years), I recommend going to look at a "before and after" map between two time dates. For instance, The biggest land mass in the world during the 19th century was actually "Grand Tartary" defended by the Golden Horde. Yet, few will likely have heard of it, and there are declassified documents saying the Soviets wanted to completely erase that part of history. You'd have to say, they did a pretty good job.

The biggest mockery we have now is "Who is indigenous?" to a particular part of the map, with financial reparations being sought. Borders are always resolved by the power of the day - I agree with that premise entirely.

 

[Federberg]

 

[shawnbm]

Been a looooong time since I have seen the Shah of Iran. I recall those days. Not a good time for US policy towards that area of the world and we get his overthrow and the mullahs going forward to now.

 

[Federberg]

This was absolutely brutal. Dark humour. I was deeply troubled about his retort about the West Bank and proportionality...

 

[Fiero425]

I was appalled way back when w/ this guy! It probably happened sooner, but I thought we lost our moral authority backing him to the hilt! The guy was torturing his detractors, imprisoning any one on a whim! I could'n't even stand his wife who appeared oblivious to what was going on! They got away w/ it in the end since they were allowed to leave the country before taking the country back to its religious roots! Too bad it wasn't a Ceaușescu ending for them!

 

[Federberg]

Fascinating

 

[Federberg]

This is really really bad. If this is true, and Israel knew a year ago?? Bibi has to go at the very least. It also puts into question the level of support they should receive. Very bad!

Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago​

A blueprint reviewed by The Times laid out the attack in detail. Israeli officials dismissed it as aspirational and ignored specific warnings.

Hamas-led gunmen seized an Israeli military vehicle after infiltrating areas of southern Israel during the Oct. 7 attacks. A blueprint for similar attacks was circulating among Israeli leaders long before Hamas struck.Credit...Ahmed Zakot/Reuters

By Ronen Bergman and Adam Goldman
Reporting from Tel Aviv
Nov. 30, 2023


Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.
The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.
The translated document, which was reviewed by The New York Times, did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters.
Hamas followed the blueprint with shocking precision. The document called for a barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot — all of which happened on Oct. 7.


The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered its intelligence and whether there were leaks inside the Israeli security establishment.
The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but experts determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas’s capabilities, according to documents and officials. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document, as well.

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A woman running to the concrete shelter at her home in Ashkelon, Israel, after a rocket siren sounded on Oct. 7.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Last year, shortly after the document was obtained, officials in the Israeli military’s Gaza division, which is responsible for defending the border with Gaza, said that Hamas’s intentions were unclear.
“It is not yet possible to determine whether the plan has been fully accepted and how it will be manifested,” read a military assessment reviewed by The Times.

Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.
But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed by The Times.
“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”
“It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. “It’s not just a raid on a village.”
Officials privately concede that, had the military taken these warnings seriously and redirected significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas attacked, Israel could have blunted the attacks or possibly even prevented them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/...on=CompanionColumn&contentCollection=Trending

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Israeli soldiers were deployed in an area where civilians were killed in the southern city of Sderot on Oct. 7.Credit...Oren Ziv/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Instead, the Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Israeli security officials have already acknowledged that they failed to protect the country, and the government is expected to assemble a commission to study the events leading up to the attacks. The Jericho Wall document lays bare a yearslong cascade of missteps that culminated in what officials now regard as the worst Israeli intelligence failure since the surprise attack that led to the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.
Underpinning all these failures was a single, fatally inaccurate belief that Hamas lacked the capability to attack and would not dare to do so. That belief was so ingrained in the Israeli government, officials said, that they disregarded growing evidence to the contrary.

The Israeli military and the Israeli Security Agency, which is in charge of counterterrorism in Gaza, declined to comment.
Officials would not say how they obtained the Jericho Wall document, but it was among several versions of attack plans collected over the years. A 2016 Defense Ministry memorandum viewed by The Times, for example, says, “Hamas intends to move the next confrontation into Israeli territory.”

Such an attack would most likely involve hostage-taking and “occupying an Israeli community (and perhaps even a number of communities),” the memo reads.

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Vehicles caught fire in Ashkelon, Israel, as rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7.Credit...Ilan Rosenberg/Reuters

The Jericho Wall document, named for the ancient fortifications in the modern-day West Bank, was even more explicit. It detailed rocket attacks to distract Israeli soldiers and send them hurrying into bunkers, and drones to disable the elaborate security measures along the border fence separating Israel and Gaza.

Hamas fighters would then break through 60 points in the wall, storming across the border into Israel. The document begins with a quote from the Quran: “Surprise them through the gate. If you do, you will certainly prevail.”
The same phrase has been widely used by Hamas in its videos and statements since Oct. 7.
One of the most important objectives outlined in the document was to overrun the Israeli military base in Re’im, which is home to the Gaza division responsible for protecting the region. Other bases that fell under the division’s command were also listed.

Hamas carried out that objective on Oct. 7, rampaging through Re’im and overrunning parts of the base.
The audacity of the blueprint, officials said, made it easy to underestimate. All militaries write plans that they never use, and Israeli officials assessed that, even if Hamas invaded, it might muster a force of a few dozen, not the hundreds who ultimately attacked.
Israel had also misread Hamas’s actions. The group had negotiated for permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel, which Israeli officials took as a sign that Hamas was not looking for a war.
But Hamas had been drafting attack plans for many years, and Israeli officials had gotten hold of previous iterations of them. What could have been an intelligence coup turned into one of the worst miscalculations in Israel’s 75-year history.

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A truck reportedly transported a captured Israeli woman in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on Oct. 7.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

In September 2016, the defense minister’s office compiled a top-secret memorandum based on a much earlier iteration of a Hamas attack plan. The memorandum, which was signed by the defense minister at the time, Avigdor Lieberman, said that an invasion and hostage-taking would “lead to severe damage to the consciousness and morale of the citizens of Israel.”
The memo, which was viewed by The Times, said that Hamas had purchased sophisticated weapons, GPS jammers and drones. It also said that Hamas had increased its fighting force to 27,000 people — having added 6,000 to its ranks in a two-year period. Hamas had hoped to reach 40,000 by 2020, the memo determined.
Last year, after Israel obtained the Jericho Wall document, the military’s Gaza division drafted its own intelligence assessment of this latest invasion plan.

Conflict in Israel and Gaza, in Photos
Hamas had “decided to plan a new raid, unprecedented in its scope,” analysts wrote in the assessment reviewed by The Times. It said that Hamas intended to carry out a deception operation followed by a “large-scale maneuver” with the aim of overwhelming the division.

But the Gaza division referred to the plan as a “compass.” In other words, the division determined that Hamas knew where it wanted to go but had not arrived there yet.
On July 6, 2023, the veteran Unit 8200 analyst wrote to a group of other intelligence experts that dozens of Hamas commandos had recently conducted training exercises, with senior Hamas commanders observing.
The training included a dry run of shooting down Israeli aircraft and taking over a kibbutz and a military training base, killing all the cadets. During the exercise, Hamas fighters used the same phrase from the Quran that appeared at the top of the Jericho Wall attack plan, she wrote in the email exchanges viewed by The Times.
The analyst warned that the drill closely followed the Jericho Wall plan, and that Hamas was building the capacity to carry it out.
The colonel in the Gaza division applauded the analysis but said the exercise was part of a “totally imaginative” scenario, not an indication of Hamas’s ability to pull it off.

“In short, let’s wait patiently,” the colonel wrote.

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An Israeli soldier in the southern city of Sderot near the bodies of Israelis killed by Palestinian gunmen who entered from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7.Credit...Tsafrir Abayov/Associated Press

The back-and-forth continued, with some colleagues supporting the analyst’s original conclusion. Soon, she invoked the lessons of the 1973 war, in which Syrian and Egyptian armies overran Israeli defenses. Israeli forces regrouped and repelled the invasion, but the intelligence failure has long served as a lesson for Israeli security officials.
“We already underwent a similar experience 50 years ago on the southern front in connection with a scenario that seemed imaginary, and history may repeat itself if we are not careful,” the analyst wrote to her colleagues.
While ominous, none of the emails predicted that war was imminent. Nor did the analyst challenge the conventional wisdom among Israeli intelligence officials that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was not interested in war with Israel. But she correctly assessed that Hamas’s capabilities had drastically improved. The gap between the possible and the aspirational had narrowed significantly.
The failures to connect the dots echoed another analytical failure more than two decades ago, when the American authorities also had multiple indications that the terrorist group Al Qaeda was preparing an assault. The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were largely a failure of analysis and imagination, a government commission concluded.

“The Israeli intelligence failure on Oct. 7 is sounding more and more like our 9/11,” said Ted Singer, a recently retired senior C.I.A. official who worked extensively in the Middle East. “The failure will be a gap in analysis to paint a convincing picture to military and political leadership that Hamas had the intention to launch the attack when it did.”

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The breached security fence in the village of Kfar Azza, Israel, three days after it was attacked by Hamas.Credit...Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv. His latest book is “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations,” published by Random House. More about Ronen Bergman
Adam Goldman writes about the F.B.I. and national security. He has been a journalist for more than two decades. More about Adam Goldman

 

[shawnbm]

I just read this article before coming here to see if folks had seen it. After 9/11, nothing can be minimized when it comes to these kind of fanatics. Too bad it was not taken more seriously, a lot of Israeli, Palestinian and other nations' citizens might not have perished in the last two months.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah it’s definitely a huge Intelligence failure. You can’t sleep when you have terrorists on your border…

 

[Federberg]