OK, Now with Brisbane points coming off, Roger would be ranked 17th in the coming Monday's ranking charts and so will also be seeded 17th at AO unless someone above him withdraws from AO (which probably won't happen as everybody seems fit and fiddle at the moment). I don't know La Monf's status. Also, Nick has some injuries, but most probably he will be healed in time.
With SF points to defend at AO, I expect Roger to either maintain his ranking or take a backward step by 3 or 4 spots at the end of AO.
After AO, he has not played anything until the start of clay season. So, I expect Roger to get into top 12 by the end of first quarter (due to points added from Dubai, IW and M). That would make sure that he does not face the top 4 players before quarterfinals.
He has just 270 points to defend in the clay season. But, he will play a "light schedule" on clay this year, if at all he plays. So, I expect him to just get into top 8 by the end of clay season.
A spirited performance in the grass warm ups and the bonus grass formula points should make a top 4 seed in Wimbledon. In conclusion, Fed's goal should be to make sure that he gets seeded in top four at Wimbledon. I think that is a very realistic progress chart and an achievable goal.
lot
If he wins Wimbledon, he may even make it into top two; But, let me not get too ahead of myself. :nono