Early Wimbledon Talk

[Haelfix]

Federer played well, but I do think he's vulnerable on grass, and has been for a very long time. It's hard to describe but Zverev definitely was moving better, and there is an advantage of being young on grass. It's the suddenness and ability to accelerate that matters more so than raw speed.

Federer still has the wonderful shot making, variety and serve but he's been exposed at times by superior energy and movement.

I also think his forehand power is a problem, and in baseline wars he can be had if you can just hold out for a little while.

So he's the favorite, but It's not a super big disparity like he used to be or how Rafa is on clay or how Novak was on slow hards.
And yes, someone like Zverev can definitely win.

 

[Moxie]

One place where I think age is a factor and Roger is vulnerable is that you don't necessarily feel it every day, compared to when you were younger. Roger said he woke up today and felt especially good and ready for the final v. Zverev. Which is great, except for the days when he doesn't feel it, and when/where they come. I thought an example of this was at the 2015 SF at Wimbledon, when Roger was fully peak v. Murray, played the best match of his grass season, and then didn't have that level at all for the final. That's age. It's not that you can't have peak days, it's that you control less when they come.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The qualifying draw is out . Here are some interesting names. The oldies Sanitago Giraldo, P.H.M., Groth, Ram, Daniel Brands, Jurgen Melzer and his brother G. Melzer, the upsetters Rosol and Stakhovsky, the youngsters Fritz, Opelka, Rublev, Bjorn and the british chap Dan Cox (remember him).

 

[Moxie]

Thanks, GSM. I'm posting it here:

 

[Moxie]

Some next Gen guys in there: Taylor Fritz, Andrey Rublev, Reilly Opelka. And I always like to mention the elaborately named Iñigo Cervantes.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

It should be clear to all folks that Roger has more than made up for his limitations of old age. He has tactics, variety and still hits the ball flatter and harder than most players. As much is required for shotmaking, he has that much strength. He still moves well enough to execute a very aggressive game. While his movement is not at his peak, his stroke play is. He is playing flatter than ever. One should not blatantly read into the dip in his athleticism or movement. And by the way, he can still show energy and movement if needed. We saw that in the AO final. Personally, I feel Roger is much less vulnerable this year than he was in 2014-2016. At least, now Roger knows what is A-game is at this point against his opponents. He is executing it with perfection. He makes every match a first-strike contest. And he is favourite to win these contests. Unless, you outdo him in offensive play and go for winners before he does you are toast against this version of Roger. Yes, old age brings uncertainties. And that's the only thing in favour of a player who is not offensive against Roger on grass this year.

 

[Moxie]

He's shown he has all the tools in the tool shed and remembers how to use them. The question is if he can keep the intensity up for the fortnight, and bring it at the right moments. The eight ball says that chances are good. But does lightning suddenly strike twice in a year after nearly 5 fallow ones? You'd have to be Roger Federer to believe that possible.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

He's shown he has all the tools in the tool shed and remembers how to use them. The question is if he can keep the intensity up for the fortnight, and bring it at the right moments. The eight ball says that chances are good. But does lightning suddenly strike twice in a year after nearly 5 fallow ones? You'd have to be Roger Federer to believe that possible.

Nicely written. You nicely pointed out the admirable faith that Roger has. I would like to point out one thing that we are forgetting. You don't have to play your peak tennis for 21 sets. Unless you get a draw full of floaters, the first 4 rounds are easy for Roger. The game starts from the QF. And Roger looks ready to be able to deliver a masterclass against someone like Raonic or Cilic in that round who are the only possible challengers for that round. I would have to look at the Wimbledon seedings to know better. Novak, Murray look out of sorts. Nadal is a question mark. We will have to see how it will be.

One thing is clear. Zverev, at the moment, still has an incomplete game. Unless someone takes Roger out, he doesn't have a chance.

 

[El Dude]

Federer played well, but I do think he's vulnerable on grass, and has been for a very long time. It's hard to describe but Zverev definitely was moving better, and there is an advantage of being young on grass. It's the suddenness and ability to accelerate that matters more so than raw speed.

Federer still has the wonderful shot making, variety and serve but he's been exposed at times by superior energy and movement.

I also think his forehand power is a problem, and in baseline wars he can be had if you can just hold out for a little while.

So he's the favorite, but It's not a super big disparity like he used to be or how Rafa is on clay or how Novak was on slow hards.
And yes, someone like Zverev can definitely win.

Well said. I think also what @Moxie said about age, that you can't bring it every single day and sometimes you just wake up and don't feel it. This might also be the difference between 30-31 and ~35, though.

As for Zverev, he just seem out-played and out-smarted. It was the classic case of young stud shows up and tries to slam his way to a victory, but has no answers for the more nuanced approach of an older master. He also didn't seem able to handle his own frustration, which worsened his play. I think part of greatness is being able to play the next point and act like the last one didn't happen.

Now if Zverev is able to A) modulate his own emotions better and B) respond to Roger's diverse arsenal or at least anticipate him better, his youth, energy and power could rule the day. In a similar sense that like Thiem's chances better next year at RG after another year of growth and another year of aging for Rafa, so too might another year of seasoning bring Zverev into a more favorable position vs. Roger.

 

[Ricardo]

Nicely written. You nicely pointed out the admirable faith that Roger has. I would like to point out one thing that we are forgetting. You don't have to play your peak tennis for 21 sets. Unless you get a draw full of floaters, the first 4 rounds are easy for Roger. The game starts from the QF. And Roger looks ready to be able to deliver a masterclass against someone like Raonic or Cilic in that round who are the only possible challengers for that round. I would have to look at the Wimbledon seedings to know better. Novak, Murray look out of sorts. Nadal is a question mark. We will have to see how it will be.

One thing is clear. Zverev, at the moment, still has an incomplete game. Unless someone takes Roger out, he doesn't have a chance.

too black and white.......Zverev has a pretty complete game for a modern player, great offence and defence from the baseline but not much of net rusher. Despite what happened today, he has good chance against Roger, who clearly played unreal today even by his standard. The next time they meet (or like last year), you can bet he wouldn't play the same level.

Also the earlier rounds on grass are always more unpredictable than say on hard or clay, top seeds tumble on grass more often than not.....it's never right to say first 4 rounds are easy, for anyone.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

too black and white.......Zverev has a pretty complete game for a modern player, great offence and defence from the baseline but not much of net rusher. Despite what happened today, he has good chance against Roger, who clearly played unreal today even by his standard. The next time they meet (or like last year), you can bet he wouldn't play the same level.

Also the earlier rounds on grass are always more unpredictable than say on hard or clay, top seeds tumble on grass more often than not.....it's never right to say first 4 rounds are easy, for anyone.

Roger will deliver against Zverev shall they meet. I believe. And don't you think this loss will affect his confidence a bit. But, leaving the intangibles aside, Roger would still have the edge. This is not to say that Zverev has zero chance at Wimbly, he has. But it won't be easy.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

too black and white.......Zverev has a pretty complete game for a modern player, great offence and defence from the baseline but not much of net rusher. Despite what happened today, he has good chance against Roger, who clearly played unreal today even by his standard. The next time they meet (or like last year), you can bet he wouldn't play the same level.

Also the earlier rounds on grass are always more unpredictable than say on hard or clay, top seeds tumble on grass more often than not.....it's never right to say first 4 rounds are easy, for anyone.

I called Zverev's game incomplete because of his weak volley skills and net skills. I don't think he has world class defense skills either to be honest.

 

[Ricardo]

I called Zverev's game incomplete because of his weak volley skills and net skills. I don't think he has world class defense skills either to be honest.

by your definition Novak is incomplete as hell. In this era, a player is considered complete if his offence/defence combo at the baseline is good. Gone are the days when players had to have good net game to be 'complete'.....therefore Nadal, Novak, and Murray are all complete, though they rarely win points at the net.

Sasha's defensive skill is very good. He can never move like Nadal, given his height, but for someone 6"6', show me another guy who can defend better than him.

 

[El Dude]

The problem is that I think people subconsciously use Roger as the standard, which is of course absurd. We don't say players suck or even are incomplete at basketball because they aren't Michael Jordan. Roger is the gold standard for "complete player" - and there never really has been someone so complete in terms of everything they can do.

Zverev is a very good player who, in another year or two, could be a great one. Right now I see him about as good as Tsonga or Berdych at their best. In another year or two he could be del Potro in 2009. Two reasons why I think he'll win multiple Slams: One, he seems to have the mentality for it (assuming he can learn to moderate his frustration). Two, at just 20 he is still developing. Three, he'll be peaking sometime around five years from now, when Roger is 40, Rafa 36, Novak and Andy 35....and possibly all retired.

But the bottom line: Zverev doesn't have to be as good as Roger, Rafa and Novak to be great. Becker, Edberg, Agassi, Lendl, etc were all lesser players than those three and were all-time greats. Maybe we need to accept the possibility--likelihood, even--that no young player currently playing is going to be on that level. But that doesn't mean Zverev, as well as on or two others, can't become great. But we might have to wait years, decades even, before we see another player like the "Bigger Three" (although I not-so-secretly hold out hope in Aliassime...I think he's going to be really special).

 

[Carol]

Nadal will play the Exhibition on Wednesday vs Berdych and Friday vs T.Hass. It's going to be the best practice before Wimbledon

 

[Carol]

Talking about good volleys and even that at the present he has improved more and more. A picture (vid) worths more than a thousand words

 

[the AntiPusher]

Talking about good volleys and even that at the present he has improved more and more. A picture (vid) worths more than a thousand words

Thanks Carol..Rafa has improved so much more at the net since that match,

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In the first day of qualifying both upsetters Stakhovsky and Rosol advanced.

The #1 and #2 (Santiago) seeds in the qualifying draw were upset.

Opelka taken out by Rajeev Ram.

Daniel Cox, a british chap, who had lime light at a recent Wimbledon also lost in the first round.

 

[Carol]

The Hurlingham Club Exhibition, who will play and the schedule

http://www.hurlinghamtennisclassic.com/news-1/rafael-nadal-joins-line-up

 

[the AntiPusher]

Federer played well, but I do think he's vulnerable on grass, and has been for a very long time. It's hard to describe but Zverev definitely was moving better, and there is an advantage of being young on grass. It's the suddenness and ability to accelerate that matters more so than raw speed.

Federer still has the wonderful shot making, variety and serve but he's been exposed at times by superior energy and movement.

I also think his forehand power is a problem, and in baseline wars he can be had if you can just hold out for a little while.

So he's the favorite, but It's not a super big disparity like he used to be or how Rafa is on clay or how Novak was on slow hards.
And yes, someone like Zverev can definitely win.

You bring up a good point.. I am watching a replay on tennis channel Wimbledon 2012..Federer doesn't move like that anymore but not too far off..