In a presser in Rotterdam, Fed has said that he is
considering playing on clay this year. As expected, he has clearly said, even if he plays it will be a light schedule on clay.
I would say that if Fed skips Miami, he will definitely be playing in clay. If he does not skip, it is hard to predict.
Of course, if #1 does not happen in Rotterdam, he will definitely play in Dubai and IW. In that case, he will be forced to skip Miami as he won't be feeling up to it. In that case, play on clay seems almost sure to happen.
If #1 happens in Rotterdam, it looks highly likely that he will skip Dubai and play both IW and M.
In that case, clay will be 50/50 proposition.
To summarize, here are my estimation of Fed's chances of playing some clay based on
his pre-clay hard court season play. First column lists the tourneys that he plays before the
clay season and the second column gives the chances of he playing some clay.
1. Rotterdam, Dubai, IW, Miami. ----------------- 0% chance of playing in clay
2. Rotterdam, Dubai, IW ---------------- 75% chance.
3. Rotterdam, IW and M ---------------- 50% chance.
4. Rotterdam and IW only ---------------- 100% chance.