El Dude
The GOAT
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- Apr 14, 2013
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Good post, rafanoy. Holger might need a year to acclimate to being a "name." He's entered that phase of a year or two where it is often decided whether a player becomes elite or not, great or less than. But he's got time to figure it out - this may be a consolidation year.
You mentioned Sinner. He actually back-sled a bit last year. He went from 121 in 2019 to 30 to 10, then fell back slightly (or consolidated) to 12 last year. But 2021 was a better year, with more titles and deeper runs. Now he seems like he's taking that next step. I suspect 2023 will be for Holger what 2022 was for Sinner, and we'll see another push up into the true elite, but not until 2024.
Felix is a bit trickier...his rise has been slower, with more "plateauing," although some of that was the unusual nature of 2020. But he went from 108 in 2017 to 21 for two years to 11 in 2021 to 6 last year, now it seems uncertain where he'll settle. Certainly top 10ish, but can he take that next step up into the top 5 or will he settle in as a lower half top 10 player like Rublev and (I think soon) Ruud?
And of course Alcaraz...it is just a matter of how great he'll become. His rise has been meteoric, but even he might take another two or three years to fully flesh out his game.
In other words, we're seeing the guys born in 1998 and later rise into the elite, and they're still shuffling around to see who everyone "is." We know who the Next Genners are: Medvedev and Zverev (if health) are the big dogs, and bonafide top 5 elite guys (if not quite greats), with Tsitsipas a half step behind (and looking like something of an underachiever, as a few years ago he looked like he might be the best of the three but has kind of plateaued for four years now). Then there's the second tier of Ruud, Rublev and Berrettini for a bit, with a closely grouped third tier of Hurkacz, Khachanov, Fritz, and then Tiafoe looking more like a top 20 guy. But i don't expect a lot to change with these guys - they're all 25-27, and even if they have more big titles and Slams ahead, we're probably not going to see any of them become a perennial #1 or all-time great, or even really more than what they've been so far.
But we still don't know who Rune is or can become, how great Alcaraz will be, if Felix has that next gear, or where Sinner's current surge will take him. What does seem clear is that at least some of these guys will surpass the best of Next Gen. Alcaraz might already be there, and I suspect Sinner will be at least as good as the "Big Three" of Next Gen and possibly better. But Felix? Rune? Who knows?
You mentioned Sinner. He actually back-sled a bit last year. He went from 121 in 2019 to 30 to 10, then fell back slightly (or consolidated) to 12 last year. But 2021 was a better year, with more titles and deeper runs. Now he seems like he's taking that next step. I suspect 2023 will be for Holger what 2022 was for Sinner, and we'll see another push up into the true elite, but not until 2024.
Felix is a bit trickier...his rise has been slower, with more "plateauing," although some of that was the unusual nature of 2020. But he went from 108 in 2017 to 21 for two years to 11 in 2021 to 6 last year, now it seems uncertain where he'll settle. Certainly top 10ish, but can he take that next step up into the top 5 or will he settle in as a lower half top 10 player like Rublev and (I think soon) Ruud?
And of course Alcaraz...it is just a matter of how great he'll become. His rise has been meteoric, but even he might take another two or three years to fully flesh out his game.
In other words, we're seeing the guys born in 1998 and later rise into the elite, and they're still shuffling around to see who everyone "is." We know who the Next Genners are: Medvedev and Zverev (if health) are the big dogs, and bonafide top 5 elite guys (if not quite greats), with Tsitsipas a half step behind (and looking like something of an underachiever, as a few years ago he looked like he might be the best of the three but has kind of plateaued for four years now). Then there's the second tier of Ruud, Rublev and Berrettini for a bit, with a closely grouped third tier of Hurkacz, Khachanov, Fritz, and then Tiafoe looking more like a top 20 guy. But i don't expect a lot to change with these guys - they're all 25-27, and even if they have more big titles and Slams ahead, we're probably not going to see any of them become a perennial #1 or all-time great, or even really more than what they've been so far.
But we still don't know who Rune is or can become, how great Alcaraz will be, if Felix has that next gear, or where Sinner's current surge will take him. What does seem clear is that at least some of these guys will surpass the best of Next Gen. Alcaraz might already be there, and I suspect Sinner will be at least as good as the "Big Three" of Next Gen and possibly better. But Felix? Rune? Who knows?
