Clay Season preview

[MargaretMcAleer]

If Dominic wants down the track to win RG he has to improve his defense for starters.Rafa exposed his lack of defense on clay at RG,the times he played him in the final.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

If Nadal is at 25% of his level he will win the FO again this year.

(Last year he was at about 10% of his level)

 

[Jelenafan]

I would be shocked if he didn't have struggles from the start. He did at his first tournament back...2 amazing wins, then a rather shocking loss. This is what I will expect from him, to start. His game doesn't exist in a vacuum, and a lot of players have matured and moved on since he was last on the tour. However, I agree he would likely be on his game by, say, Madrid.

A lot of players?
How about just one: Carlos Alcaraz.

Tsitsipas & Zverev, the two crown princes, the verdict is still out how much they’ve matured their game and mental strength, Ruud until now has underachieved in the big red clay tournies, Sinner and FAA are still evolving question marks. Medvedev & Berrettini have injuries, though even without that on red clay they aren’t considered that huge a threat. I love Rublev but even I wouldn’t presume he’s made a huge quantum leap, ditto Schwartzman. Theim is worse off than he’s been in years. Shapavolov and maturing is an oxymoron.

Sorry but I don’t see this huge increase in depth and dangerous players on the red clay season. As always the looming question for Roland Garros is how healthy Nadal will be.

So maybe a total of 2 players.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

If Nadal is at 25% of his level he will win the FO again this year.

(Last year he was at about 10% of his level)

It will depend when he can get some match play on clay, at present there is still no indication when he will return,only his doctor's evaluation that it could take 4 to 6 weeks.

 

[Moxie]

A lot of players?
How about just one: Carlos Alcaraz.

Tsitsipas & Zverev, the two crown princes, the verdict is still out how much they’ve matured their game and mental strength, Ruud until now has underachieved in the big red clay tournies, Sinner and FAA are still evolving question marks. Medvedev & Berrettini have injuries, though even without that on red clay they aren’t considered that huge a threat. I love Rublev but even I wouldn’t presume he’s made a huge quantum leap, ditto Schwartzman. Theim is worse off than he’s been in years. Shapavolov and maturing is an oxymoron.

Sorry but I don’t see this huge increase in depth and dangerous players on the red clay season. As always the looming question for Roland Garros is how healthy Nadal will be.

So maybe a total of 2 players.

Well, yes primarily Alcaraz and Ruud, but I wasn't thinking only of clay, so Fritz is another one, and as I said the older Cerundolo is suddenly making noise, and he IS a clay guy. You mentioned hope for Musetti (who beat Ramos Viñolas today in Marrakesh, btw,) who is still in the category of hope, and just turned 20. But I wasn't necessarily thinking of the top guys, but, ok, "a lot" was an exaggeration. Still, I think Djokovic just dropping straight back into the deep end of the pool won't be that easy 4 and a half months into the year.

 

[Jelenafan]

Well, yes primarily Alcaraz and Ruud, but I wasn't thinking only of clay, so Fritz is another one, and as I said the older Cerundolo is suddenly making noise, and he IS a clay guy. You mentioned hope for Musetti (who beat Ramos Viñolas today in Marrakesh, btw,) who is still in the category of hope, and just turned 20. But I wasn't necessarily thinking of the top guys, but, ok, "a lot" was an exaggeration. Still, I think Djokovic just dropping straight back into the deep end of the pool won't be that easy 4 and a half months into the year.

Medvedev is a factor, can't dent that.

As much as I mock Tsitsipas & Zverev , there is a reason many are waiting for them to step forward; they have had somewhat consistent results the last few years, making SF’s of Majors and in both cases coming within one set, heck, maybe 1 or 2 games or points of winning a Major. They've won Masters and YE champs and beaten the Big 3 multiple times. Yet now with them the question is "show me the money".

Outside of them , who do we really have to challenge the current big 2? Fritz just won a Masters, but there is still more a hope then an assurance that that will lead to more consistent play. Take Aslan Karatsev, made a huge splash last year reaching the SF at Oz, beaten Djokovic later that spring, etc. Now he's settled into that “dangerous” player in the 10-35 ranking slots including Hurkatz, Shapovalov, etc. Theim was the best bet besides Nadal for 3-4 years for Roland Garros but with him careening so far down who else are we going to bet will be making the finals of FO (barring the draw placing them in the same half) than Rafa and Novak. I guess what I'm saying, others can step up to make the FO finals but it's still more a hope than a done deal that will happen.

People around here get upset at Fiero for pointing out that the rigors of the circuit make the players inconsistent , but honestly the big 3 are simply freaks. Other than Jimmy Connors and Agassi, I can't think of anyone who's been competitive 13+ years in the highest levels of ATP tennis in the last 65 years of Open Tennis, and even then neither Connors nor Agassi won at the level of these 3 for so long...

Alcaraz seems to be different, but we won't know for sure until he lifts one of the those Major Trophys over his head, which is a heck of a lot of pressure to put on an 18 year old. I do think he's got "IT" , but time will tell.

 

[Moxie]

Medvedev is a factor, can't dent that.

As much as I mock Tsitsipas & Zverev , there is a reason many are waiting for them to step forward; they have had somewhat consistent results the last few years, making SF’s of Majors and in both cases coming within one set, heck, maybe 1 or 2 games or points of winning a Major. They've won Masters and YE champs and beaten the Big 3 multiple times. Yet now with them the question is "show me the money".

Outside of them , who do we really have to challenge the current big 2? Fritz just won a Masters, but there is still more a hope then an assurance that that will lead to more consistent play. Take Aslan Karatsev, made a huge splash last year reaching the SF at Oz, beaten Djokovic later that spring, etc. Now he's settled into that “dangerous” player in the 10-35 ranking slots including Hurkatz, Shapovalov, etc. Theim was the best bet besides Nadal for 3-4 years for Roland Garros but with him careening so far down who else are we going to bet will be making the finals of FO (barring the draw placing them in the same half) than Rafa and Novak. I guess what I'm saying, others can step up to make the FO finals but it's still more a hope than a done deal that will happen.

People around here get upset at Fiero for pointing out that the rigors of the circuit make the players inconsistent , but honestly the big 3 are simply freaks. Other than Jimmy Connors and Agassi, I can't think of anyone who's been competitive 13+ years in the highest levels of ATP tennis in the last 65 years of Open Tennis, and even then neither Connors nor Agassi won at the level of these 3 for so long...

Alcaraz seems to be different, but we won't know for sure until he lifts one of the those Major Trophys over his head, which is a heck of a lot of pressure to put on an 18 year old. I do think he's got "IT" , but time will tell.

I agree with all of this, but what I'm really talking about is the short-term and the landmines in the upcoming season(s.) Basically because Novak will come in rusty, and Rafa, when he comes back with all of his ribs, will be rusty, too. If they're both hitting even something like their stride by RG, they will be the prohibitive 2 and 1 favorites. Or, co-favorites, depending on how it goes. Alcaraz is currently looking good on betting odds for #3, but time will tell. My point is not that there are a lot of players looking to take the trophies, but that could cause trouble, esp. if top players are not at their best.

Yes, the "crown princes," as you call them, Zverev and Tsitsipas, (with Medvedev sidelined for now) should look to do damage early in the clay season. But do we trust them? Not so much. And if they don't? Bad on them! I'm with those who think that Zverev should be in a time-out right now, but since he's not, and if he can keep his head together, along with Stephanos, if they are as ambitious as they pretend to be, Monte Carlo/early clay season would be the time to shine. I think they're both healthy. Let's see what they bring. Most of the rest of the players I'm mentioning are about spoiling someone's day, not going for the brass ring. Except probably Alcaraz and Ruud. By the time we get to Roland Garros, I expect this conversation to be rather different.

 

[don_fabio]

Novak
Will be interesting to see how he comes back and how his game on clay will look this year. It took him quite long to find his groove last year. I hope he plays good amount of tournaments so he can get to the point when he feels comfortable and confident on clay and on tennis court in general. If there is one thing that works in favour of older guys like Novak and Nadal that is definitely how fresh they are. The good thing is he was not injured. The bad thing is he was mentally defeated.

Nadal
Unexpected setback from the ribs, but it might work in his favour actually. He should be well rested for demanding play on clay and if he continues where he stopped, gets match play before RG and even if he doesn't win a tournament before RG, as long as he comes healthy to RG he will still be no.1 favorite. His game develops in Paris to something else, it is where he plays his absolute best.

Alcaraz
I think we all still don't know what this kid is capable of and only time will tell. As far as I am concerned he could win RG. but he could also lose some tight match late in tournament QF or SF. I expect him to get at least one clay tournament win before RG. Would like to see more battling between him and Nadal and also how Novak will play against this kid.

Tsitsipas, Zverev
I don't know what is going on with these 2 guys, they seem like they lost their mojo (if they even had one). Are they going to step up for the clay and embrace the suffering on the dirt? I hope they do, because they can play some really good clay court tennis, even more the greek.

Ruud, Sinner, Musetti
They could all step up and win something, beat someone from the above 3 guys on some of the tournaments, but on RG I don't see any of them winning against Nadal. So the main question again after 17 or so years is who is capable of beating Nadal in RG?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Novak
Will be interesting to see how he comes back and how his game on clay will look this year. It took him quite long to find his groove last year. I hope he plays good amount of tournaments so he can get to the point when he feels comfortable and confident on clay and on tennis court in general. If there is one thing that works in favour of older guys like Novak and Nadal that is definitely how fresh they are. The good thing is he was not injured. The bad thing is he was mentally defeated.

Nadal
Unexpected setback from the ribs, but it might work in his favour actually. He should be well rested for demanding play on clay and if he continues where he stopped, gets match play before RG and even if he doesn't win a tournament before RG, as long as he comes healthy to RG he will still be no.1 favorite. His game develops in Paris to something else, it is where he plays his absolute best.

Alcaraz
I think we all still don't know what this kid is capable of and only time will tell. As far as I am concerned he could win RG. but he could also lose some tight match late in tournament QF or SF. I expect him to get at least one clay tournament win before RG. Would like to see more battling between him and Nadal and also how Novak will play against this kid.

Tsitsipas, Zverev
I don't know what is going on with these 2 guys, they seem like they lost their mojo (if they even had one). Are they going to step up for the clay and embrace the suffering on the dirt? I hope they do, because they can play some really good clay court tennis, even more the greek.

Ruud, Sinner, Musetti
They could all step up and win something, beat someone from the above 3 guys on some of the tournaments, but on RG I don't see any of them winning against Nadal. So the main question again after 17 or so years is who is capable of beating Nadal in RG?

Fair enough but next time please give top billing to Nadal because he is the GOAT with the slam record and he is also more popular than all these players combined. Thanks.

 

[tented]

Novak
Will be interesting to see how he comes back and how his game on clay will look this year. It took him quite long to find his groove last year. I hope he plays good amount of tournaments so he can get to the point when he feels comfortable and confident on clay and on tennis court in general. If there is one thing that works in favour of older guys like Novak and Nadal that is definitely how fresh they are. The good thing is he was not injured. The bad thing is he was mentally defeated.

My prediction is Novak will more or less fall into rhythm pretty quickly. He’s too much of a champion not to find his form easily, especially since he’s not injured and certainly well rested. I’d be stunned if he’s not a serious contender at Roland Garros.

Nadal
Unexpected setback from the ribs, but it might work in his favour actually. He should be well rested for demanding play on clay and if he continues where he stopped, gets match play before RG and even if he doesn't win a tournament before RG, as long as he comes healthy to RG he will still be no.1 favorite. His game develops in Paris to something else, it is where he plays his absolute best.

The rib factor has been a concern, but it seems to be healing, so I expect he’ll be Nadal!™ soon enough.

Alcaraz
I think we all still don't know what this kid is capable of and only time will tell. As far as I am concerned he could win RG. but he could also lose some tight match late in tournament QF or SF. I expect him to get at least one clay tournament win before RG. Would like to see more battling between him and Nadal and also how Novak will play against this kid.

I can’t wait to see him on clay. I don’t recall seeing him last year, prior to his meteoric run at the USO, but this should be exciting.

Tsitsipas, Zverev
I don't know what is going on with these 2 guys, they seem like they lost their mojo (if they even had one). Are they going to step up for the clay and embrace the suffering on the dirt? I hope they do, because they can play some really good clay court tennis, even more the greek.

They showed their true selves during their RG & USO finals, up two sets to love, only to lose in 5. I know Medvedev just did the same in Australia, but that was somehow different, playing a Rafa who refused to lose another AO final.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal!™

 

[Jelenafan]

It looks like we can potentially see a Djokovic - Alcaraz QF match at Monte Carlo, I can't wait!

This claycourt season is aligning pretty nicely for Alcaraz. With Rafa, Berrettini and Medvedev gone for the bulk of it with injuries, he's the #8 seed for at least a couple of the Masters tournaments (definitely MC and probably Madrid) which makes it easier to avoid top players in earlier rounds, as well as getting a first round bye.

By the time the French Open rolls around , Alcaraz could very well be seeded 8th or higher, regardless if everyone is back.

My guess is both Berrettini and Medvedev may not be ready by Roland Garros, which means Alcaraz, Ruud, Norrie, Sinner and & FAA may all be battling to get, say the #7 and #8 seeded slots for the French Open. Ruud is currently #7. I dunno, Rublev is currently #8 but he's defending points (like Tsitsipas defending MC and Zverev defending Madrid) so his position is a bit shaky. There is potentially so much movement that if Tsitsipas falters early at MC it could get tricky for him. The up and comers can really make their mark this claycourt season with some good wins.

 

[Moxie]

This claycourt season is aligning pretty nicely for Alcaraz. With Rafa, Berrettini and Medvedev gone for the bulk of it with injuries, he's the #8 seed for at least a couple of the Masters tournaments (definitely MC and probably Madrid) which makes it easier to avoid top players in earlier rounds, as well as getting a first round bye.

By the time the French Open rolls around , Alcaraz could very well be seeded 8th or higher, regardless if everyone is back.

My guess is both Berrettini and Medvedev may not be ready by Roland Garros, which means Alcaraz, Ruud, Norrie, Sinner and & FAA may all be battling to get, say the #7 and #8 seeded slots for the French Open. Ruud is currently #7. I dunno, Rublev is currently #8 but he's defending points (like Tsitsipas defending MC and Zverev defending Madrid) so his position is a bit shaky. There is potentially so much movement that if Tsitsipas falters early at MC it could get tricky for him. The up and comers can really make their mark this claycourt season with some good wins.

Nice job laying out the potential jockeying for seedings during this part of the season, and where the youngsters fall in it. If Zverev and Tsitsipas don't step up to the plate, with Rafa and Medvedev out for now, and Novak on baby-bird legs, at least early-on, then, yes...there's a lot of room for the up-and-comers to get real points, and even if they don't win one of the tune-ups.

 

[tented]

After spotting Feliciano Lopez in the crowd today, I checked his current ranking: 114. He has the record for the most consecutive appearances at a major: 79. He’s one behind Roger for the most appearances: 80.

I don’t think he’ll get direct acceptance into RG ranked 114. I suspect he’ll either need a WC or go through qualifiers to get in and keep the streak alive, no?

 

[tented]

After spotting Feliciano Lopez in the crowd today, I checked his current ranking: 114. He has the record for the most consecutive appearances at a major: 79. He’s one behind Roger for the most appearances: 80.

I don’t think he’ll get direct acceptance into RG ranked 114. I suspect he’ll either need a WC or go through qualifiers to get in and keep the streak alive, no?

He’s not in the singles draw, so that’s it for his run of consecutive major appearances, however it’s a record which won’t be broken for at least 20 years.