Fed's Slam Window Shut

[lacatch]

I love and admire all that Roger has achieved, and watching him play when he is on is simply magnificent---making shots that frankly no one else on tour does. BUT (you knew that was coming lol), I don't see how he can bag another major now that the front door has been busted open. Not only does he have to worry about the rest of the "Big Four" (RIP), but the up-and-comers have shown they are ready to seize the day. Frankly, I think between Australia and Wimbledon and now the US OPEN, too many players believe they can grab the brass ring, and I firmly believe that the days of one player cleaning up (slam-wise) in a single year are over for now. While a tad wistful, I'm more excited about what's to come next year!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed will not win another AO or FO or USO. But, I do think he still has some chance of
getting another Wimbledon.

 

[DarthFed]

I still think he will have at least one good run left at the USO (at least the final). He is still dangerous on fast hard courts, just didn't quite get it done in 2012 or 2014 (was never going to do well at USO last year).

And clearly he can still win Wimbledon. Nole morphing into 2011 form is the only thing that stopped him there this year. I think he will still get #18. Motivation is a powerful weapon and his will grow every time Rafa wins another slam.

But it is getting more and more clear that every set matters at this point. At his age there is a difference between a 3 set win and a 4 set win and a huge difference between 3/4 sets and 5. He advances in the tourney with every win but his chances go down if he is stretched. Naturally the recovery time is not what it was. At Wimbledon this year the only match he was pushed at all was a 4 set QF with Stan and the result was that Roger held up well until the very end of the final.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Whatever slam Roger might win, it will be in 2015. No later.

And I am not writing him off for any tournament. Look at the final we are having at the Open tomorrow. Anyone guessed? Nope. Because things are a bit unpredictable these days. That can help Roger.
I am not even writing him of for RG. Why not? Because let's assume he manages to pass Rafa in the rankings and has the #2 ranking and the seed. You know where I am going with this...He is still top 5 on clay. Draws open up, he can take advantage...Same with AO. That tournament is Nole territory but can we confidently say Nole is going to be there %100 mentally and physically with the going ons in his life? Can we say Stan is going to bring it again for sure? I can't. Wimbledon is always the best bet where regardless of the draw he might have most matches on his racket, and USO is the second best bet.

Having said all that, I am not EXPECTING for him to win anything...and frankly , I am not on the camp that believes he HAS to. He has had an amazing career, second to none, so it is all gravy for me. I am just saying the way couple of the slams worked out this year, anything is possible.

 

[crystalfire]

i think he def has the chance to win either a AO USO or wimby next year. after that its iffy at best. at this point im gonna say his chances are greater as long as he doesnt have to play any big hitters and rafa. I think fed on a good day has great chance to beat muray or djoker if they were to meet. however if he were to play both back to back i doubt his chances.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I still think he will have at least one good run left at the USO (at least the final). He is still dangerous on fast hard courts, just didn't quite get it done in 2012 or 2014 (was never going to do well at USO last year).

And clearly he can still win Wimbledon. Nole morphing into 2011 form is the only thing that stopped him there this year. I think he will still get #18. Motivation is a powerful weapon and his will grow every time Rafa wins another slam.

But it is getting more and more clear that every set matters at this point. At his age there is a difference between a 3 set win and a 4 set win and a huge difference between 3/4 sets and 5. He advances in the tourney with every win but his chances go down if he is stretched. Naturally the recovery time is not what it was. At Wimbledon this year the only match he was pushed at all was a 4 set QF with Stan and the result was that Roger held up well until the very end of the final.

Yes, it does matter. However, don't kid yourself. Fed is not going to reach the final
without losing a set or two along the way. Nothing can be done about it. His team has
to just come up with more innovative ways to recover (no, not egg).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Whatever slam Roger might win, it will be in 2015. No later.

And I am not writing him off for any tournament. Look at the final we are having at the Open tomorrow. Anyone guessed? Nope. Because things are a bit unpredictable these days. That can help Roger.
I am not even writing him of for RG. Why not? Because let's assume he manages to pass Rafa in the rankings and has the #2 ranking and the seed. You know where I am going with this...He is still top 5 on clay. Draws open up, he can take advantage...Same with AO. That tournament is Nole territory but can we confidently say Nole is going to be there %100 mentally and physically with the going ons in his life? Can we say Stan is going to bring it again for sure? I can't. Wimbledon is always the best bet where regardless of the draw he might have most matches on his racket, and USO is the second best bet.

Having said all that, I am not EXPECTING for him to win anything...and frankly , I am not on the camp that believes he HAS to. He has had an amazing career, second to none, so it is all gravy for me. I am just saying the way couple of the slams worked out this year, anything is possible.

Yes, that would be really fun, Roger winning RG at this stage.

Moreover, it would give him the coveted double career grand slam too.

I agree it could happen, but chances are very small.

 

[DarthFed]

I still think he will have at least one good run left at the USO (at least the final). He is still dangerous on fast hard courts, just didn't quite get it done in 2012 or 2014 (was never going to do well at USO last year).

And clearly he can still win Wimbledon. Nole morphing into 2011 form is the only thing that stopped him there this year. I think he will still get #18. Motivation is a powerful weapon and his will grow every time Rafa wins another slam.

But it is getting more and more clear that every set matters at this point. At his age there is a difference between a 3 set win and a 4 set win and a huge difference between 3/4 sets and 5. He advances in the tourney with every win but his chances go down if he is stretched. Naturally the recovery time is not what it was. At Wimbledon this year the only match he was pushed at all was a 4 set QF with Stan and the result was that Roger held up well until the very end of the final.

Yes, it does matter. However, don't kid yourself. Fed is not going to reach the final
without losing a set or two along the way. Nothing can be done about it. His team has
to just come up with more innovative ways to recover (no, not egg).

Yeah it is very unlikely he gets through without losing a set, mainly he needs to avoid the 5 setters or the long, tough 4 set matches. Matches are always quicker on grass too so it applies more to the other slams but is a factor everywhere I'd say.

 

[Moxie]

With Nadal and Murray as question marks and Djokovic at least distracted, there is still some opportunity. But everyone was saying a year ago, even: "if the draw is kind," and "if he gets some help from big 4 players going out." Well, he had both of those circumstances at Wimbledon and the USO this year. I've held Roger in high opinion for his opportunism, but he couldn't capitalize on his good fortune in either case this year. Even if he gets lucky next year, he still has to make the best of his luck. We'll see if he still can. My guess would be Wimbledon, or the AO, if the other top 4 are still discombobulated.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think the draw matters too much at Wimbledon. All things considered he didn't really have it easy there this year when you factor in that Nadal has barely been seen on the Wimbledon grounds in 3 years. Has he even played? Blink and you might miss his stay The USO was a huge missed opportunity, but it doesn't mean he can't play there anymore, he just didn't do well this time.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal is no longer the only factor that keeps Fed out of the finals at Wimbledon. If he's ranked 3 or lower, he could get Djokovic before a final. And, while he's still about the best there is on grass, there will be more land-mines out there for him, as the youngsters increasingly feel their oats and feature.

And I agree about the USO...who could have beaten Cilic on that day? Same circumstances next year, and he could be into the finals...and if you're in the finals you can win. Same with Wimbledon. But I do think that Roger is increasingly a hostage to fortune, rather than having it on his racquet, as of old.

 

[DarthFed]

Well decent chance Roger is ranked #2 at Wimbledon next year and regardless I doubt he is scared of Djokovic on grass. Nole won't always play like that, in fact he hasn't in the past 3 years.

 

[Moxie]

Well decent chance Roger is ranked #2 at Wimbledon next year and regardless I doubt he is scared of Djokovic on grass. Nole won't always play like that, in fact he hasn't in the past 3 years.

I'd argue that Djokovic wasn't really good on grass until last year, when he played quite fine until he lost in the final. But the thing with him is that his game can transfer to all surfaces, because of his athleticism. If Roger gets to another final at Wimbledon, I'd give him a better than even shot. But it's getting there.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Wimbledon will be harder for Federer next year because there is an extra week between Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so Nadal/Djokovic will be better prepared.

But Federer still has shots at a slam, because you saw how close he was at Australia in particular.
Nadal was perhaps the only player in Federer's way in Australia (Wawrinka maybe, but he's a dicey 'elite') :idea:

I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal and Federer end up being in the final of a slam when Nadal is going for slam #17 or #18.
It would be the most watched event in individual sports history.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I still think Wimbledon is his best chance of getting number 18. However, like Moxie and the other posters said, he needs to have a good draw in order to even reach the final. In addition, he better hope he doesn't face a hot player or else it would be a long day for him.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Yeah Wimbledon suits Federer best, and yet its probably the surface which can include upsets most because if a player is on-fire they hit through the court for clean winners more on grass than other surfaces :snigger

 

[Federberg]

Never ceases to amuse me when we get these sort of opinions. Whether in the media or in forums. Of course it's tougher now. That's as it should be. But a guy who puts himself in the mix always has a chance. Do people understand the uncertainties of sport or not!? When Sampras won his last slam he was no where near as competitive as Roger still is. The lesson we should all take from Flushing this year, is that it's going to be tougher for ALL of the Big 3, including Rafa and Nole. The tennis that Cilic played would probably have beaten anyone. It was powerful from the baseline with big accurate serving. It's lazy thinking in my view. I'm just going to enjoy the entertainment. Some have commented on how this has been a lame tournament. I beg to differ! I haven't been as excited about mens tennis in a long long time. We're entering into an era of normalcy and super competitive tennis, if you like the sport and aren't just a fanboy, how can you not like this?

 

[Kieran]

Roger has defied gravity for so long, it seems that nature has been stalled. We've gotten used to him at the very top of the sport setting unprecedented records, that it becomes unthinkable that he might not have any more majors in him. But he had a great year this year - for a 33 year old. By his own standards, in his prime, he's fallen off - this is the natural course. I think things lined up neatly for him at Flushing Meadows, but as Cilic said in his presser, and Federberg above, the rest of the field have grown smarter and they don't respect so much any more.

Will he win another major? I doubt it, since there's another four or five months til the next one, and then the same gap until the French. in other words, these months mean more when you're 33 than when you're 23. But he'll continue to excel, and really, when you think about it, look at the summer he's had: Wimbledon final, then he played 10 matches in 13 days in the summer hards, and now a USO semi. That's fairly extraordinary given the mileage he has...

 

[herios]

Roger has defied gravity for so long, it seems that nature has been stalled. We've gotten used to him at the very top of the sport setting unprecedented records, that it becomes unthinkable that he might not have any more majors in him. But he had a great year this year - for a 33 year old. By his own standards, in his prime, he's fallen off - this is the natural course. I think things lined up neatly for him at Flushing Meadows, but as Cilic said in his presser, and Federberg above, the rest of the field have grown smarter and they don't respect so much any more.

Will he win another major? I doubt it, since there's another four or five months til the next one, and then the same gap until the French. in other words, these months mean more when you're 33 than when you're 23. But he'll continue to excel, and really, when you think about it, look at the summer he's had: Wimbledon final, then he played 10 matches in 13 days in the summer hards, and now a USO semi. That's fairly extraordinary given the mileage he has...

I agree with both Kieran and Federberg above. For fans is getting very hard to let go the thought that Federer has one more chance at minimum for a slam. It is almost a miracle he lasted at the top this long. Once again, slams are an exception to be won over 30, not the norm.
I would say just enjoy watching him and be happy because he has another milestone very doable this year, the DC title. He has a chance to add that to his museum collection and after that the hell with it, what happens happens, as Murat said.

 

[herios]

I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal and Federer end up being in the final of a slam when Nadal is going for slam #17 or #18.
It would be the most watched event in individual sports history.

Buddy, I don't mean to burst your bubble, but Rafa's window will get shut also a lot sooner than you expect. By the time Rafa reaches 17 , if ever, Federer will be walking his boys to the kindergarten.