Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?

[brokenshoelace]

Federer's tennis obituary as a top player being written way too early IMO.... again.

This.

Rating Ferrer over him at this point is... well, as awkwardly inaccurate as referring to David as "the Spanish number 1."

 

[Didi]

On a sidenote, if Nadal wins Madrid, he will be less than 900 points behind Federer in the rankings. I mean this is kind of mind-boggling given that he skipped the entire 2nd half of the 2012 season + this year's Australian Open. He won't be able to overtake him during the clay season though since he has to defend Rome and Paris but once the clay season is over it's just a matter of time given that Roger has to defend 4.500+ points before the start of the US Open. More than any other player.

 

[Mastoor]

We will never know with him, at any time Fed can suddenly get motivated and start playing his best.

 

[herios]

Federer's tennis obituary as a top player being written way too early IMO.... again.

This.

Rating Ferrer over him at this point is... well, as awkwardly inaccurate as referring to David as "the Spanish number 1."

No, this is not an obituary, only specualtion. And speculation can start anytime.
Also, it is not abot rating in relation to Ferrer, rather talking ranking. And last I knew one if the biggest components of what your ranking is your "consistency" across the full year.
Roger is less consistent this year and that might result in a lower ranking therefore.
But slams will give us the entire picture soon.

 

[El Dude]

I'm not ready to write his obituary, but since Wimbledon of last year he's been more equal to the Tsongas, Berdychs, and Del Potros of the world - that's what the record shows. Ferrer belongs with that group because of his incredible consistency and the amount of tournaments he plays; he's not capable of the same level of play as any of them, and talent-wise is more of a #8-12 type player. I think his ranking is largely due to the fact that his "performance floor" is still quite high.

I really hope that Federer pulls himself out of it, but we've seen a couple drops. He was playing at a very high level from around Paris in 2011 to Wimbledon in 2012 - an elite, #1 level. Then from the Olympics and US Open through about the WTF, he was a notch down but still easily in the Big Four. But for all of 2013 he's been a further step down and playing more similar in level to the second tier of players, the near-elites (Tsonga, Berdych, etc). So the trajectory is not good and shows continued decline since Wimbledon - that's not just a month or two but the better part of a year.

My hope is that we're seeing is just a down cycle, and that he'll play better through the summer and fall - and that this is just his aging pattern, ups and downs, and that he'll be able to be a contender for the next year or three. But again, the vast majority of players make a major dip at this point in their careers, and it is only the rare Tommy Haas and Andre Agassi types that have a resurgence. I think Federer is capable of this, but he needs to work through it and not get discouraged. But even so, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the #5-10 range for the next year or two before retiring sometime in 2015 or 2016.

 

[isabelle]

Between 5 and 10 could be his real ranking