Gaming the rest of the clay season

[britbox]

Well, sorry but I consider Stan an opportunist winner

A three time major winning opportunist winner? Seriously?

 

[DarthFed]

I think Roger could maintain his #4 ranking if he takes a WC to Rome and does reasonably well. I disagree that the #4 doesn't matter much to him or Rafa. Roger has said that he'll play RG if he feels he has a reasonable chance to win it, and the #4 keeps him as far away from Murray, Djokovic and Wawrinka as long as possible. I believe everyone agrees they're the top contenders, after Rafa. Nadal would like the #4 slot for the same reason. I think Rafa's "coronation" on clay is already complete, but I don't think he'll run the table, nor do I necessarily think he needs to, as long as he beats Novak somewhere along the way, and Roger, if they meet before RG. I'm glad to see you have renewed faith in Fed's chances to spoil Rafa's clay season, but I'm not buying that until I see it, no matter his more aggressive game and its effectiveness on HCs. I also think you're shaking off Novak prematurely, while still naming Stan a threat. Andy, Novak and Stan have been a bit MIA this season, and they have two tournaments to put their games/heads right before the Major. All 3 are big question marks, though I'll give you this: even if Stan does nothing before RG, you never know if he'll just make a stunning run at the French. He's having a career that defies prediction, for sure. I also agree with you about the threat that Kyrgios can be, even if no one is gaming him to win the French Open. No one wants to see him in their quarter, and I understand why you say you don't want to see him in Roger's way at Wimbledon.

Roger would probably have to make the final of Rome to even have a chance to keep the #4 ranking. I don't see it happening even if he plays which is doubtful. And I don't think Roger has to worry about seeing Murray at any point in any tournament, he doesn't cause much worry though I guess from a cumulative perspective it could suck to play him in the QF's. I think you are underestimating what's happened with Djokovic. His game is in the crapper and it isn't getting out of there right away, he's not going from a guy who looks like a barely top 15-20 player to playing like the #1 again overnight. That's not how it works. I say he has less than a 50% chance to even make the QF's at RG at this point and I'm not kidding.

Stan has been himself this year, he did decent at AO and IW and has had a few bad results sprinkled in. As you say he could make a big run at RG out of nowhere. That's his norm now.

I wouldn't say I have any confidence that Roger would take Nadal at RG, but given 4 straight wins including 3 big ones this year, the last on a very slow HC, I'd say Roger figures to be his biggest threat unless Djokovic comes to form very quickly. Rafa beat Fed at Wimbledon even though on paper he should lose 10 of 10, and the biggest factor was the confidence from beatdowns on clay and Fed's low confidence from the beatdowns that made it possible. I'm not saying the same happens at RG but suddenly Fed might be in Rafa's head a bit.

 

[DarthFed]

Stan is an odd champion, and I'll agree with you on that, given his lack of results in MS, etc. But he has a very big game, when he brings it. Not to start WWIII, but I think you and I both believe that he might have lucked his first one a bit, when Rafa's back went. But he beat Novak at the AO to get to that final, and being there means you have a chance to win, whatever the circumstances. He shocked Novak in the 2015 RG final, with some red-line of his game. The thing that was impressive about his win in USO 2016 was, without playing as well as in RG, he played smarter. If you don't think he could have won those 3 Majors without an asterisk, then we could argue no one could beat the Big 4 without one. Stan has found his way in 3 Majors. You might call 1 a fluke, but not 3.

Rafa was getting his ass beat before the injury though. That's the part a lot of his fans leave out. He was down a set and a break before his back went. The narrative from Nadal fans that Wawrinka has been "opportunistic" is ridiculous. He beat Novak in the QF that year, a much much better player than Nadal on that surface. In 2015 he beat Roger in the QF's of RG and then again beat Novak who had probably the 2nd best year in the Open era. The third slam wasn't nearly as difficult of a draw but he again took out Novak in the final who granted wasn't at his best but still, he was world #1 and not playing like he is now. His slams are the polar opposite of opportunistic.

I've never understood the Rafa-fan hate towards Stan. You should be grateful for him otherwise Novak is probably sitting on 15 slams. As much as the 2014 AO final may have hurt, just remember he took Novak out there and what do you think would've happened if it was Nole-Rafa in the final that year?

 

[mrzz]

I don't want to build anything, I'm just giving my opinion about a player who never has convinced me too much, always been under the shadow of Federer but yes, trying to improve and to show that he can make it too and he did but in "the perfect time". I don't think the players don't want to face him on a final (maybe only Novak?) remember that they know each other much better than we know them, I would better say that unless the others players would pay bad, really bad I don't see him winning another GS

I am perfectly fine with opinions out of the ordinary, don't worry. It is true that these guys know each other much better than we know them -- we actually don't know them (some exceptions here and there). It really seems to me that nobody wants to face him on finals and semis, but yes, I have no solid evidence behind this.

But I really question the "perfect time" part. If you take that kind of argument too far, you can discredit simply everyone. At AO it was surely not the perfect time to face neither Djokovic or Nadal, and even taking the injury into consideration, as I said, he battle past the guy to beat there, and was strongly leading when Nadal got injured (maybe induced by the effort needed just to hang in there). At RG he beat the guy who was winning everything on clay (he won the two masters he played that year) and was the #1 in the world, and is an all time great, and would go on to win four majors in a row. At USOpen he beat the #1 in the final, and passed by Nishikori and del Potro in the process (a former finalist and a former winner). This is not the description of "perfect time", quite the opposite.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa was getting his ass beat before the injury though. That's the part a lot of his fans leave out. He was down a set and a break before his back went. The narrative from Nadal fans that Wawrinka has been "opportunistic" is ridiculous. He beat Novak in the QF that year, a much much better player than Nadal on that surface. In 2015 he beat Roger in the QF's of RG and then again beat Novak who had probably the 2nd best year in the Open era. The third slam wasn't nearly as difficult of a draw but he again took out Novak in the final who granted wasn't at his best but still, he was world #1 and not playing like he is now. His slams are the polar opposite of opportunistic.

I've never understood the Rafa-fan hate towards Stan. You should be grateful for him otherwise Novak is probably sitting on 15 slams. As much as the 2014 AO final may have hurt, just remember he took Novak out there and what do you think would've happened if it was Nole-Rafa in the final that year?

You're quoting me, but I hope you're not putting those words in my mouth. "Rafa fans" think this and that, etc. Look, I was addressing Carol's point about fluking out 3 Majors. My actual point, not the old debate, was that, if Stan had never won another Major, only just the one where, yes, he came hot out of the blocks, but Nadal came up lame 2-3 games into the 2nd set. There was a long way to go in that match, and, had he never backed it up, we might have suspected it was a bit of a fluke, like Gaudio was, and I think Cilic will be. Based on the otherwise unreliability of Stan's approach to most other types of tournaments, any reasonable fan would think he'd lucked into a bit. Having backed it up, however, we now know that he really does have the stuff to beat anyone, on the given day...and across 7 matches.

 

[Carol]

What is ridiculous is to think that Novak was unbeatable, he was, he is and he will like EVERY single player. And talking about Wawrinka again....IMO he deserved to win those three GS but not with all the honors. First at all talking about the AO he beat Novak, yes, but Nadal at that time was playing his best until he got the injury a few minutes before the match started and even that he decided to play knowing that he had the 99% to lose. And by the way every single player has to make the effort to hang in the finals, EVERYONE without any exception. At RG he beat the guy who was winning that year everything on clay but first at all he is not any 'monster' on clay and Stand of course gave us the proof but I have to recognize that both players played their best. USO? Nishi. Delpo? both players playing their worst because their injuries? and according to Novak's fans (and not so fans) this last one had problems in his wrist, elbow and shoulder though I think his real injury came from his head which as we have seen before is more difficult to take care than the body.
And leave the Rafa's fans alone because this topic is nothing to do with "fans" but what I'm thinking about Wawrinka and his GS results, he played really well in the perfect place and time, that's all

 

[DarthFed]

You're quoting me, but I hope you're not putting those words in my mouth. "Rafa fans" think this and that, etc. Look, I was addressing Carol's point about fluking out 3 Majors. My actual point, not the old debate, was that, if Stan had never won another Major, only just the one where, yes, he came hot out of the blocks, but Nadal came up lame 2-3 games into the 2nd set. There was a long way to go in that match, and, had he never backed it up, we might have suspected it was a bit of a fluke, like Gaudio was, and I think Cilic will be. Based on the otherwise unreliability of Stan's approach to most other types of tournaments, any reasonable fan would think he'd lucked into a bit. Having backed it up, however, we now know that he really does have the stuff to beat anyone, on the given day...and across 7 matches.

I replied to your post because I've seen you mention before that Stan's slam wins were opportunistic or something to that effect. I've also seen you say Roger was similarly opportunistic at this year's AO which I found even more laughable. Stan's first 2 slams and Roger's win at AO are about the 3 most difficult slam runs I can remember seeing.

I'm not out to target you or Rafa fans but I think you'd agree that Stan doesn't get too much affection from you guys mostly because of the AO 14 final. None of us are above having sour grapes once in awhile. Rafa's fed me dozens over the years.

 

[Carol]

I replied to your post because I've seen you mention before that Stan's slam wins were opportunistic or something to that effect. I've also seen you say Roger was similarly opportunistic at this year's AO which I found even more laughable. Stan's first 2 slams and Roger's win at AO are about the 3 most difficult slam runs I can remember seeing.

I'm not out to target you or Rafa fans but I think you'd agree that Stan doesn't get too much affection from you guys mostly because of the AO 14 final. None of us are above having sour grapes once in awhile. Rafa's fed me dozens over the years.

Wrong, I've always had certain sympathy for Stan maybe because he always has been 'the second Swiss' like you probably has had for Ferru. Like I said before I give him a lot of credit to take his best opportunities, hats off

 

[Moxie]

I replied to your post because I've seen you mention before that Stan's slam wins were opportunistic or something to that effect. I've also seen you say Roger was similarly opportunistic at this year's AO which I found even more laughable. Stan's first 2 slams and Roger's win at AO are about the 3 most difficult slam runs I can remember seeing.

I'm not out to target you or Rafa fans but I think you'd agree that Stan doesn't get too much affection from you guys mostly because of the AO 14 final. None of us are above having sour grapes once in awhile. Rafa's fed me dozens over the years.

I don't remember even thinking that this year's AO was opportunistic by Roger, but let me say this: When I say that someone was "opportunistic," I personally think of that as a compliment in most cases. If anything, I think Roger and Rafa were both opportunistic at the AO, in that they saw 1 & 2 out, and who steps up? The old champs. I've said before that I think Nadal saw an opening even before the start of the 2010 USO, with Delpo not defending, and Roger, Novak and Andy all looking a bit wobbly earlier in the summer. I believe he targeted that USO, thinking he might not get a better window. I do think that the great champs take their opportunities when they present themselves, and don't usually need to be asked twice.

A lot of people don't like Stan much, starting with him dumping his wife & baby. I know that's a weird reason, but it can't always be helped. Also, for his unreliability. (Same way I can't love Dimitrov, or have a love-hate with Fabio.) Though I am grateful to Stan for those wins over Novak at Majors.

 

[DarthFed]

What is ridiculous is to think that Novak was unbeatable, he was, he is and he will like EVERY single player. And talking about Wawrinka again....IMO he deserved to win those three GS but not with all the honors. Fist at all talking about the AO he beat Novak, yes, but Nadal at that time was playing his best until he got the injury a few minutes before the match started and even that he decided to play knowing that he had the 99% to lose. And by the way every single player has to make the effort to hang in the finals, EVERYONE without any exception. At RG he beat the guy who was winning that year everything on clay but first at all he is not any 'monster' on clay and Stand of course gave us the proof but I have to recognize that both players played their best. USO? Nishi. Delpo? both players playing their worst because their injuries? and according to Novak's fans (and not so fans) this last one had problems in his wrist, elbow and shoulder though I think his real injury came from his head which as we have seen before is more difficult to take care than the body.
And leave the Rafa's fans alone because this topic is nothing to do with "fans" but what I'm thinking about Wawrinka and his GS results, he played really well in the perfect place and time, that's all

No one is unbeatable, where did anyone say that? Novak at AO was close to unbeatable back then, he is the best player ever at that tournament for a reason. He won it 5 out of 6 years and usually dusted everyone pretty easily. Rafa may have felt something in his back before the match but even he said it was not affecting him until it gave out when he was down a set and a break. I'm sorry but if Stan can beat Novak at AO it's a little out there to think he would need a ton of luck to beat Rafa. Hey, who knows, Rafa may have come back and won that match but he very well, if not likely, could've lost without the back injury.

And I'd say Novak has been a monster on clay for awhile, he just has 1 RG to show for it but since 2011 he has beaten Rafa more times on clay than Rafa has beaten him and in 2015 he barely lost at all that year. It was a tremendous effort by Stan to win that match, no luck or opportunistic play involved. And DP was not injured at USO this past year. He came in pretty hot and got to the QF's pretty easily, Stan just beat him. Same with Nishi, he wasn't injured but maybe a bit gassed from a 5 setter with Murray. Novak was not 100% but he was close enough to make the finals fairly easily.

 

[DarthFed]

Wrong, I've always had certain sympathy for Stan maybe because he always has been 'the second Swiss' like you probably has had for Ferru. Like I said before I give him a lot of credit to take his best opportunities, hats off

Lol, ask Moxie how much I have sympathy for Ferru.

 

[Carol]

No one is unbeatable, where did anyone say that? Novak at AO was close to unbeatable back then, he is the best player ever at that tournament for a reason. He won it 5 out of 6 years and usually dusted everyone pretty easily. Rafa may have felt something in his back before the match but even he said it was not affecting him until it gave out when he was down a set and a break. I'm sorry but if Stan can beat Novak at AO it's a little out there to think he would need a ton of luck to beat Rafa. Hey, who knows, Rafa may have come back and won that match but he very well, if not likely, could've lost without the back injury.

And I'd say Novak has been a monster on clay for awhile, he just has 1 RG to show for it but since 2011 he has beaten Rafa more times on clay than Rafa has beaten him and in 2015 he barely lost at all that year. It was a tremendous effort by Stan to win that match, no luck or opportunistic play involved. And DP was not injured at USO this past year. He came in pretty hot and got to the QF's pretty easily, Stan just beat him. Same with Nishi, he wasn't injured but maybe a bit gassed from a 5 setter with Murray. Novak was not 100% but he was close enough to make the finals fairly easily.

Nishi and Delpo didn't have injuries at that time but both came back from. Novak has beaten Rafa on clay when this one was going through his worse time of his career and he was beaten not just by Novak but also by others players. Novak had the easier way to reach the USO finals and without too much effort because most of his opponents just withdrew lol

 

[DarthFed]

Novak was 2-0 vs. Rafa on clay in 2011, 0-3 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013, 1-1 in 2014, 2-0 in 2015 and 1-0 in 2016. Not all of those came in the worst time of Nad's career.

 

[Moxie]

Roger would probably have to make the final of Rome to even have a chance to keep the #4 ranking. I don't see it happening even if he plays which is doubtful. And I don't think Roger has to worry about seeing Murray at any point in any tournament, he doesn't cause much worry though I guess from a cumulative perspective it could suck to play him in the QF's. I think you are underestimating what's happened with Djokovic. His game is in the crapper and it isn't getting out of there right away, he's not going from a guy who looks like a barely top 15-20 player to playing like the #1 again overnight. That's not how it works. I say he has less than a 50% chance to even make the QF's at RG at this point and I'm not kidding.

Stan has been himself this year, he did decent at AO and IW and has had a few bad results sprinkled in. As you say he could make a big run at RG out of nowhere. That's his norm now.

I wouldn't say I have any confidence that Roger would take Nadal at RG, but given 4 straight wins including 3 big ones this year, the last on a very slow HC, I'd say Roger figures to be his biggest threat unless Djokovic comes to form very quickly. Rafa beat Fed at Wimbledon even though on paper he should lose 10 of 10, and the biggest factor was the confidence from beatdowns on clay and Fed's low confidence from the beatdowns that made it possible. I'm not saying the same happens at RG but suddenly Fed might be in Rafa's head a bit.

I agree that Roger will have a psychological advantage based on recent history, and Rafa's more susceptible to that than he used to be.

I'm not sure I'm underestimating what's happening to Novak as much as shocked and a bit mystified. I will say that I don't think he (or Andy) are going to get their confidence back right away. I'm not sure that we have precedent for a player who was looking like Novak 15 months ago, to what he looks like right now. That's a huge shift in fortunes, and I don't know how long or what it takes to pull things back to some semblance of his #1 form.

 

[Moxie]

Lol, ask Moxie how much I have sympathy for Ferru.

I honestly did a spit-take when I saw that Carol had written that, and I thought she must have meant it ironically, but in any case, you both made me laugh.

 

[DarthFed]

I agree that Roger will have a psychological advantage based on recent history, and Rafa's more susceptible to that than he used to be.

I'm not sure I'm underestimating what's happening to Novak as much as shocked and a bit mystified. I will say that I don't think he (or Andy) are going to get their confidence back right away. I'm not sure that we have precedent for a player who was looking like Novak 15 months ago, to what he looks like right now. That's a huge shift in fortunes, and I don't know how long or what it takes to pull things back to some semblance of his #1 form.

You are right that there isn't much precedent for Nole's situation, going from hugely dominant #1 to barely being able to win a few matches in a row at this point. With that said I do see this as being somewhat similar to Roger's 2013 and Rafa's 2015/2016. In those years Roger and Rafa eventually piled up enough bad results that you could tell they weren't going to turn it around during those seasons. But in Roger's case we saw some noted improvement that Fall season and then the offseason came and he was pretty sharp early on in 2014. Rafa didn't show much improvement aside from his clay season last year before the injury at RG. But again retooling and resetting during the offseason seems to have done him a lot of good. I expect we will see some improvement from Nole before the end of this year (not going out on a limb at all given where he's at) but the earliest he may make some noise is USO, IMO. It's going to take him time to start playing decent again.

 

[Carol]

[

I honestly did a spit-take when I saw that Carol had written that, and I thought she must have meant it ironically, but in any case, you both made me laugh.

 

[Moxie]

You are right that there isn't much precedent for Nole's situation, going from hugely dominant #1 to barely being able to win a few matches in a row at this point. With that said I do see this as being somewhat similar to Roger's 2013 and Rafa's 2015/2016. In those years Roger and Rafa eventually piled up enough bad results that you could tell they weren't going to turn it around during those seasons. But in Roger's case we saw some noted improvement that Fall season and then the offseason came and he was pretty sharp early on in 2014. Rafa didn't show much improvement aside from his clay season last year before the injury at RG. But again retooling and resetting during the offseason seems to have done him a lot of good. I expect we will see some improvement from Nole before the end of this year (not going out on a limb at all given where he's at) but the earliest he may make some noise is USO, IMO. It's going to take him time to start playing decent again.

You make a decent case, there. I guess we'll see.

 

[Carol]

Do you remember the exhibition of 'the battle of the surfaces'? 10 years ego, the time flies!