Brexit

[Horsa]

I think most people were aware it was a rocky ride out. The entire population was leafleted informing them as such even before the referendum.

Still, that doesn't hide the fact that May's negotiating strategy has been little short of disastrous. A Canada++++ was on the table a long time ago according to David Davis and Donald Tusk. Davis wanted to pursue that road and then negotiate to swap in parts of other existing EU trade deals... meaning that a large part of the deal would have been based on previous EU arrangements that had been negotiated before in other agreements... and then negotiate additional elements.

May decided to override the Brexit office, hence all the resignations and follow her own nose, which was largely focusing on a Remain Minus deal. "This is the Brexit I want" she said. Problem is no fucker else did and yet she is still pursuing it... even now.

Yes, the EU want to make this difficult but they won't want a final solution that is punitive to their own members... at least not beyond the short term. It's also going to have a lot of internal issues to deal with on the horizon.

I knew we would be worse off until we got on our feet again.

 

[Horsa]

I don't think we're far apart on much of this, although like you said I think the differences are optimal mitigation and for me, sovereign accountability and transparency. Without the latter you're missing a vital cornerstone of real democracy.

The other big issue for me is where the EU is heading. It's OK voting for Remain and saying Leavers don't know what they voted for (I'm not levelling that at you, more as a general observation of arguments I've heard) but in reality, Remainers don't really know what they are voting for either... the EU is not a static project - it's moving toward a Federal Superstate and all the pillars that go with it. Federal Superstates of different cultures, languages and values are doomed to fail. History tells us this over and over again.

A multi-tiered multi-speed Europe might work but the direction it's currently going won't. The Eurozone will likely implode in its current format (only a matter of time IMO), the EU executives ignorance of local concerns and a growing culture of blaming the EU for everything will permeate into the rise of far left and far right groups all around the continent.

I don't think the EU has been bad for the UK to date. I don't hate the EU, just some of its structures and the direction it's heading. On the contrary, I think from the early 80s through to the GFC was a period where you can say This is as good as it gets... despite people moaning 24/7. But I think we're entering a different time and the UK will be better served by being out than in to deal with it, and to plot its own course.

I don't hate the E.U. I just hate its authoritarian stance & the amount it charges for its services. I believe free trade should mean exactly that. I like what it does or at least I did until it became too authoritarian & I found out how much they charged.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Media is full of jokes on whether USA or UK is more dysfunctional. It looks like they are trying to outdo each other. Meanwhile, Putin thoroughly enjoys all the drama in the western world.

 

[britbox]

Media is full of jokes on whether USA or UK is more dysfunctional. It looks like they are trying to outdo each other. Meanwhile, Putin thoroughly enjoys all the drama in the western world.

Mate, some of these politicians are so divorced from reality and people on the ground it's embarrassing. They are causing massive damage and really don't seem to care beyond their own little political bubbles.

 

[Horsa]

Mate, some of these politicians are so divorced from reality and people on the ground it's embarrassing. They are causing massive damage and really don't seem to care beyond their own little political bubbles.

I agree. Politicians have no ideas about what goes on outside Westminster & what real people have to go through. They also have no idea about what their plans, decisions & declarations of new laws etc. do to normal people & how they affect them.

 

[britbox]

I think if May resolves the backstop issue then she'll probably squeeze out enough votes. If she can't, then it's going to be a very interesting few weeks.

 

[Federberg]

 

[Chris Koziarz]

I'm disgusted at what Tusk said in Dublin (from 1:20):

I wonder why did the idiot say that in Dublin and not anywhere else: Brussels, Warsaw? Are the Irish leaders friends of this overzealous buffoon? Or maybe he feels confident among them because they share his faith? I'm sure he would not dare to say that in London. Coward.
I have most sympathy to people in Belfast. They want the backstop badly but it does not look they may get it. I'm surprised how rude is the behaviour Ch4 reporter towards his guests, especially N Irelanders. E.g. from 10:50, the reporter talks to the deputy leader in Belfast (Michelle O'Neill) and surely introduces her to the audience, but fails to even say "Hi" to her. Instead, he turns around and throws a question-statement: "Tusk words are offensive how do you feel?". What an inconsiderate moron this reporter is! Does he always behave like that towards N Irelanders, even women?
Here's the list of those with the highest score on Tusk's curse:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-place-hell-brexit-promoters-most-likely-burn

 

[Moxie]

 

[Horsa]

Thanks for posting this. I loved this series as a little girl & had a good laugh.

 

[britbox]

Big rumours going around that Olly Robbins (May's Chief EU Negotiator) was heard in a hotel bar implying May was running the clock down and the final vote will be late in the day and basically come down to her deal or a lengthy extension of Article 50. Hard to believe a word that comes out of May's mouth... given her track record in this fiasco.

 

[britbox]

Labour have bled 150,000 members over Brexit apparently. A quarter of their membership.

Not surprising given JC's real views on the EU.

 

[Federberg]

Big rumours going around that Olly Robbins (May's Chief EU Negotiator) was heard in a hotel bar implying May was running the clock down and the final vote will be late in the day and basically come down to her deal or a lengthy extension of Article 50. Hard to believe a word that comes out of May's mouth... given her track record in this fiasco.

from her perspective it's the smart play. Panic the MPs into going with her deal. If it fails she will have to go for an extension and then resign. Allowing a no deal at this point would be political malfeasance

 

[Horsa]

Big rumours going around that Olly Robbins (May's Chief EU Negotiator) was heard in a hotel bar implying May was running the clock down and the final vote will be late in the day and basically come down to her deal or a lengthy extension of Article 50. Hard to believe a word that comes out of May's mouth... given her track record in this fiasco.

Tell me about it. They're making a mess of the whole affair & we'd be better off in how they're managing things. I'm sick of all the delays & u-turns which are causing more uncertainty which isn't good. They could have got the ball rolling & planned out what was going to be done way before now. They've got to get us out though because the people voted & if they don't do what the people wanted a lot of people will say there's no proper democracy in Britain which is what I'm thinking right now. If I'd have known all this was going to happen I wouldn't have voted. We didn't vote for this & I'll never vote again. I feel very guilty about this because I know lots of women like Emily Davison & Emmeline Pankhurst fought very hard to get women like me the vote but I think that although our voice has been heard it isn't being listened to.

 

[Horsa]

Labour have bled 150,000 members over Brexit apparently. A quarter of their membership.

Not surprising given JC's real views on the EU.

I don't like him for a different reason. If I'd have been a member of the Labour party I'd have left ages back when he became leader & I found out who he really was.

 

[britbox]

from her perspective it's the smart play. Panic the MPs into going with her deal. If it fails she will have to go for an extension and then resign. Allowing a no deal at this point would be political malfeasance

I can't see her carrying it. Highly doubtful the bulk of the ERG and the DUP are going to roll with the backstop unless it's time-limited.

It's not actually a big concession at the EU end and would likely get Brexit over the line. If she was serious about a no-deal then I think the EU would concede that point at the eleventh hour... but she's not. I think there are forces in motion within the house to prevent a no-deal without a vote. Seems likely that Bercow is in on it.

If they think an Article 50 extension is on the table, the EU will just keep playing the game until Brexit withers away and ultimately the UK remains in the EU (albeit with a damaged reputation within the EU and a hugely damaged reputation with its own electorate)... this will be the case even if a second referendum is the final nail in the coffin.

 

[Federberg]

I can't see her carrying it. Highly doubtful the bulk of the ERG and the DUP are going to roll with the backstop unless it's time-limited.

It's not actually a big concession at the EU end and would likely get Brexit over the line. If she was serious about a no-deal then I think the EU would concede that point at the eleventh hour... but she's not. I think there are forces in motion within the house to prevent a no-deal without a vote. Seems likely that Bercow is in on it.

If they think an Article 50 extension is on the table, the EU will just keep playing the game until Brexit withers away and ultimately the UK remains in the EU (albeit with a damaged reputation within the EU and a hugely damaged reputation with its own electorate)... this will be the case even if a second referendum is the final nail in the coffin.

I'm not saying she'll succeed, although she stands a good chance - this is TARP all over again. But it was her best plan to get policy through

 

[britbox]

I'm not saying she'll succeed, although she stands a good chance - this is TARP all over again. But it was her best plan to get policy through

I think she'll need a hand from Labour. DUP won't vote for it without a legally binding time limit on the backstop. I don't think the majority of the ERG will either. It's an easy concession for the EU... just give the backstop a 5 year limit in the event a permanent trade deal can't be reached within that timeframe and then the option of a unilateral withdrawal from it.

EU won't offer that up until the 11th hour though. They don't need to. I think they will if it comes to it and the alternative is a no-deal Brexit... but they don't need to blink first... unless it's 11.59 pm on the day before.

 

[Federberg]

giddy up! May defeated... again. What does she do now?

 

[Horsa]

giddy up! May defeated... again. What does she do now?

Knowing her, probably rethink, do a U-turn & try to get people on her side again.