Breakthrough Watch Thread

El Dude

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The basic idea of this thread is to look for, and discuss, any players that seem to be stepping up a notch--on whatever level, age, and degree. In other words it isn't only "young guns" (although often/usually will be), nor does it have to be a major breakout or even a potential future elite.

Over the last couple years a lot has been spoken about Borna Coric, Alex Zverev, Nick Kyrgios, Taylor Fritz, and Dominic Thiem--and more recently this year, Lucas Pouille--but we tend to talk about these guys after they make a big leap. I'd also like to look for those players who seem just on the cusp of a big leap.

Several players come to mind:

19-year old Jared Donaldson, who turns 20 in October and is thus about a month older than Borna Coric and a year older than Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev, and half a year older than Alex Zverev, just had the biggest win of his career, I'd say, upsetting David Goffin at the US Open. Donaldson has been stuck in "Quali-Challenger Limbo" for quite some time, having won his first and only Challenger title back in January of 2015 and jumping to #178 (from #251). It looked like the then-18-year old was about to start rising quickly. But he has bounced around in the 140ish to 180ish range for over a year and a half, and he looked truly stagnant.

But Donaldson's recent performance shows signs of a legit breakthrough, including defeats of ATP veterans like Fabio Fognini at the Rogers Cup and Nicolas Almagro at the Cincinnati Masters. Beating #14 Goffin at the US Open is his biggest win yet, and pushes him on the cusp of the top 100 in the live rankings (#104). While I don't expect Donaldson to be an elite player, he does seem like he has a very good chance of ending the year well into the top 100, which will also provide him with direct entry into Grand Slams. 2017 could be a big year for him.

Similarly ranked and aged Karen Khachanov, who turned 20 in May, has also been playing well of late, including a live ranking of #78, after his first round win at the US Open. Khachanov's rise has been slow and steady. After winning five Futures in late 2014 and early 2015, he broke into the top 200 in July of 2015, continuing his rise and winning two Challengers before reaching the top 100 in June of this year. Like Donaldson, he's unlikely to be an elite but he does seem like a good candidate to continue to rise for the next year or two. Whether he stabilizes as a top 20-30 type or reaches the top 10 remains to be seen.

A third that should be mentioned is Kyle Edmund. He turned 21 in January so is a bit older. He reached the top 100 a year ago and has been stuck in the 80ish-100ish range since, but he could be ready to make another jump.

All three are candidates to "do a Pouille" next year (who "did a Thiem" this year). Pouille finished 2015 at #78 and is currently #25, so in 2016 so far went from being a fringe top 100 player to seeded at Slams. I'm not sure if those three will be seeded a year from now, but they all bear watching.
 

El Dude

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Edmund won today, beating wildcard Escobedo. He's into the third round and now up to #64 in the live rankings.
 

secrettennisjunkie

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Don't forget that Khachanov won 3 of his 1st 4 ATP matches, all vs top 100 players, at age 17 in 2013 at St Petersburg and Moscow.
 

El Dude

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He's holding his own against Kei today.
 

El Dude

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Khachanov loses but Donaldson about to beat Troicki, which would put him in the lower 90s in the live rankings. So he's essentially assured a top 100 ranking - becoming the fourth teenager in the top 100.
 

herios

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Not a young player, but Daniel Evans qualifies in spades for a breakthrough season.
 

GameSetAndMath

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herios said:
Not a young player, but Daniel Evans qualifies in spades for a breakthrough season.

SO, what next? Add P. Lorenzi to breakthrough watch list as he defeated Simon today. :rolleyes::lolz::laydownlaughing
 

herios

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GameSetAndMath said:
herios said:
Not a young player, but Daniel Evans qualifies in spades for a breakthrough season.

SO, what next? Add P. Lorenzi to breakthrough watch list as he defeated Simon today. :rolleyes::lolz::laydownlaughing

Read the thread meaning dude. it is for ANY player at ANY AGE. You are tired, you should go to sleep now.;)
 

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Solid win for Donaldson, and a winnable match against Karlovic next. We'll see if he can do anything next fall but the important thing is now he'll have direct entry into the AO.
 

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Khachanov needs to develop when the right time to come to the net, when hes got his opponent on the ropes. So many times he had Kei on the back foot but allowed him to remain in the point because he didn't close the point off

One for the future, that's for sure. He was serving some right bombs at time and the rain break clearly had an affect on his performance.
 

herios

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Just heard that Daniel Evans was ranked 772 in May 2015 and now he is a top 60. If that is not a lift-off, I do not know what it is.
 

El Dude

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That's awesome - good for him. As I said in another thread, we tend to put so much focus on the top players that we miss all of the interesting action outside of the elite.
 

herios

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El Dude said:
That's awesome - good for him. As I said in another thread, we tend to put so much focus on the top players that we miss all of the interesting action outside of the elite.

Apparently, he is a player who was not serious enough early on in his career. He has committed himself more about 18 months ago. That kind of explains the sudden sharp rise.
 

sid

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herios said:
Just heard that Daniel Evans was ranked 772 in May 2015 and now he is a top 60. If that is not a lift-off, I do not know what it is.

Evans leads 2-1 in sets v Stan Wow,still think Stan will win but Evans is giving his all.:clap:clap:clap
 

El Dude

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herios said:
El Dude said:
That's awesome - good for him. As I said in another thread, we tend to put so much focus on the top players that we miss all of the interesting action outside of the elite.

Apparently, he is a player who was not serious enough early on in his career. He has committed himself more about 18 months ago. That kind of explains the sudden sharp rise.

Well I'm hoping he does well - he's a good story. I have no idea how far he can rise, but right now he looks like he could be a legit top 20 type. At the least he--and Kyle Edmund--have changed British men's tennis from "Andy Murray and a bunch of nothing."

Actually, in general the English-speaking tennis world has had a boost in recent years with some interesting and emergent players:

UK: Edmund and Evans, and of course Andy's first Slam win in 2012 and continued excellence and rise up the list of all-time greats
Canada: Milos is a legit threat, and then you have two very promising prospects in Shapovalov and Aliassime
USA: Sock is a fun, if good-but-not-great player, seems to be a Mardy Fish type; but there are some good prospects in Fritz and Tiafoe, and Donaldson's breakthrough
Australia: Kyrgios is a legit if erratic threat; even Tomic stabilizing as at least a top 20 player; Thanasi Kokkinakis?

Now if only we can get the Ymer brothers to breakthrough and bring Sweden back to relevance...and of course it would nice to see something, anything on the Spanish horizon, but I don't see it...
 

GameSetAndMath

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You want a guy with real breakthrough? That would be Luca Pouille. What a match? What a mental courage shown by this young fellow? :clap
 

herios

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GameSetAndMath said:
You want a guy with real breakthrough? That would be Luca Pouille. What a match? What a mental courage shown by this young fellow? :clap

He was jaw dropping at times. And this really came out of nowhere.
Yes he improved quite some this year, but to be able to this this type of performance against Nadal at the USO is a whole different story.
 

Kieran

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Contrast Lucas with Nick... :cover
 

10isfan

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I am glad I saw this live. Ashe was erupting over the drama of Nadal vs Pouille. Both deserve a ton of credit for their performance. I didn't think Pouille could close out the match, especially when his serve during the TB missed the box by yards. He proved he has the mental makeup to win big.
 

El Dude

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Lucas is legit. He now gives us three younger players in the top 20, along with Thiem and Kyrgios. Hopefully Zverev and Fritz will join them next year.

Kieran, don't give up on Kyrgios yet. He's just young, dumb and full of...well, you know the quote. But yeah, he has such a terrible attitude and is just so unlikable. But the talent is real. While 2016 was a bit disappointing for him, he still won a couple titles and rose up the rankings.