Dominance of the Big Four, revisited

[tented]

JMDP is the logical choice, but the logical often isn't the actual one to take the prize.

I'd love to say Grigor Dimitrov, but its hard imagining him beating one of the elites in a final. I'd really like to be able to say otherwise because I enjoy watching him play and have a preference for the smooth, graceful style, but I just don't see it...yet. I do think he'll start completing with the near-elites and end up vying for a spot in the top 10, either in 2014 or 2015, but he might not snag a big tournament for another 2-3 years.

I'm thinking Jerzy is the one to break through first and win a big tournament. He seems to have the necessary skills and fire, he just needs to get hot at the right time.

But it really could be another 3-4 years until that dominance is significantly broken up. Maybe two or three big tournaments are stolen away in the 2014-15 span, but I don't think it will be until 2016 or 2017 that we start seeing significant white on that chart above.

I, too, love Dimitrov's game, and would be thrilled if he were to live up to the fanfare, but I agree it won't be for a while, if ever.

I scanned through the top 50 a few minutes ago, and can't find a name I can reasonably put forth and claim, "Here's the next GS winner." Or even, "Here's the next Masters winner." Most of the guys in that group have either already reached, or are close to reaching, the height of their potential (Gasquet, Berdych, Tsonga, etc.), or are too old to expect anything else (Haas, Youzhny, Robredo, etc.).

But no one has a bullet next to his name. Occasionally people will pencil one in next to guys like Raonic or Janowicz. A player will get to a final here or there, the talk begins, some fans even prepare for the coronation, then ... nothing. Or at least nothing enduring.

 

[Front242]

That's a good point, Front, because upsets have increased as Fedal go into decline (of sorts) but the Big Four Inc. are still protecting their quadropoly - is that the right word for a monopoly split four ways?

What we need now is somebody to cause the ultimate upset and go all the way...

I'd be happy now even with someone causing an upset and at least making a final. Soderling and Berdych are the only 2 in recent memory with Sod's back to back RG finals in 2009 and 2010 and Berdych's Wimbledon final in 2010. Just reaching the final means we're not seeing the usual suspects in the finals. I'd like some diversity in 2014. Read this Le Sod and come asap please. The ATP tour needs you.

 

[tented]

Read this Le Sod and come asap please. The ATP tour needs you.

It will never happen. He's now 29, and hasn't played in almost 2.5 years. He's done.

 

[Front242]

Read this Le Sod and come asap please. The ATP tour needs you.

It will never happen. He's now 29, and hasn't played in almost 2.5 years. He's done.

Certainly looking that way alright but I won't say never till he officially retires. Where did the rumours of him taking a WC for Paris originate from? I assume that means he's getting there in terms of health..

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, having four players chase the majors is great, their dominance is earned and they give us great finals so we should be pleased, but there's nothing wrong with asking for more around Christmas, is there?

 

[tented]

In fairness, having four players chase the majors is great, their dominance is earned and they give us great finals so we should be pleased

As a Rafa fan, I am pleased that he continues to win, but for the sport in general things have arguably become too predictable. A few months ago I asked someone I had just met if he ever watches tennis, and he said no, because the same guys win everything. So while I agree with you that we're in a Golden Age, and should enjoy it while it lasts, I'm also wondering if this is bad for tennis from a larger perspective.

 

[Front242]

This is all I could find about Soderling and Paris 2013.

http://www.tennis-x.com/xblog/2013-10-16/13936.php

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Checking Dude's chart, I saw something that I found interesting. Both Sampras and Edberg won Rome...and pretty much nothing else on clay . That is the only mandatory 1000 Roger does not have.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^OH the irony of Pistol 'cantplayonclay' Petros winning a clay masters that Federer can't win.

that's a stat attack and that's a fact.

 

[huntingyou]

^^OH the irony of Pistol 'cantplayonclay' Petros winning a clay masters that Federer can't win.

that's a stat attack and that's a fact.

he had a match point on his racket.........

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I'm afraid Mr Soderling is done. Even if he comes back, could he possibly be expected to return to the level he displayed in his last couple years?

The ATP doesn't seem to have many great comeback stories, at least not an elite player missing a couple years and coming back to a similar level. The WTA is different, however - and I'm not talking about Monica Seles who never came back anywhere near her best self. But the two that come to mind are Jennifer Capriati and Kim Clijsters, both of whom came back after long periods (2+ years) better than ever. Justine Henin tried but couldn't quite manage it.

Speaking of the WTA, your comment about the 1980s, Kieran, got me to do some more research. Here are two phases of the WTA, although for the sake of my sanity I'm only including the four Slams and the WTA Championships.

Unfortunately it isn't very legible, but I think you can figure it out. The top graph is 1978 (Martina's first Slam win) to 1996 (the last year of Steffi's dominance), with Navratilova in red, Evert in blue, Graf in green, and Seles in purple.

The second chart is 1997 to the present and it paints a different picture. I colorized the five most dominant players: Hingis (pink), Serena (dark blue), Venus (light blue), Clijsters (light green) and Henin (lavender). A lot of white mixed in and only one player - Serena Williams - who attained a dominance similar to the "Big Four" of the 80s and 90s.

 

[Kieran]

Thanks El Dude, it's almost the same! The same players dominating everywhere. The WTA dominance lasted almost 20 years: we're going into the 12th season since Roger won his first slam. Maybe there's legs in this still, but I'd like to see a few other colours added to the chart, as well as different styles and temperaments.

Thanks again - makes for very interesting reading...

 

[Front242]

Well if Joachim Johansson can return at 31 and after a very bad shoulder injury and take Raonic to a TB set I'm still not giving up hope on Soderling returning to a high level if he does come back. Like Haas, missing all this court time means he could play many more years. It all just hangs on his health and fitness as the desire to get back on court is very much there for Soderling.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^OH the irony of Pistol 'cantplayonclay' Petros winning a clay masters that Federer can't win.

that's a stat attack and that's a fact.

he had a match point on his racket.........

Federer had 2 match points..didn't he, 15-40.

 

[tennisville]

In fairness, having four players chase the majors is great, their dominance is earned and they give us great finals so we should be pleased, but there's nothing wrong with asking for more around Christmas, is there?

:laydownlaughing:laydownlaughing

Speak for yourself here , those Djokovic Murray finals were painful to watch especially in Australia and the US uzzled

 

[Moxie]

I liked the US one.

 

[tented]

^^OH the irony of Pistol 'cantplayonclay' Petros winning a clay masters that Federer can't win.

that's a stat attack and that's a fact.

he had a match point on his racket.........

Federer had 2 match points..didn't he, 15-40.

Yes. Go to the four-hour mark, and you'll be there.

[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUma7TL_RDk[/video]

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This video distorts both fed and rafa. Makes them short and fat. It is funny.

Is not this 2006 rome final? I think it is this match that rang the death bell
to 5-set finals in Masters tournaments. Both Rafa and Roger skipped the
Hamburg tournament that was starting the next day.

 

[Fiero425]

This video distorts both fed and rafa. Makes them short and fat. It is funny.

Is not this 2006 rome final? I think it is this match that rang the death bell
to 5-set finals in Masters tournaments. Both Rafa and Roger skipped the
Hamburg tournament that was starting the next day.

I thought it terrible when tournament finals went away from best of 5 in huge events; Italian Open, Indian Wells, & Miami! With the compressed spring schedule so loaded, I guess they had to do something to eliminate withdrawals like you mentioned with Rafa and Roger! I still remember an IW final with Edberg over Agassi that went 4 sets, but took well over 4 hours with long sets! Common place now, but not so common "way back when!" They still need to push these guys to move quicker during matches! I see a little bit of it, but the guys still push the envelope; esp. Rafa!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This video distorts both fed and rafa. Makes them short and fat. It is funny.

Is not this 2006 rome final? I think it is this match that rang the death bell
to 5-set finals in Masters tournaments. Both Rafa and Roger skipped the
Hamburg tournament that was starting the next day.

I thought it terrible when tournament finals went away from best of 5 in huge events; Italian Open, Indian Wells, & Miami! With the compressed spring schedule so loaded, I guess they had to do something to eliminate withdrawals like you mentioned with Rafa and Roger! I still remember an IW final with Edberg and Agassi that went 4 sets, but took well over 4 hours with long sets! Common place now, but not so common "way back when!" They still need to push these guys to move quicker during matches! I see a little bit of it, but the guys still push the envelope; esp. Rafa!

I believe all Masters Tournament finals used to be best of 5 until this match between
Roger and Rafa. This not only made the finals into 3 sets but also paved the way for
1st rd bye for top 8 seeds in the second masters in case of consecutive masters events.