Djokovic's 2015 - a chance for something special

El Dude

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With Novak the favorite to win tomorrow against Berdych, he has a chance for something really special this year. First of all, he would be the first player since the Masters tournaments began in 1990 to win all four of the first four big tournaments. Secondly, he will become well-situated to break the record he tied of 8 big titles in a year.

What I mean by "big titles" is the 14 biggest tournaments of the year: the four Grand Slams, the World Tour Finals, and the nine Masters events. Since 1990, here are the best years in terms of number of big titles won:

8: Federer (2006), Djokovic (2011)
7: Federer (2004), Nadal (2013)
6: Sampras (1994), Federer (2005), Federer (2007), Nadal (2010), Djokovic (2014)
5: Sampras (1997), Nadal (2005), Nadal (2008), Djokovic (2012), Djokovic (2013)

In the 25 years from 1990-2014, the leader has won between 3 and 8 big tournaments in a given year, which breaks down as follows (number of years with leader at):

8: 2 years
7: 2 years
6: 5 years
5: 3 years
4: 3 years
3: 10 years

As you can see, the most common numbers is only 3 big titles but all of those happened between 1991 and 2003, meaning since 2004 there has been a more dominant player of the year.

Some interesting years:
- In 1995, three players tied for 4 big titles each - Sampras, Agassi, and Muster
- In 1997, Pete Sampras won 5 big titles and was the only player to win more than one; it was also one of only three years in which ten different players won a big title (the others being 1990 and 2002)
- The year with the fewest big title winners was 2013, with only Nadal (7), Djokovic (5), and Murray (2)
 

Obsi

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If Novak...

...wins Monte Carlo he will become the first player to win the opening three ATP Masters 1000 events of a season

....wins Cincinnati he will become the first player who completed career sweep of all nine Masters

....wins 6 Masters in 2015 he will break the record for Masters titles in a single season (five)
 

nehmeth

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Obsi said:
If Novak...

...wins Monte Carlo he will become the first player to win the opening three ATP Masters 1000 events of a season

....wins Cincinnati he will become the first player who completed career sweep of all nine Masters

....wins 6 Masters in 2015 he will break the record for Masters titles in a single season (five)

In the Fedal era, he does what he can to carve out a little bit of history for himself. Stay healthy and keep at it Nole!
 

Fiero425

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nehmeth said:
Obsi said:
If Novak...

...wins Monte Carlo he will become the first player to win the opening three ATP Masters 1000 events of a season

....wins Cincinnati he will become the first player who completed career sweep of all nine Masters

....wins 6 Masters in 2015 he will break the record for Masters titles in a single season (five)

In the Fedal era, he does what he can to carve out a little bit of history for himself. Stay healthy and keep at it Nole!

Nole and Rafa have carved out their own little piece of history for themselves already; Masters wins, Rafa at FO, Nole at AO, top 10 and weeks at #1! :clap :angel: :dodgy: :popcorn
 

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I've been telling everybody that Nole is a special player:angel:

Having to go through two of the best players in tennis history to make his own history, admit it, it is not easy. To me this season is the best start of Nole's career, yes even better than 2011 as he didn't play Davis Cup that year and caught everybody by surprise. This year he's been calm, collected (for the most part), healthy and happy. I just wish that for him for the rest of the year and I won't worry about the results.:clap

Nice to see you back Fiero. :hug
 

El Dude

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nehmeth said:
In the Fedal era, he does what he can to carve out a little bit of history for himself. Stay healthy and keep at it Nole!

I think it is a bit more than "a little bit of history." Novak is veering on the edge of being mentioned in the same breath historically speaking. He isn't quite there yet, but he'll at least come close.

Actually, it reminds me a bit of Ivan Lendl relative to Borg (Federer) and McEnroe (Nadal). Consider their comparable birth years:
Borg 6/56
McEnroe 2/59
Lendl 3/60

Borg retired after 1981; McEnroe's last Slam victory was 1984. At the end of 1984, McEnroe had 7 Slams to Lendl's 1. Lendl won 7 more Slams from 1985-1990 to McEnroe's 0, despite only being a year younger.

Novak is also about a year younger than Nadal. Through Nadal's last Slam win (so far)--Roland Garros in 2014--Novak had won 6 Slams to Rafa's 14. It isn't exactly the same, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similarly lop-sided record going forward to the later careers of McEnroe and Lendl, although I do expect another Slam or three for Rafa.
 

Billie

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Some history:

first player to win the first 3 masters 1000 tournaments to start the year

first player to win AO and first 3 masters 1000 tournaments

first player to win 6 straight tournaments that are 1000 and above (Paris, WTF, AO, IW, Miami, MC)

Well done Nole!!!:clap
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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I'm still up for djokovic doing the grand slam..he could do it. looking good so far.........watch n see.
 

tented

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El Dude said:
nehmeth said:
In the Fedal era, he does what he can to carve out a little bit of history for himself. Stay healthy and keep at it Nole!

I think it is a bit more than "a little bit of history." Novak is veering on the edge of being mentioned in the same breath historically speaking. He isn't quite there yet, but he'll at least come close.

Actually, it reminds me a bit of Ivan Lendl relative to Borg (Federer) and McEnroe (Nadal). Consider their comparable birth years:
Borg 6/56
McEnroe 2/59
Lendl 3/60

Borg retired after 1981; McEnroe's last Slam victory was 1984. At the end of 1984, McEnroe had 7 Slams to Lendl's 1. Lendl won 7 more Slams from 1985-1990 to McEnroe's 0, despite only being a year younger.

Novak is also about a year younger than Nadal. Through Nadal's last Slam win (so far)--Roland Garros in 2014--Novak had won 6 Slams to Rafa's 14. It isn't exactly the same, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similarly lop-sided record going forward to the later careers of McEnroe and Lendl, although I do expect another Slam or three for Rafa.

Isn't it practically inevitable at this point? Fedal are a shadow of their former selves, and there's no one coming up behind Novak to offer any substantial threat at the big events. Unless he gets injured, he has the chance to clean up in the next few years.
 

Moxie

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^ Well, I don't agree with you completely that Novak has a clear run at everything. In 2011, yes. But in the last year, the field, and the youngsters have begun to threaten. Wawrinka and Cilic may be glitches, but a lot of players see themselves in with a chance. And I think it's too soon to count Nadal out, particularly in the big moments. Surely, Novak is a formidable #1 now, but there is a lot of tennis to be played this year.
 

tented

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Moxie629 said:
^ Well, I don't agree with you completely that Novak has a clear run at everything. In 2011, yes. But in the last year, the field, and the youngsters have begun to threaten. Wawrinka and Cilic may be glitches, but a lot of players see themselves in with a chance. And I think it's too soon to count Nadal out, particularly in the big moments. Surely, Novak is a formidable #1 now, but there is a lot of tennis to be played this year.

I never stated he will win everything. That would be impossible. However, it is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Nor did I count Nadal out. Until shown otherwise, he is still the favorite at RG. But his run there can't last forever. Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again, and there's a good chance it will be against Djokovic, maybe even this year. Novak has had six tries at it, without success, but it's possible Rafa's abilities have now diminished to the point where Novak can finally beat him in Paris.
 

shawnbm

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Haven't we seen this before? I can recall 2006 and 2007 (especially after Fed snapped Nadal's clay win streak in Hamburg in 2007) when folks were speaking about how Roger was going to win everything and possibly the grand slam. It did not happen, although he came closer than anyone those two years. Nole is a great player, but Paris is a ways off and SW19 is no gimme for him. New York? I think he will always be in contention there for a few more years.
 

Fiero425

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shawnbm said:
Haven't we seen this before? I can recall 2006 and 2007 (especially after Fed snapped Nadal's clay win streak in Hamburg in 2007) when folks were speaking about how Roger was going to win everything and possibly the grand slam. It did not happen, although he came closer than anyone those two years. Nole is a great player, but Paris is a ways off and SW19 is no gimme for him. New York? I think he will always be in contention there for a few more years.

They're all lucky the grass is so well manicured with such even bounces these days! Federer and Nole would have been upset more than once if they played in past eras; sorta what Rafa's going thru now! That's what made Borg's run so miraculous; surviving 6 straight years of chopped up grass and dirt, no warm-up events played, with every imaginable assault being made to bring him down! He still won 5 in a row and played in 6 straight finals! :popcorn :eyepop :clap :angel:
 

Moxie

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tented said:
Moxie629 said:
^ Well, I don't agree with you completely that Novak has a clear run at everything. In 2011, yes. But in the last year, the field, and the youngsters have begun to threaten. Wawrinka and Cilic may be glitches, but a lot of players see themselves in with a chance. And I think it's too soon to count Nadal out, particularly in the big moments. Surely, Novak is a formidable #1 now, but there is a lot of tennis to be played this year.

I never stated he will win everything. That would be impossible. However, it is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Nor did I count Nadal out. Until shown otherwise, he is still the favorite at RG. But his run there can't last forever. Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again, and there's a good chance it will be against Djokovic, maybe even this year. Novak has had six tries at it, without success, but it's possible Rafa's abilities have now diminished to the point where Novak can finally beat him in Paris.

Understood on both counts. I was only trying to say that the competition, while not yet formidable, is more diverse than it has been for years. Upsets are more likely than in '12-'13. That is not to say that you might not be right, and Djokovic could successfully navigate most minefields while the youngsters build game and confidence.

shawnbm said:
Haven't we seen this before? I can recall 2006 and 2007 (especially after Fed snapped Nadal's clay win streak in Hamburg in 2007) when folks were speaking about how Roger was going to win everything and possibly the grand slam. It did not happen, although he came closer than anyone those two years. Nole is a great player, but Paris is a ways off and SW19 is no gimme for him. New York? I think he will always be in contention there for a few more years.

Well, yes, and it doesn't mean the calendar Slam is any more likely than it ever is, but I think El Dude's original point was only that Djokovic has a chance to run a lot titles this year with relatively little competition. Which could well happen. If only Nadal, Federer and Murray can hope to stop him, it indeed be another impressive year for Nole.
 

GameSetAndMath

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tented said:
Moxie629 said:
^ Well, I don't agree with you completely that Novak has a clear run at everything. In 2011, yes. But in the last year, the field, and the youngsters have begun to threaten. Wawrinka and Cilic may be glitches, but a lot of players see themselves in with a chance. And I think it's too soon to count Nadal out, particularly in the big moments. Surely, Novak is a formidable #1 now, but there is a lot of tennis to be played this year.

I never stated he will win everything. That would be impossible. However, it is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Nor did I count Nadal out. Until shown otherwise, he is still the favorite at RG. But his run there can't last forever. Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again, and there's a good chance it will be against Djokovic, maybe even this year. Novak has had six tries at it, without success, but it's possible Rafa's abilities have now diminished to the point where Novak can finally beat him in Paris.

That is a tautology! :puzzled
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
tented said:
Moxie629 said:
^ Well, I don't agree with you completely that Novak has a clear run at everything. In 2011, yes. But in the last year, the field, and the youngsters have begun to threaten. Wawrinka and Cilic may be glitches, but a lot of players see themselves in with a chance. And I think it's too soon to count Nadal out, particularly in the big moments. Surely, Novak is a formidable #1 now, but there is a lot of tennis to be played this year.

I never stated he will win everything. That would be impossible. However, it is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Nor did I count Nadal out. Until shown otherwise, he is still the favorite at RG. But his run there can't last forever. Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again, and there's a good chance it will be against Djokovic, maybe even this year. Novak has had six tries at it, without success, but it's possible Rafa's abilities have now diminished to the point where Novak can finally beat him in Paris.

That is a tautology! :puzzled

No, it's not. If Rafa keeps winning at RG, and then retires, he might never lose there again. It's not the most likely scenario, however. He'll more likely lose at some point. Others have even pointed out that he might lose, and then yet win it again. I think the least likely possibility, at this point, is that he never wins at RG again. This year, or another.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Moxie629 said:
GameSetAndMath said:
tented said:
I never stated he will win everything. That would be impossible. However, it is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Nor did I count Nadal out. Until shown otherwise, he is still the favorite at RG. But his run there can't last forever. Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again, and there's a good chance it will be against Djokovic, maybe even this year. Novak has had six tries at it, without success, but it's possible Rafa's abilities have now diminished to the point where Novak can finally beat him in Paris.

That is a tautology! :puzzled

No, it's not. If Rafa keeps winning at RG, and then retires, he might never lose there again. It's not the most likely scenario, however. He'll more likely lose at some point. Others have even pointed out that he might lose, and then yet win it again. I think the least likely possibility, at this point, is that he never wins at RG again. This year, or another.

No, it is.

In "Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again", it refers to
Rafa eventually losing in RG again. So basically, tented's statement is that

"Unless he retires before he eventually loses in RG, he will lose there again".
That surely is a plain simple statement that is guaranteed to be true.
 

Moxie

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GameSetAndMath said:
Moxie629 said:
GameSetAndMath said:
That is a tautology! :puzzled

No, it's not. If Rafa keeps winning at RG, and then retires, he might never lose there again. It's not the most likely scenario, however. He'll more likely lose at some point. Others have even pointed out that he might lose, and then yet win it again. I think the least likely possibility, at this point, is that he never wins at RG again. This year, or another.

No, it is.

In "Unless he retires before it happens, he will lose there again", it refers to
Rafa eventually losing in RG again. So basically, tented's statement is that

"Unless he retires before he eventually loses in RG, he will lose there again".
That surely is a plain simple statement that is guaranteed to be true.

A tautology is saying the same thing twice. There is still the possibility that Nadal retires before he loses again, so it isn't a repetition. Tented is correct that there are two possibilities.
 

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tented said:
It is clear he will win a lot, perhaps even most big titles in the next year or two -- as he has been doing for a while now. I'm simply going by the evidence we already have.

Well, it depends what you mean by 'big titles'. If you mean the 'big 14' tournaments, then Novak has been dominating - he's won the last 6, after all. But only 1 of those was a slam.

At the slams, his dominance is far less noticeable. In fact, he has not been dominant at all.

Of the last 12 slams, Novak has won only 3.

And this during a period when he has been world no.1 for the vast majority of that time. He has been the favourite (or the second favourite at RG), for most of those slams. So for all the talk recently of his amazing physical and mental strengths, his ability to produce his prime game when it matters most has actually been questionable over the last few years. Based on past evidence with Novak, him winning the Masters events does not necessarily translate into slam glory.

However, he has won 2 of the last 3 slams, so maybe he has turned a corner in this regard...