CLAY SEASON - General Discussion

[El Dude]

The point of this thread is for general clay season discussion - including any and all specific tournaments, but not limited to any one in particular, with maybe a it of clay history thrown in for good order. Maybe a stickie is in order?

Anyhow, I'm looking forward to the dirt. Not only do I not have to worry about Roger losing, but things get real simple, real fast: cheer for whoever is playing against Rafa .

Seriously, though, here are the dates and reigning champions of clay season tournaments.

April 9: Houston 250 - Steve Johnson
April 9: Marrakech 250 - Borna Coric
April 16: MONTE CARLO MASTERS - RAFAEL NADAL
April 23: Barcelona 500 - Rafael Nadal
April 23: Budapest 250 - Lucas Pouille
April 30: Estoril 250 - Pablo Carreno Busta
April 30: Munich 250 - Alexander Zverev
April 30: Istanbul 250 - Marin Cilic
May 7: MADRID MASTERS - RAFAEL NADAL
May 14: ROME MASTERS - ALEXANDER ZVEREV
May 21: Geneva 250 - Stan Wawrinka
May 21: Lyon 250 - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
MAY 28: FRENCH OPEN - RAFAEL NADAL

 

[El Dude]

Any predictions?

I was surprised to see that Dominic Thiem didn't win anything in clay season last year. If he's healthy, he'll make some noise.

Novak is back, but not really.

I think Chung, Coric, Goffin, Carreno Busta, Schwartzman and Thiem are all dangerous players this clay season. Del Potro might be a bit tired, but will come on strong come May. Hard to imagine Lost Gen stalwarts Dimitrov, Raonic, or Nishikori doing much. Who knows about Stanimal. Kyrgios remains a wildcard, but not as much of a threat on clay, nor is Cilic. Rublev will be a dangerous floater and maybe play spoiler, but not win anything; he'll surge later in the year. Maybe Ferrer and Verdasco sneak in a 250?

Anyhow, it should be an interesting season, with more young guys up and coming, some comebacks, and Rafa less certain than a year ago.

 

[Moxie]

Del Potro has said he's going to play an "abbreviated" clay schedule. Probably wise, but not sure what that means, yet.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Del Potro has said he's going to play an "abbreviated" clay schedule. Probably wise, but not sure what that means, yet.

It probably means Madrid + Rome + RG at the max.

 

[Moxie]

Any predictions?

I was surprised to see that Dominic Thiem didn't win anything in clay season last year. If he's healthy, he'll make some noise.

Novak is back, but not really.

I think Chung, Coric, Goffin, Carreno Busta, Schwartzman and Thiem are all dangerous players this clay season. Del Potro might be a bit tired, but will come on strong come May. Hard to imagine Lost Gen stalwarts Dimitrov, Raonic, or Nishikori doing much. Who knows about Stanimal. Kyrgios remains a wildcard, but not as much of a threat on clay, nor is Cilic. Rublev will be a dangerous floater and maybe play spoiler, but not win anything; he'll surge later in the year. Maybe Ferrer and Verdasco sneak in a 250?

Anyhow, it should be an interesting season, with more young guys up and coming, some comebacks, and Rafa less certain than a year ago.

I don't think PCB or Chung are considered clay players.

 

[mrzz]

A lot of Argentinians playing well. I guess they'll combine to five or more finals. If that lazy son of a b.. Cuevas (which is from Uruguay not Argentina) would work on his fitness, he could be a main factor. He won't so he won't.

Watch out for Fognini the Prima Donna. As much as I would like Rublev to do something, I doubt he will. Kyrgios won't win two matches in the same tournament. Ferrer will make noise again, get to a final at least.

If Thiem is healthy, he is the only single serious threat to Nadal, whose biggest adversary is his own physical condition.

 

[El Dude]

I don't think PCB or Chung are considered clay players.

But they're both playing really well and I don't think are averse to clay, so may do well.

 

[Andy22]

Thiem will make the final of most these events, nadal will stop him from winning them, but might steal one of masters titles if nadal losses. Porto a non factor has not played that well on clay since 09. Not know why they won't just hand Nadal RG title because, no one going to him.

 

[isabelle]

Thiem could be a menace if he wakes up....Delpo is so fragile that nobody can predict what he'll do

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I agree with most of you. Thiem will most probably win a Big Clay title this year. By Big, I mean ATP 1000 or higher. Clay is his favorite surface. He has already won 7 clay titles. His best so far was Rio in 17 which is a 500 event. I also think Fog, despite being a head case, will manage to win a title this clay season due to depleted field.

 

[herios]

@ei am looking forward to see how Nicholas Jarry will develop.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

If you're looking for likely winners on clay you firstly have to take into account if a given guy is a good mover/slider. That's the biggest factor. A certain type of player's physique also helps. I don't need to mention Nadal's physique (strong, muscular, fast legs) is the best.
Contrast that to Delpo: a big guy who must have trouble with fast running & sliding. Top top it up with his tiredness, Delpo IMO wll be a non-factor on clay. Identical with Cilic. I give better chance to e.g. Ferrer: the energiser bunny if he find precision to his shots.
Of course exceptions are possible because said bias is not as large (and Nadal won't be in every tourney to beat them) so even a disadvantaged player may win a satellite tourn like e.g. Cilic in Istanbul last year. But the bias agaist the player of his profile is there.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think JMDP is a non-factor on clay. He may not be a favorite or a contender, but definitely not a non-factor. I distinctly remember that in 2009, when Roger won RG, he faced JMDP there and JMDP was close to eliminating Roger. JMDP has clay chops, it is not that he knows nothing about clay. He has indeed won multiple clay titles. However, this is all old story.

Now, he is a man with multiple surgeries and several years added to his life. But, still I wouldn't characterize him as a non-factor on clay.
In particular, he is surely capable of creating mega upsets on clay, even if he does not end up winning.

 

[Moxie]

@Chris Koziarz & @GameSetAndMath : I think you're both kind of right. It seems to me that Chris is talking about this particular clay season and GSM is talking about in general. JMDP himself has said he's tired, that he's going to play a limited clay season this year, that the clay is hard on his body, and he wants to concentrate on grass. He may start in Madrid, or Rome, and then RG. All 3 are on his calendar, but he's reserving the right to decide when he's more rested. That said, I agree with GSM that you can't say his game doesn't translate to clay, because he's had some success there (4 titles: 2 x Estoril, Stuttgart and Kitzbuhel.) He usually gets named as a potential Spoiler or maybe Dark Horse for the bigger clay titles, though.

 

[El Dude]

I never dream about tennis but had a dream that David Ferrer won the French Open.

 

[Carol]

I never dream about tennis but had a dream that David Ferrer won the French Open.

Maybe this year? Ferru is far to be the same player like he was two or three years ego

 

[Moxie]

I never dream about tennis but had a dream that David Ferrer won the French Open.

That is the oddest thing you've ever posted.

 

[mrzz]

That is the oddest thing you've ever posted.

Not by a long shot

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I never dream about tennis but had a dream that David Ferrer won the French Open.

You are posting this on a day when the person who had a dream was killed.

 

[Moxie]

You are posting this on a day when the person who had a dream was killed.

But that dream is still alive. So I guess Dude's dream has a chance, too. Though rather less likely.