China Open

[DarthFed]

Fog has a lot of game and can cause trouble when on, but he is wayyy too flaky to win against an elite player. He is one of those players where I wouldn't bet on him vs. Rafa if he was up 6-0, 5-0. Good week for him though, hopefully he continues to play well.

 

[isabelle]

Happy to see Richie in semi after his won over Ferrer. Very good match from Richie, hope he can qualify for London

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything. If Nadal is searching for any extra motivation it would be to make sure your opponent never gets up from the canvas. It would be ideal to keep his streak over Djokovic going through to the AO at least.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything.

I think Gasquet and Berdych still have something to say about the final. And, hey, I thought you were the biggest rah-rah for Nadal. Are you pre-excusing Rafa up for a fall? Or just trying to pre-salvage hubris if Rafa doesn't win? Either is really not such a great look.

 

[Kieran]

Ah, you beat me to it, Moxie!

Nadal2005RG above is hedging his bets. The fact is, if Rafa and Novak meet in the final - if! - Rafa is favourite and motivated and we saw his motivation today and yesterday and that wouldn't change for the final.

So a victory for Novak would be well-earned and significant for him...

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything.

I think Gasquet and Berdych still have something to say about the final. And, hey, I thought you were the biggest rah-rah for Nadal. Are you pre-excusing Rafa up for a fall? Or just trying to pre-salvage hubris if Rafa doesn't win? Either is really not such a great look.

Berdych can say what he wants, he ain't winning. Pre-excusing? All my posts are just honest, no ulterior motivates or set-ups. But if you were looking at it that way, then if anything my post hurts Djokovic, because Nadal beating Djokovic would look even worse for Djokovic than ever. Nadal is always the favorite in a match vs Djokovic, but that doesn't mean we can't look at which factors favor Djokovic. I said this was Djokovic's best shot at beating Nadal. And I said Nadal will have less motivation (and energy than ever before). These are facts. But I never said Djokovic would beat Nadal :laydownlaughing

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Ah, you beat me to it, Moxie!

Nadal2005RG above is hedging his bets. The fact is, if Rafa and Novak meet in the final - if! - Rafa is favourite and motivated and we saw his motivation today and yesterday and that wouldn't change for the final.

So a victory for Novak would be well-earned and significant for him...

Even blind freddy can see that Nadal is more motivated to win the semi than the final. See, Nadal reclaims the #1 ranking if he wins the semi. That's the difference between the semi and the final. Whether that reduction in Nadal's motivation is enough for Djokovic to win, is another story.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything.

I think Gasquet and Berdych still have something to say about the final. And, hey, I thought you were the biggest rah-rah for Nadal. Are you pre-excusing Rafa up for a fall? Or just trying to pre-salvage hubris if Rafa doesn't win? Either is really not such a great look.

Berdych can say what he wants, he ain't winning. Pre-excusing? All my posts are just honest, no ulterior motivates or set-ups. But if you were looking at it that way, then if anything my post hurts Djokovic, because Nadal beating Djokovic would look even worse for Djokovic than ever. Nadal is always the favorite in a match vs Djokovic, but that doesn't mean we can't look at which factors favor Djokovic. I said this was Djokovic's best shot at beating Nadal. And I said Nadal will have less motivation (and energy than ever before). These are facts. But I never said Djokovic would beat Nadal :laydownlaughing

As to your points that I bolded above:

1) Your posts seem always designed to down-grade Djokovic, so at least you admit it here; and 2) if you think Nadal is always the favorite to beat Djokovic, I guess you were pulling a Rip Van Winkle in 2011-into 2012; 3) your idea that Nadal will have less motivation and energy than ever before is a supposition, not a fact, however strongly you believe it.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything.

I think Gasquet and Berdych still have something to say about the final. And, hey, I thought you were the biggest rah-rah for Nadal. Are you pre-excusing Rafa up for a fall? Or just trying to pre-salvage hubris if Rafa doesn't win? Either is really not such a great look.

Berdych can say what he wants, he ain't winning. Pre-excusing? All my posts are just honest, no ulterior motivates or set-ups. But if you were looking at it that way, then if anything my post hurts Djokovic, because Nadal beating Djokovic would look even worse for Djokovic than ever. Nadal is always the favorite in a match vs Djokovic, but that doesn't mean we can't look at which factors favor Djokovic. I said this was Djokovic's best shot at beating Nadal. And I said Nadal will have less motivation (and energy than ever before). These are facts. But I never said Djokovic would beat Nadal :laydownlaughing

As to your points that I bolded above:

1) Your posts seem always designed to down-grade Djokovic, so at least you admit it here; and 2) if you think Nadal is always the favorite to beat Djokovic, I guess you were pulling a Rip Van Winkle in 2011-into 2012; 3) your idea that Nadal will have less motivation and energy than ever before is a supposition, not a fact, however strongly you believe it.

I've always considered Nadal the favorite to beat Djokovic, including all of 2011 and AO 2012.

I cannot think of another Nadjokovic meeting where Nadal would have had less motivation/energy, than this one. Winning Montreal, Cincy and US Open back-to-back (and reclaiming the #1 ranking, and with Shanghai Masters coming up), tends to do that. But like I said, I still consider Nadal the favorite to win this here China Open.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ I am not sure about why Nadal would lack motivation. If they both make the final, and if I am Nadal , i would think " Ok, I just got the number 1 spot from this guy, it would be really embarrassing to lose to him at this point.." or something along those lines and give %100. It would suck to lose to a guy who you just passed in the rankings. That's enough motivation, besides being a professional tennis player and playing to win every time you step on the court.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic could not ask for a better shot at beating Nadal, than the China Open, given the fatigue factor (26 hardcourt wins in a row) and given that Nadal will have just won the US Open and taken the top ranking. Nadal will be playing for absolutely nothing but pride, while Djokovic may be a little more motivated because of the ranking exchange. Although surely Djokovic was more motivated at the US Open than here at China. So in the end, it will come down to Nadal's level of motivation (and fatigue) more than anything.

I think Gasquet and Berdych still have something to say about the final. And, hey, I thought you were the biggest rah-rah for Nadal. Are you pre-excusing Rafa up for a fall? Or just trying to pre-salvage hubris if Rafa doesn't win? Either is really not such a great look.

Berdych can say what he wants, he ain't winning. Pre-excusing? All my posts are just honest, no ulterior motivates or set-ups. But if you were looking at it that way, then if anything my post hurts Djokovic, because Nadal beating Djokovic would look even worse for Djokovic than ever. Nadal is always the favorite in a match vs Djokovic, but that doesn't mean we can't look at which factors favor Djokovic. I said this was Djokovic's best shot at beating Nadal. And I said Nadal will have less motivation (and energy than ever before). These are facts. But I never said Djokovic would beat Nadal :laydownlaughing

As to your points that I bolded above:

1) Your posts seem always designed to down-grade Djokovic, so at least you admit it here; and 2) if you think Nadal is always the favorite to beat Djokovic, I guess you were pulling a Rip Van Winkle in 2011-into 2012; 3) your idea that Nadal will have less motivation and energy than ever before is a supposition, not a fact, however strongly you believe it.

I've always considered Nadal the favorite to beat Djokovic, including all of 2011 and AO 2012.

I cannot think of another Nadjokovic meeting where Nadal would have had less motivation/energy, than this one. Winning Montreal, Cincy and US Open back-to-back (and reclaiming the #1 ranking, and with Shanghai Masters coming up), tends to do that. But like I said, I still consider Nadal the favorite to win this here China Open.

I've also always rooted for Nadal over Djokovic, and including 2011-12, but that makes us fans, and cannot be stated as the prevailing wisdom, if you get the distinction.

I CAN actually think of a meeting between them where Nadal possibly had less motivation/energy than this final, if it happens: Cincinnati SF 2008. When Roger lost his QF to Karlovic, and Nadal won his to (I don't remember,) he was guaranteed the #1 ranking. In what was literally the first match Nadal could afford to lose in some 4 months, he lost the next day to Djokovic. Of course, Novak was a much finer HC player than Rafa at that time, but Nadal also could afford to take his foot off the gas, finally.

I realize this is sort of like your argument for Rafa taking his foot off now, and he may. But I will say that his motivation to beat Djokovic is much higher than it was in 2008, so that's a factor. He's also been to #1 before and knows he will get there, so that takes some of the stress off.

In any case, we can't post-game this match until it is actually "post." Let's wait and see how things play out, shall we?

 

[NADAL2005RG]

^ I am not sure about why Nadal would lack motivation. If they both make the final, and if I am Nadal , i would think " Ok, I just got the number 1 spot from this guy, it would be really embarrassing to lose to him at this point.." or something along those lines and give %100. It would suck to lose to a guy who you just passed in the rankings. That's enough motivation, besides being a professional tennis player and playing to win every time you step on the court.

Well for a start, Nadal doesn't seem like the type of person to call a loss "embarrassing", as he constantly reminds us of how difficult each opponent is, let alone the world #2 (the guy who was ranked #1 when they met at Montreal and went to a final set tie-breaker). Certainly no embarrassment. Oh yes, of course Nadal tries to win every time he steps on the court. But that's only conscious motivation.

All players want to win on the conscious level. The motivation I'm talking about is on the subconscious level, and is only called upon when you are extremely tired physically or mentally fatigued. Its what people talk about when they say "digging deep". No amount of thinking can produce that motivation. Its either there or its not. Its the "chip on the shoulder" (the chip Djokovic is about to have on his shoulder). Either way, I think Nadal will win the China Open.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ I am not sure about why Nadal would lack motivation. If they both make the final, and if I am Nadal , i would think " Ok, I just got the number 1 spot from this guy, it would be really embarrassing to lose to him at this point.." or something along those lines and give %100. It would suck to lose to a guy who you just passed in the rankings. That's enough motivation, besides being a professional tennis player and playing to win every time you step on the court.

Well for a start, Nadal doesn't seem like the type of person to call a loss "embarrassing", as he constantly reminds us of how difficult each opponent is, let alone the world #2 (the guy who was ranked #1 when they met at Montreal and went to a final set tie-breaker). Certainly no embarrassment. Oh yes, of course Nadal tries to win every time he steps on the court. But that's only conscious motivation.

All players want to win on the conscious level. The motivation I'm talking about is on the subconscious level, and is only called upon when you are extremely tired physically or mentally fatigued. Its what people talk about when they say "digging deep". No amount of thinking can produce that motivation. Its either there or its not. Its the "chip on the shoulder" (the chip Djokovic is about to have on his shoulder). Either way, I think Nadal will win the China Open.

Of course he would not call it "embarrassing"...He would only think it. He kept saying Roger was the best after every time he kicked his butt, so what he says does not really matter.

Nadal does not even take points off, let alone a game, set, match, or a final against his main rival...He will be motivated, trust me. If he loses, he loses...it will not be because he did not care.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

^ I am not sure about why Nadal would lack motivation. If they both make the final, and if I am Nadal , i would think " Ok, I just got the number 1 spot from this guy, it would be really embarrassing to lose to him at this point.." or something along those lines and give %100. It would suck to lose to a guy who you just passed in the rankings. That's enough motivation, besides being a professional tennis player and playing to win every time you step on the court.

Well for a start, Nadal doesn't seem like the type of person to call a loss "embarrassing", as he constantly reminds us of how difficult each opponent is, let alone the world #2 (the guy who was ranked #1 when they met at Montreal and went to a final set tie-breaker). Certainly no embarrassment. Oh yes, of course Nadal tries to win every time he steps on the court. But that's only conscious motivation.

All players want to win on the conscious level. The motivation I'm talking about is on the subconscious level, and is only called upon when you are extremely tired physically or mentally fatigued. Its what people talk about when they say "digging deep". No amount of thinking can produce that motivation. Its either there or its not. Its the "chip on the shoulder" (the chip Djokovic is about to have on his shoulder). Either way, I think Nadal will win the China Open.

Of course he would not call it "embarrassing"...He would only think it. He kept saying Roger was the best after every time he kicked his butt, so what he says does not really matter.

Nadal does not even take points off, let alone a game, set, match, or a final against his main rival...He will be motivated, trust me. If he loses, he loses...it will not be because he did not care.

Of course, Nadal will always be perhaps the most consciously motivated player on the tour. However, remember when Nadal said in 2011 that he had lost some passion for the game? He was talking about subconscious motivation. He was still trying to win every point, but when he dug deep, the flame wasn't as bright. I doubt Nadal will have that problem again anytime soon, but Djokovic will have an extra chip on the shoulder now that he's lost the US Open and the top ranking.

Djokovic has a little bit more to play for at the China Open final. And you saw Montreal (Nadal won final set tie-breaker).....Its always close, at least for 3 sets. 5 sets is where I think Nadal now has the upper hand more than ever, and that is why I am 100% sure Nadal will beat Djokovic at the 2014 Australian Open. But in particular this best-of-3-set 500 event? You can't expect both players to be at their best physically or mentally.

 

[Didi]

So a victory for Novak would be well-earned and significant for him...

I don't think so to be honest. I can't imagine a possible win/title here for Novak being really significant for his confidence, it won't even be a small consolation prize and for a legend of his stature quite frankly it shouldn't be. We are talking here about an all-time-great who was the top dog in 2011-2012 by a countrymile. His standards have simply changed. Slams and masters - that's where he will need to redeem himself against Nadal. Winning a small 500 event in Beijing might be nice but it really doesn't change anything for him in the bigger picture.

Nole's ship of stopping the bleeding sailed some time ago by losing to Nadal in Paris, Montreal and New York. It might sound harsh but I think deep down Novak knows this. The YEC and Melbourne are the only really significant tournaments left for him in the near future (say next 6 months) where he can start to redeem himself vs. Rafa the way the Spaniard himself did with MC, Rome and Paris in 2012.

 

[Ricardo]

Fog has a lot of game and can cause trouble when on, but he is wayyy too flaky to win against an elite player. He is one of those players where I wouldn't bet on him vs. Rafa if he was up 6-0, 5-0. Good week for him though, hopefully he continues to play well.

Just cannot see how Fog could've lost the match the way he did, i mean even in the second set he had multiple chances to win it 6-0 (yes he had either broken or had break points on all of Rafa's serve till 4-2), and frankly he was playing simply much better tennis - it wasn't even Rafa playing badly, and i couldn't see any way out of it for him TBH yet he still found a way to hang in there... keeping it down to 1 break by escaping from break points time and again, it's quite unbelievable he was able to do so.

I wouldn't attribute it to that Fog simply handed it to him, Fabio was 'trying' but the difference that i was almost foreseeing was that, when he was gonna close the match out, Rafa would maintain his focus and consistency while Fabio would make one more unforced error at a untimely moment, only to come up just a little short. Fabio didn't all of a sudden fall apart, he can play better than Rafa when he's on only he doesn't have the same nerve.... needless to say.

 

[Moxie]

Fog has a lot of game and can cause trouble when on, but he is wayyy too flaky to win against an elite player. He is one of those players where I wouldn't bet on him vs. Rafa if he was up 6-0, 5-0. Good week for him though, hopefully he continues to play well.

Just cannot see how Fog could've lost the match the way he did, i mean even in the second set he had multiple chances to win it 6-0 (yes he had either broken or had break points on all of Rafa's serve till 4-2), and frankly he was playing simply much better tennis - it wasn't even Rafa playing badly, and i couldn't see any way out of it for him TBH yet he still found a way to hang in there... keeping it down to 1 break by escaping from break points time and again, it's quite unbelievable he was able to do so.

I wouldn't attribute it to that Fog simply handed it to him, Fabio was 'trying' but the difference that i was almost foreseeing was that, when he was gonna close the match out, Rafa would maintain his focus and consistency while Fabio would make one more unforced error at a untimely moment, only to come up just a little short. Fabio didn't all of a sudden fall apart, he can play better than Rafa when he's on only he doesn't have the same nerve.... needless to say.

You are absolutely right on every point of that statement. And Fabio didn't "fall apart," and folks shouldn't take that performance away from him by an easy short-hand slight.

A lot comes down to nerve and focus, but there is the also the aspect of Nadal's game that doesn't get enough credit: the effect of the weight of his shot, over time, and the effect of his relentlessness, over time.