Dubai Championship ATP 500

[brokenshoelace]

Roger would do well to leave the chip and charge bull$hit at home tomorrow.

what strategy do you recommend?

The way he always plays Djokovic, especially on faster hards. Federer's problem against Djokovic has never been strategy. But the one thing about his strategy he should absolutely ditch is the chip and charge, especially on big points. These guys don't miss passes. It doesn't help that Fed can't get his return low and deep enough to use the chip and charge tactic effectively. That strategy is dead in today's game and there's a good reason nobody uses it.

 

[bajana]

Roger would do well to leave the chip and charge bull$hit at home tomorrow.

My memory may be failing me, but isn't that largely how he won Shanghai?

 

[brokenshoelace]

Roger would do well to leave the chip and charge bull$hit at home tomorrow.

My memory may be failing me, but isn't that largely how he won Shanghai?

That's largely how he lost every point in which he chipped and charged in Shanghai. He barely won a single point off of chipping and charging.

Since there seems to be confusion: Chip and charge =/= attacking the net. Obviously Roger needs to come into the net when he has Novak on the rope. Chip and charge is when he just slices a return of serve back in play and follows it to the net, typically followed by a Djokovic passing shot winner.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Fast court so Roger definitely has a decent shot. For him it is serve well and dictate with the forehand, obviously he has to do both of those well. #7 for Roger or #5 for Nole at Dubai.

Roger's won their last two and three of their last four best-of-three match-ups, so I think he has more han a "decent shot." I'd say it is pretty even going in. Both are playing quite well.

Novak won their last two setter at the WTF final.

That match didn't take place.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger would do well to leave the chip and charge bull$hit at home tomorrow.

You think the old man can win from the baseline? :nono uzzled :angel: :cover

On a fast court he can, that's what won him Shanghai.

BS is right about the chip and charge. It is just not an effective tactic in today's game. With how well these guys pass today and how much pace and spin they can put on the ball it is just not a smart play. It's really about percentages, the 2nd serve return points won must be close to 50%, probably about 47 or 48 if I was going to guess. Now do we really think a player will win anywhere near 50% of points on the chip and charge? I've seen Roger do it enough to know he is not close to that number.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger would do well to leave the chip and charge bull$hit at home tomorrow.

You think the old man can win from the baseline? :nono uzzled :angel: :cover

On a fast court he can, that's what won him Shanghai.

BS is right about the chip and charge. It is just not an effective tactic in today's game. With how well these guys pass today and how much pace and spin they can put on the ball it is just not a smart play. It's really about percentages, the 2nd serve return points won must be close to 50%, probably about 47 or 48 if I was going to guess. Now do we really think a player will win anywhere near 50% of points on the chip and charge? I've seen Roger do it enough to know he is not close to that number.

It is not always about percentages as applied to a specific tactic. A particular tactic might
actually be not a winning proposition, for example it may even have a 40% success rate.
But, that does not mean that tactic needs to be shelved. While that tactic may appear to
be useless, it may actually help the player in the overall match. i.e., mixing things up
will pressure the opponent continuously and might help the player in unforeseen ways.
It is easy for one football team to defend the other one when they know that they will
always run as opposed to mixing up running, passing and trick plays etc. Same story
here. The particular tactic might win only 40% of time, but it might even get used
only 10% of the time. If it helps increasing the winning percentage of other tactics
which are used say 90% of time, by even 7%, the tactic is worth having it
[as 0.9*0.07 = 0.63 > 0.60 = 0.1 * 0.6].

What I am saying is, one needs to look at the bigger picture instead of merely
limiting attention to the success rate on a particular tactic. So, I would not recommend
leaving chip and charge altogether. But, limit the uses of it.

 

[brokenshoelace]

You think the old man can win from the baseline? :nono uzzled :angel: :cover

On a fast court he can, that's what won him Shanghai.

BS is right about the chip and charge. It is just not an effective tactic in today's game. With how well these guys pass today and how much pace and spin they can put on the ball it is just not a smart play. It's really about percentages, the 2nd serve return points won must be close to 50%, probably about 47 or 48 if I was going to guess. Now do we really think a player will win anywhere near 50% of points on the chip and charge? I've seen Roger do it enough to know he is not close to that number.

It is not always about percentages as applied to a specific tactic. A particular tactic might
actually be not a winning proposition, for example it may even have a 40% success rate.
But, that does not mean that tactic needs to be shelved. While that tactic may appear to
be useless, it may actually help the player in the overall match. i.e., mixing things up
will pressure the opponent continuously and might help the player in unforeseen ways.
It is easy for one football team to defend the other one when they know that they will
always run as opposed to mixing up running, passing and trick plays etc. Same story
here. The particular tactic might win only 40% of time, but it might even get used
only 10% of the time. If it helps increasing the winning percentage of other tactics
which are used say 90% of time, by even 7%, the tactic is worth having it
[as 0.9*0.07 = 0.63 > 0.60 = 0.1 * 0.6].

What I am saying is, one needs to look at the bigger picture instead of merely
limiting attention to the success rate on a particular tactic. So, I would not recommend
leaving chip and charge altogether. But, limit the uses of it.

I get what you're trying to say but the problem is, Djokovic will literally never miss the pass (and I do mean literally). If you watch their Shanghai match, the only successful chip and charge plays by Roger (and they couldn't have been more than 2) were a result of him A) guessing right B) reacting insanely quickly and C) coming up with an unbelievable get on the full stretch AND couple it with a delicate touch.

I get him trying to do it on say, a 15-15 all point or something, to keep Djokovic honest, and maybe catch him off guard and potentially draw an error by sneaking into the net. But doing it with any measure of frequency means Djokovic will always be ready for it, and he's not missing a pass off of either side. It would be slightly more doable if Federer's return wasn't so weak when he attempts to chip and charge, so you're giving Djokovic about the easiest shot he could have possibly had.

Yes, in theory, all Federer needs is a couple of successful chip and charge plays in key moments to possibly break, but when you look at every single chip and charge play he loses, especially those off of second serves, which he very well could have won had he adopted another tactic, I just can't see how it's a good idea.

I genuinely wouldn't do it more than a 2-3 times per set at most if I were Federer, and I'd never do it on break point.

 

[DarthFed]

You think the old man can win from the baseline? :nono uzzled :angel: :cover

On a fast court he can, that's what won him Shanghai.

BS is right about the chip and charge. It is just not an effective tactic in today's game. With how well these guys pass today and how much pace and spin they can put on the ball it is just not a smart play. It's really about percentages, the 2nd serve return points won must be close to 50%, probably about 47 or 48 if I was going to guess. Now do we really think a player will win anywhere near 50% of points on the chip and charge? I've seen Roger do it enough to know he is not close to that number.

It is not always about percentages as applied to a specific tactic. A particular tactic might
actually be not a winning proposition, for example it may even have a 40% success rate.
But, that does not mean that tactic needs to be shelved. While that tactic may appear to
be useless, it may actually help the player in the overall match. i.e., mixing things up
will pressure the opponent continuously and might help the player in unforeseen ways.
It is easy for one football team to defend the other one when they know that they will
always run as opposed to mixing up running, passing and trick plays etc. Same story
here. The particular tactic might win only 40% of time, but it might even get used
only 10% of the time. If it helps increasing the winning percentage of other tactics
which are used say 90% of time, by even 7%, the tactic is worth having it
[as 0.9*0.07 = 0.63 > 0.60 = 0.1 * 0.6].

What I am saying is, one needs to look at the bigger picture instead of merely
limiting attention to the success rate on a particular tactic. So, I would not recommend
leaving chip and charge altogether. But, limit the uses of it.

I know what you mean and it is good to mix things up, especially against Djokovic. The problem is I doubt Roger is even at 40% on that tactic especially against the top guys. I think it is still playable on grass but on hard courts and clay it is mostly just suicide.

 

[auto-pilot]

Federer doesn't have to do anything different to beat Djokovic.
Federer beat Djokovic 3 times last year, including twice in straight sets.
Djokovic whereas only beat Federer in a 3rd set tie-breaker and 6-4 in 5th set.
Djjokovic is at Federer's mercy.

 

[isabelle]

Federer doesn't have to do anything different to beat Djokovic.
Federer beat Djokovic 3 times last year, including twice in straight sets.
Djokovic whereas only beat Federer in a 3rd set tie-breaker and 6-4 in 5th set.
Djjokovic is at Federer's mercy.

Will Mr Vavrinec W/O like in Masters final ?? Nole'll prevail in 2 maybe 3 in Dubai

 

[Carol]

Even it's a 500, hope to see a better final than the last Wimbledon (and not calls to the trainer) and also better than the last "invisible" Master final :cover :huh: :snicker

 

[Front242]

Er, that last Wimbledon final was one of the best matches of the year for most people.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

 

[nehmeth]

Nice fh dtl from Fed to get it to deuce

:eyepop

Novak wins his serve with an overhead smash??

 

[nehmeth]

Bad line calls here again... :nono

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Roger having a bad forehand day so far...

 

[Front242]

Roger having a bad forehand day so far...

Yeah, far too many routine shots into the net. Big hold there though.

 

[Fiero425]

Roger having a bad forehand day so far...

Funny the commentators are talking about Roger attacking Nole's forehand! The same could happen to him with some balls flying off his rightwing! uzzled :nono :angel: Lucky to have held serve there!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

lively crowd.

 

[Front242]

Nice TMF return.