Brazil Open - São Paulo, Brazil - ATP 250

[herios]

I think Thiem wins his first clay Masters this year. I mean, its gotta happen sometime.

I remember Garin's name from when I first started following the young players really closely, I think back in 2013. Someone on this forum (in one of its older incarnations) was high on him. Anyhow, he didn't do anything for a few years and only really started moving last year. A late bloomer, evidently - he's going to be 23 in May. That sort of late blooming implies a limited ceiling.

Garin's promoter was @JesuslookslikeBorg who is fond of youngsters in general.
Garin won RG boys title several years ago, after that he has struggled for a few years on the Challenger tour.
I agree with you as far as his potential, if he has a career like Montanes, with a few small titles under his belt I would not be surprised, but anything more than that, I would be.

 

[El Dude]

Garin's promoter was @JesuslookslikeBorg who is fond of youngsters in general..
Garin won RG boys title several years ago, after that he has struggled for a few years on the Challenger tour.
I agree with you as far as his potential, if he has a career like Montanes, with a few small titles under his belt I would not be surprised, but anything more than that, I would be.

That could be interpreted in a variety of ways.

 

[herios]

That could be interpreted in a variety of ways.

You know very well what I meant.

 

[Moxie]

Of course. And new precedents can and do occur. But the point of looking at precendents is not to say what can and cannot happen, but what is likely to happen. The later the blooming, the more limited ceiling - as a general but not absolute rule.

Sure, but we're also talking about the difference between 5-20 Majors, and 2 or 3, which is a whole great career, in and of itself. Stan has shown us that you can start late and win 3. Not everyone will, and I'm saying that the eye test doesn't tell me that Garin is a great in any way. On the other hand, as @Federberg mentioned recently on another thread, there's going to be a whole scrum for winning Majors when Roger, Rafa and Novak tap out. That won't happen all at once, but I think it's going to happen kinda fast, once it does. Already we see younger players positioning themselves, and making their name. Unless a few rise to the top and take over the mantle of dominance, a lot of players may win one Slam, here and there. I suspect this option, as in the 90's and early 2000s, when a lot of players won 1, and got their short time at #1.

 

[El Dude]

Sure, but we're also talking about the difference between 5-20 Majors, and 2 or 3, which is a whole great career, in and of itself. Stan has shown us that you can start late and win 3. Not everyone will, and I'm saying that the eye test doesn't tell me that Garin is a great in any way. On the other hand, as @Federberg mentioned recently on another thread, there's going to be a whole scrum for winning Majors when Roger, Rafa and Novak tap out. That won't happen all at once, but I think it's going to happen kinda fast, once it does. Already we see younger players positioning themselves, and making their name. Unless a few rise to the top and take over the mantle of dominance, a lot of players may win one Slam, here and there. I suspect this option, as in the 90's and early 2000s, when a lot of players won 1, and got their short time at #1.

Yes, I feel similarly and have been predicting a late 90s-early 00s "Wild West" scenario for years now. Still waiting...

While the Trio are still dominating the Slams, their reign over the other big titles is starting to erode the last couple years; I expect that will quicken and eventually someone will break the glass ceiling and take a Slam, which will open the flood-gates. Maybe this year, but if not, then I think next. By 2021 I suspect the Trio will be hard-pressed to win more than a Slam or two between them, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the last year one of them won a Slam. Something like this:

2019: Trio win 3-4 Slams
2020: Trio win 2-3 Slams
2021: Trio win 1-2 Slams
2022: Trio win 0-1 Slam

That means I'm predicting 6-10 more for the three of them. 0-2 for Roger, 1-4 for Rafa, 2-6 for Novak.

Of NextGen, I would guess that several guys will win multiple Slams, with a bunch of single Slam winners, and then someone eventually emerging to be leader of the pack (Tsitsipas? FAA??). Players like Kyrigos and Shapovalov could go Slamless their entire careers, or could win three or more. Zverev and Tsitsipas seem like the best bets to win multiple Slams. There are a dozen players that I could see sneaking in a Slam. In the end, there are limited slots and we might have a scenario where one guy goes Slamless but has a better overall career than another guy who wins a Slam.

I like the fact it is all so unknown and difficult to predict. Lots of different scenarios that could play out.

 

[herios]

Before starting to hype Garin suddenly, let's see if he can win this event.
I favor Pella to grab the title, because it is 3:0 in their H2H for the Argentine, all on clay

 

[Moxie]

Before starting to hype Garin suddenly, let's see if he can win this event.
I favor Pella to grab the title, because it is 3:0 in their H2H for the Argentine, all on clay

To be clear, I wasn't hyping him, and I said I don't really see him as an elite player. Then El Dude and I got into a more general conversation about benchmarks for winning big. I was really just noting that he was being to come through, since he was one we'd been looking at since he was about 16. I'll be surprised if he wins today.

 

[herios]

Pella pulls it off in 2 sets. First title for the Argentine.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Therefore yet another new unheralded player will clinch his first trophy tomorrow.

Isn't this usually the case in this tourney, considering that all established players will be either at Dubai or Acapulco as these two
are 500s and also as these are giving them practice on hardcourts just before IW.

 

[herios]

Isn't this usually the case in this tourney, considering that all established players will be either at Dubai or Acapulco as these two
are 500s and also as these are giving them practice on hardcourts just before IW.

Not really. Fognini won last year and before him, Cuevas 3 times in a row.
We have to go back 5 years to find a player who won here his maiden title, it was Delbonis in 2014.
So that is 20% of the cases.

 

[mrzz]

^^This year they knew I wasn't there to watch so most top guys skipped it and did not bother to try hard to win it. Pella shoud thank me.

I think Thiem wins his first clay Masters this year. I mean, its gotta happen sometime.

I really would like to see that happening, and I would co-sign that back in early January, but I catched two Thiem's matches this year (on clay) and he is at least two levels below his usual self. I do not know if it is injury related but it wasn't pretty. Really hope I am wrong but right now I don't think he would even makes a masters semi, let alone win one...

 

[El Dude]

I really would like to see that happening, and I would co-sign that back in early January, but I catched two Thiem's matches this year (on clay) and he is at least two levels below his usual self. I do not know if it is injury related but it wasn't pretty. Really hope I am wrong but right now I don't think he would even makes a masters semi, let alone win one...

That's unfortunate to hear.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

garin 1st main draw major was wimbledon i think..ironic seeing as his challenger exploits are almost all on clay