Final Slam Counts - Update, end of 2018

[Jelenafan]

If all remain healthy:

Federer 20
Nadal 20
Djokovic 20

 

[Mastoor]

Well, I couldn't unbold the letters.

As for the original question, it makes no sense. The reason is that we can't predict at which point the cats pajamas will be injured and out of competition, during which time his two rivals will use the opportunity to build up their slam counts like they did in last 2 years. For example, there was nothing to suggest in mid 2016 that there was anything to stop Nole of winning slams over and over again.

The other thing we can't predict is for what period of time will he be out of form once he gets injured. I guess he won't waste too much time on holistic approach next time, but will go to surgery sooner, so there won't be a new 2 year drought period again.

 

[lob]

Your historical age projections are badly out of date. The way it's going 35 is the new 27. 27-28 was your point of last grand slam with another one a distant possibility. So you need to rerun your numbers now by replacing 27 with 35. Sampras won three slams after 27 so Roger wins three after 35. Lendl won two after 27 so Djokovic wins at least two after 35. So it goes.

Yes, I am aware of that fact.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

 

[El Dude]

@Mastoor, its called playing make-believe. It isn't supposed to make sense - just have fun with it. I made that quite clear in the OP.

@lob, I hear you and am not going on the "old rules" of 27-28 being turning the corner towards decline, but I think you are over-compensating by shifting to 35....that’s eight years! Maybe it is more like four? Maybe players reach the turning point around 31-32, then have a few more years at a high plateau level until they decline rapidly after 35? (Wherein the past, rapid decline was around 31-32).

Certainly we can say that players are aging better - it isn't just Roger, but Stan, Rafa, and now Novak. But what we can't say is to what degree. Only Roger is over 35 and has had that kind of success. And all of his peers are gone...even Ferrer is basically done.Maybe Roger’s a freak. Maybe Rafa and Novak are freaks as well.

And the other factor: Next Gen is better than Lost Gen. That seems clear at this point. And Next Gen is going to get better. By the time Rafa and Novak turn 35 (2021-22), Next Gen will be peaking. I'm thinking that a 22 year old Denis Shapovalov will be something fearsome to behold (for example).

 

[Nadalfan2013]

If all remain healthy:

Federer 20
Nadal 20
Djokovic 20

And what about Murray? B-)

 

[El Dude]

And what about Murray? B-)

21.