Djokovic's 2015 - a chance for something special

[DarthFed]

Haven't we seen this before? I can recall 2006 and 2007 (especially after Fed snapped Nadal's clay win streak in Hamburg in 2007) when folks were speaking about how Roger was going to win everything and possibly the grand slam. It did not happen, although he came closer than anyone those two years. Nole is a great player, but Paris is a ways off and SW19 is no gimme for him. New York? I think he will always be in contention there for a few more years.

They're all lucky the grass is so well manicured with such even bounces these days! Federer and Nole would have been upset more than once if they played in past eras; sorta what Rafa's going thru now! That's what made Borg's run so miraculous; surviving 6 straight years of chopped up grass and dirt, no warm-up events played, with every imaginable assault being made to bring him down! He still won 5 in a row and played in 6 straight finals! :eyepop :clap :angel:

Roger would've done just fine on the slick grass of the past. IMO, he'd have done better than he has on the stuff today.

 

[Fiero425]

Haven't we seen this before? I can recall 2006 and 2007 (especially after Fed snapped Nadal's clay win streak in Hamburg in 2007) when folks were speaking about how Roger was going to win everything and possibly the grand slam. It did not happen, although he came closer than anyone those two years. Nole is a great player, but Paris is a ways off and SW19 is no gimme for him. New York? I think he will always be in contention there for a few more years.

They're all lucky the grass is so well manicured with such even bounces these days! Federer and Nole would have been upset more than once if they played in past eras; sorta what Rafa's going thru now! That's what made Borg's run so miraculous; surviving 6 straight years of chopped up grass and dirt, no warm-up events played, with every imaginable assault being made to bring him down! He still won 5 in a row and played in 6 straight finals! :eyepop :clap :angel:

Roger would've done just fine on the slick grass of the past. IMO, he'd have done better than he has on the stuff today.

He probably would have finished off Nadal in '08 and avoided upset in 2010! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[DarthFed]

7 out of 12 is great but it's tough picturing Rafa or Nole taking him out on the super fast grass. On the other hand Roddick or some other enormous server might have edged him out one of the times he beat them. So I think he'd be 7 at worst, 9 at best.

 

[tented]

It is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Well, it depends what you mean by 'big titles'. If you mean the 'big 14' tournaments, then Novak has been dominating - he's won the last 6, after all. But only 1 of those was a slam.

At the slams, his dominance is far less noticeable. In fact, he has not been dominant at all.

Of the last 12 slams, Novak has won only 3.

And this during a period when he has been world no.1 for the vast majority of that time. He has been the favourite (or the second favourite at RG), for most of those slams. So for all the talk recently of his amazing physical and mental strengths, his ability to produce his prime game when it matters most has actually been questionable over the last few years. Based on past evidence with Novak, him winning the Masters events does not necessarily translate into slam glory.

However, he has won 2 of the last 3 slams, so maybe he has turned a corner in this regard...

That's a fair, accurate assessment of the situation. (And, yes, by "big titles" I meant the big 14.)

I guess what I'm trying to say is simply that Roger is past his prime, and hasn't won a Major in almost 3 years. Rafa is also past his prime, and even doing poorly on clay. Murray had a window there in 2012-2013 in which he did well, but he hasn't been able to keep up that level.

Wawrinka is looking more and more like a one-slam wonder every day. It's hard to say with Cilic, considering what's been going on with him, but I wouldn't bet anything on his defending the USO.

Which leaves Novak positioned as the favorite. No, he won't win everything -- just to state that again -- but he will win lots, until someone from the upcoming generation steps up and provides a genuine challenge for supremacy.

 

[Great Hands]

It is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Well, it depends what you mean by 'big titles'. If you mean the 'big 14' tournaments, then Novak has been dominating - he's won the last 6, after all. But only 1 of those was a slam.

At the slams, his dominance is far less noticeable. In fact, he has not been dominant at all.

Of the last 12 slams, Novak has won only 3.

And this during a period when he has been world no.1 for the vast majority of that time. He has been the favourite (or the second favourite at RG), for most of those slams. So for all the talk recently of his amazing physical and mental strengths, his ability to produce his prime game when it matters most has actually been questionable over the last few years. Based on past evidence with Novak, him winning the Masters events does not necessarily translate into slam glory.

However, he has won 2 of the last 3 slams, so maybe he has turned a corner in this regard...

That's a fair, accurate assessment of the situation. (And, yes, by "big titles" I meant the big 14.)

I guess what I'm trying to say is simply that Roger is past his prime, and hasn't won a Major in almost 3 years. Rafa is also past his prime, and even doing poorly on clay. Murray had a window there in 2012-2013 in which he did well, but he hasn't been able to keep up that level.

Wawrinka is looking more and more like a one-slam wonder every day. It's hard to say with Cilic, considering what's been going on with him, but I wouldn't bet anything on his defending the USO.

Which leaves Novak positioned as the favorite. No, he won't win everything -- just to state that again -- but he will win lots, until someone from the upcoming generation steps up and provides a genuine challenge for supremacy.

You make good points. Although Novak can be said to have underperformed at slams over the past 3 years, it seems the landscape is easier for him now than it's ever been.

However, it doesn't necessarily need one big rival 'challenging him for supremacy'. At any given tournament, it just takes one of a number of players having a great day. Wawrinka did it at the AO, where Novak seemed virtually unbeatable, and I certainly didn't see Nishikori's win over Novak at the USO last year coming. Next time it could be someone different stepping up, although we couldn't predict it now. Maybe they'll then lose in the next round, and someone else will take advantage.

It sounds like I'm hoping for this to happen, but I'm not. I like Novak. I just think that it's easy to assume, when someone is having a dominant run, that it will not change.

It's also worth noting that Djokovic's current run of big titles are all on slower surfaces - slow hards and clay. On grass and fast hards, he has more legitimate competition. Look at WD - Fed ran him close last year, and both Cilic and Del Potro took him to 5 the last couple of years. Murray's a lot better on grass. And despite getting to the latter stages of the USO every year for years, Novak has only won it once - still, to me, one of the strangest stats in the current game, given his dominance on hards. But I guess it shows the difference between slow and faster hards, as does the fact that all Murray's wins over Novak since 2011 have been on grass and faster hards, and as does Fed's recent triumphs over Novak on fast hards.

The year is still pretty young and anything can happen...

 

[Obsi]

Will Novak avoid post-US Open letdown like in 2011?

"Another interesting feature of the Vajda interview is the acceptance that Djokovic pushed himself too hard after Wimbledon, perhaps fuelled by the feeling of invincibility or tempted by the scent of history. "He wasn't paying attention to his body" says Vajda, candidly. It was this admirable devotion to the practice court which Vajda believes contributed to Djokovic's shoulder problems which then persisted through until the end of the year and dented his season stats. He may have ended with six defeats, but two were injury retirements, two were in the final week of the season and one was when he hit the wall against Kei Nishikori in Basle."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2011/12/djokovic_an_outrageous_season.html

Has he learned his lesson?

 

[nehmeth]

Will Novak avoid post-US Open letdown like in 2011?

"Another interesting feature of the Vajda interview is the acceptance that Djokovic pushed himself too hard after Wimbledon, perhaps fuelled by the feeling of invincibility or tempted by the scent of history. "He wasn't paying attention to his body" says Vajda, candidly. It was this admirable devotion to the practice court which Vajda believes contributed to Djokovic's shoulder problems which then persisted through until the end of the year and dented his season stats. He may have ended with six defeats, but two were injury retirements, two were in the final week of the season and one was when he hit the wall against Kei Nishikori in Basle."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2011/12/djokovic_an_outrageous_season.html

Has he learned his lesson?

He still chose to skip Madrid, even with Tiriac having donated a huge sum of money to one of the charities he started up. I think he's learned.

 

[Riotbeard]

Will Novak avoid post-US Open letdown like in 2011?

"Another interesting feature of the Vajda interview is the acceptance that Djokovic pushed himself too hard after Wimbledon, perhaps fuelled by the feeling of invincibility or tempted by the scent of history. "He wasn't paying attention to his body" says Vajda, candidly. It was this admirable devotion to the practice court which Vajda believes contributed to Djokovic's shoulder problems which then persisted through until the end of the year and dented his season stats. He may have ended with six defeats, but two were injury retirements, two were in the final week of the season and one was when he hit the wall against Kei Nishikori in Basle."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2011/12/djokovic_an_outrageous_season.html

Has he learned his lesson?

He still chose to skip Madrid, even with Tiriac having donated a huge sum of money to one of the charities he started up. I think he's learned.

He also hasn't had to play the nadal slugfests of 2011 yet. His level this year is a little lower than 2011, but he is also playing a bit more within himself, which will bode well for endurance.

 

[nehmeth]

His level this year is a little lower than 2011, but he is also playing a bit more within himself, which will bode well for endurance.

Actually, his levels are quite close to 2011's, many are identical, and others are better.

Was surprised when I read this:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/05/20/Roland-Garros-Djokovic-2011-2015-Statistics.aspx

 

[Billie]

Will Novak avoid post-US Open letdown like in 2011?

"Another interesting feature of the Vajda interview is the acceptance that Djokovic pushed himself too hard after Wimbledon, perhaps fuelled by the feeling of invincibility or tempted by the scent of history. "He wasn't paying attention to his body" says Vajda, candidly. It was this admirable devotion to the practice court which Vajda believes contributed to Djokovic's shoulder problems which then persisted through until the end of the year and dented his season stats. He may have ended with six defeats, but two were injury retirements, two were in the final week of the season and one was when he hit the wall against Kei Nishikori in Basle."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2011/12/djokovic_an_outrageous_season.html

Has he learned his lesson?

While he was nursing that injury in September and stayed away from tennis for a month or so he said that he learned from that experience. Ever since then, I can't remember a tournament where he pushed so hard that he sustained some major physical problems, being tired and mental exhaustion don't count. Yeah, he had some minor problems with his arm last year (due to not being able to switch smoothly from hard to clay courts), one year he turned his ankle in a DC in the States, he did have some minor problems with his back in 2013, but I am glad that he really hasn't forced anything to make matters worse. I think that is the main problem with so many players having constant injuries. They push and push and push and then make it worse for themselves.

If he has a successful year and his #1 ranking is locked by the end of September, I really can see him taking the rest of the season really easy. He is smart about his schedule. He has played the least amount of tournaments this year and he is still comfortably ahead in the race rankings. They are keeping a wild card for him in Halle as he told them that his participation there will be directly influenced by his results in Paris. If he goes deep at RG, then he will skip Halle, if he loses earlier than expected, then he will definitely play it.

 

[Billie]

His level this year is a little lower than 2011, but he is also playing a bit more within himself, which will bode well for endurance.

Actually, his levels are quite close to 2011's, many are identical, and others are better.

Was surprised when I read this:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/05/20/Roland-Garros-Djokovic-2011-2015-Statistics.aspx

Exact number of double faults in both years:snicker

He hit more aces this year, sadly there are no statistics on his net play, I bet those would be better this year as well. Time to give ol' Boris some credit?


"Striking 35 more aces (190) coming into this year's Roland Garros, as opposed to in 2011 (155), he is also winning a very healthy 60 per cent of points on second serve, up from 56 per cent on 2011. The tactical shift has all the hallmarks of Becker, hired in late 2013."