Chess

[Federberg]

Wow! He's lost over 20 rating points. What a complete disaster. He is in an epic slump. So Fabiano is now in the driving seat again. Last round of games will be fascinating. Given how Ding is playing it's going to take something special from Sergei to strike back. One would think that only a collapse by Fabi will stop him from closing this out now. This is a huge moment in his career. I'm almost prepared to say right here and now that if he doesn't pull this off it'll be a choke. I'm relieved. I really didn't want to see another Carlsen - Karjakin match. I'll have to go over the games later, had too many meetings this afternoon

 

[DarthFed]

You'll like the Ding-Kram game. I'd be interested to see if either side had notable improvements but another high-octane draw for Ding. Sometimes that's just how things go. Grischuk totally collapsed in time trouble and Levon went from bad to ugly really quick.

 

[Federberg]

Aronian vs So draw
Grischuk vs Caruana draw
Karjakin vs Ding draw
Kramnik vs Mamedyarov Shak

 

[DarthFed]

Aronian - So - draw
Grischuk - Caruana - draw
Karjakin - Ding - really tough to call, both will be desperate to win and I feel like Ding has mostly been the better player despite being a 1/2 point behind. I will go with Ding

Kramnik - Mamed - Kramnik is probably still going to be out for blood and Mamed has owned him bad lately. Going with draw though.

 

[Federberg]

looks like Levon has finally shut it down. Better late than never!

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah, the damage is already done!

 

[DarthFed]

If Mamed and Caruana finish tied they'd play tiebreaks right? And that'd probably favor Mamed. I wonder what happens if it's a three way tie?

 

[DarthFed]

Sergey doesn't have anything really, if anything he's probably a bit worse. It'd be tough for him to make something happen right now but I don't see Caruana losing today so realistically he is going to have to go for the win.

 

[Federberg]

I confess I like his position marginally better than Ding's purely because he has the knight in a closed position. Looks like a potential good knight vs bad bishop scenario. Note that Ding's pawns are mostly on the dark squares. His odd seeming Ra2 is probably trying to provoke b4 with the threat of doubling on the a file, making Ding strategically worse. It's the sort of position I would expect both him and Carlsen to squeeze an advantage out of

 

[Federberg]

If Mamed and Caruana finish tied they'd play tiebreaks right? And that'd probably favor Mamed. I wonder what happens if it's a three way tie?

that might favour Sergei because of tie breaks I think

 

[DarthFed]

I confess I like his position marginally better than Ding's purely because he has the knight in a closed position. Looks like a potential good knight vs bad bishop scenario. Note that Ding's pawns are mostly on the dark squares. His odd seeming Ra2 is probably trying to provoke b4 with the threat of doubling on the a file, making Ding strategically worse. It's the sort of position I would expect both him and Carlsen to squeeze an advantage out of

My post was before Ding pushed b4 which I was surprised by. Now I agree with you though I'd probably say chances are Overwhelming that this is a draw. But with two guys having to play for a win they could overpush.

 

[DarthFed]

Instead of b4 I liked Ra7 preparing Rc7 and Rc8, I feel like the possible push on c4 looked far more dangerous than anything white could cook up on the A file

 

[DarthFed]

Ding opening himself up with g5, I like this guy's cajones the second half of this event. I'd chalk the first half up to him trying to ease his way into this.

 

[DarthFed]

Sergey's horse has found a fine long-term stable at c4

 

[DarthFed]

Vlad has Mame in a bind here, looks like he's threatening Nxg6. Mame is up a pawn but he has problems.

 

[Federberg]

It doesn't look good at all. All Shak's pieces are offside

 

[DarthFed]

Mame's Qd6 does look good but at this point he's probably happy with a draw because any errant move and he might lose quickly.

 

[DarthFed]

Ding's position looking pretty good again, g5 is looking better and better. What do the engines say?

 

[DarthFed]

I played over a couple games from past two rounds:

Ding- Kramnik - despite the fireworks neither side had a big edge, just seemed pretty well played according to the engines.

Karjakin - Caruana - I was WAY wrong on this one. Even before Bxf7 the comps were giving Karjakin a decisive edge despite even material (down an exchange and up two pawns).

 

[DarthFed]

Vlad played Qf3, if Qxc4 he has Rxd5 but not sure what after f5