Brain Game: Roger's New Rafa Tactics

Front242

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He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
 

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We should wait to see the draw. It wouldn't surprise me if it came to an end but that streak is overrated anyways because the QF is not some kind of deep run for any great player. It's usually 2-3 nobodies and then 1-2 decent players in the way. And that will likely hold true for this draw.

There won't be anyone who can wax his shoes in the 1st 4 rounds at any major if he remembers who he is, but as Herios said...he has never looked shakier heading into a slam. And this is clay where an early loss is way more likely than at the other slams just due to how inconsistent he can be from the baseline. And depending on the draw (ie if it is very hard like Berd in QF and Rafa in SF) I seriously wonder if he will be looking ahead to Wimbledon. Truthfully in that scenario he probably should.
 

herios

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Front242 said:
He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
actually, in the best of 5 i don't see him well, if he is streched to five sets by a younger player. Usually in the 5th set, his play goes south alomg with his energy level.
 

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herios said:
Front242 said:
He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
actually, in the best of 5 i don't see him well, if he is streched to five sets by a younger player. Usually in the 5th set, his play goes south alomg with his energy level.

Against someone of the caliber of the top 4-6 yes but other than that I can't see fatigue losing it for him to anyone outside those players personally. He's too proud to shank it up that badly before meeting truly decent players. That said if he meets Tommy Haas or Gulbis he has his work cut out. I think he'd beat Dimitrov who still seems a bit up and down.
 

Johnsteinbeck

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^ i think one takeaway from last week is that while he's been sharper than in spring, fatigue Is an issue. you could basically watch him deteriorate as the week progressed in Rome, just by looking at the serving quality (where the effect of the opponent isn't that big). not even talking about the Rafa match, the difference from his serves against JJ compared to those against Paire showed it all. the upside will be the rest days.

remember, at the AO, it wasn't being pushed to (a quick) five by Tsonga that was a problem, it was doing it again so soon v Murray (of course, he had no business even being in the fifth, as that was just Murray's incompetence in closing it out; that said, it was that fifth when we saw him so unbelievably tired/empty).

so the other thing is fatigue within one match. and for that, looking at the early rounds, i think you're right in that still only a handful of players can trouble him, as he'll have plenty of time to rest between matches in the first week. against someone like Dimitrov or JJ, i'd imagine Fed knowing how to weather the storm and tire them out (Jerzy for example looked as if he was gonna have a heart attack if their Rome match had gone to just three sets, let alone five).
 

herios

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Front242 said:
herios said:
Front242 said:
He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
actually, in the best of 5 i don't see him well, if he is streched to five sets by a younger player. Usually in the 5th set, his play goes south alomg with his energy level.

Against someone of the caliber of the top 4-6 yes but other than that I can't see fatigue losing it for him to anyone outside those players personally. He's too proud to shank it up that badly before meeting truly decent players. That said if he meets Tommy Haas or Gulbis he has his work cut out. I think he'd beat Dimitrov who still seems a bit up and down.

Add to that list my friend...Benneateau is not ranked in the top 6, neither 20, still seems that he is at his best when he plays Roger and the 2 are attracted like magmets when draws are made.
 

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herios said:
Front242 said:
herios said:
Front242 said:
He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
actually, in the best of 5 i don't see him well, if he is streched to five sets by a younger player. Usually in the 5th set, his play goes south alomg with his energy level.

Against someone of the caliber of the top 4-6 yes but other than that I can't see fatigue losing it for him to anyone outside those players personally. He's too proud to shank it up that badly before meeting truly decent players. That said if he meets Tommy Haas or Gulbis he has his work cut out. I think he'd beat Dimitrov who still seems a bit up and down.

Add to that list my friend...Benneateau is not ranked in the top 6, neither 20, still seems that he is at his best when he plays Roger and the 2 are attracted like magmets when draws are made.

He sure does and seems to play well at home. I hope he somehow avoids him as that's a dodgy matchup for sure of late.
 

herios

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Front242 said:
herios said:
Front242 said:
herios said:
Front242 said:
He's played some crap matches of late, that's for sure but aside from the Rome final (dodgy execution of different tactics, whatever, he was just crap and Nadal was great) last week was much better. If the men's slams were best of 3 like WTA I'd say yes there's a high chance of him losing early with another poor loss like the one to Nishikori but in best of 5 he's got enough time to iron out the slop and pick his act up.
actually, in the best of 5 i don't see him well, if he is streched to five sets by a younger player. Usually in the 5th set, his play goes south alomg with his energy level.

Against someone of the caliber of the top 4-6 yes but other than that I can't see fatigue losing it for him to anyone outside those players personally. He's too proud to shank it up that badly before meeting truly decent players. That said if he meets Tommy Haas or Gulbis he has his work cut out. I think he'd beat Dimitrov who still seems a bit up and down.

Add to that list my friend...Benneateau is not ranked in the top 6, neither 20, still seems that he is at his best when he plays Roger and the 2 are attracted like magmets when draws are made.

He sure does and seems to play well at home. I hope he somehow avoids him as that's a dodgy matchup for sure of late.

He didn't...once again, they could meet in R3. What the heck?
 

Johnsteinbeck

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^ i wouldn't worry. as I said with Djokovic, Fed will be all the sharper for it, knowing what to expect. he can't possibly play as crap as he did back at their last match as well. remember what happened after the Wimbledon scare? he bounced back rather nicely. also, i don't think clay is Benneteau's strongest surface lately (although he did win the doubles in MC, but that's another sport).

long story short - as much as i love that guy, i'd be quite surprised if Julien managed to severely trouble Fed.
 

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Besides Tsonga most French players do poorly at RG but Benneteau always seems to bring his best against Fed. We'll see. Could still be a dodgy one for Fed unless he comes out razor sharp.
 

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actually, Julien also has posted rather respectable results at RG. had his best ever slam showing there (QF in '06. although he had the luck of being in Andy Roddick's section of the draw back then, so he didn't face a top ten player on his way there).
 

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johnsteinbeck said:
actually, Julien also has posted rather respectable results at RG. had his best ever slam showing there (QF in '06. although he had the luck of being in Andy Roddick's section of the draw back then, so he didn't face a top ten player on his way there).

Didn't realize that. But as you say, Roddick's section isn't that tough on clay lol. It's a true shock and shame that Benneteau has never won a title at ATP level. Lost in quite a few finals.
 

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Haelfix said:
tented said:
Does this article make sense to anyone?

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/05/21/Brain-Game-Rome-Federer-Nadal.aspx

The end of the second paragraph immediately caught my attention:

"... it was definitely a step in the right direction in trying to battle Nadal on clay on his terms."

The beginning of the third paragraph is also perplexing.

I don't really agree. We've seen Federer being too aggressive in recent years against the top players and its caused some really lopsided scores. (See RG 2008 vs Nadal, RG 2012 vs Novak and Olympics vs Murray). Its really easy to simply UE yourself right out of a match, by going for broke. Yes every once and awhile it creates an upset, but I don't feel like Rafa and Roger's level is that far apart that he has to redline his game so early in a match.

In some sense you give the match away before you even get a chance to fight for it.

It's worth comparing this to his early years in 03-04. People will say oh he was so aggressive back then, look at the pace of his groundstrokes on the tape, look how much more he S/Ved. But note, while it looks like he's being very aggressive in those matches, you'll note just how few errors he'd make per match. This was because he was playing within himself.
But more crucially, the thing that was really making it 'appear' like it was so aggressive, wasn't so much that he was going for huge 100mph shots willy nilly, but rather b/c his movement was helping shorten points.

Instead of taking huge Safin like cuts at the ball, Federer could achieve the same result by taking strong motions into the court (typically off the fh side) and cutting the ball off really early in its trajectory. B/c of the great athleticism, he was able to get there before almost anyone else. This is the source of his success. Plenty of guys on tour hit the ball flatter, harder or with more spin. But almost no one hits the ball that early, while still being able to hit relatively hard (90mph instead of 100 mph) and with that type of accuracy and consistency.

His problem with Nadal (which is mostly absent indoors) is that when he tries to do that, he can't quite control the balls bounce and what happens next (either from the fh or bh really). This really takes away his great advantage, and explains why he looks as ordinary as a David Ferrer at times.

Now, its worth noting that Dimitrov played Rafa really tough by hitting the ball well behind the baseline. Instead of trying to take it early, he would simply say, ok you have to beat me, I won't let you make me overhit or try to control something I cannot.

I like that approach. Not b/c I think that it will make things better, but rather it's more relaxed and less frantic. It also allows you to gradually make adjustements to perhaps move in a bit more. Increase the confidence slowly as you get used to the highly idiosyncratic pace and depth of Nadal's ground strokes. Instead of, oh lets just Kamikaze the net on clay against the game's greatest defender and passer...

A lot of times, it seems like Roger doesn't even make use of his great defense against Rafa. He simply gets too frantic and picks the wrong shot and errors himself off the court. He forgets that one of Rafa's weaknesses at times, is that he has difficulty finishing points as his spin allows fast players time to catch up to it. Novak for instance has won hundreds of points this way, and it visibly gets in Rafa's mind.

Yes Nadal is ultimately a better claycourter, and at some point you have to roll the dice with some chancey shots and some redlining. But you can do that at the tail end of sets, rather than simply giving the match away after game 1.




This post by Haelfix beautifully lays out all of the misconceptions about "realistic" and "well-balanced" tennis that has Roger Federer sitting at 2-14 in his H2H with Nadal on clay.

Haelfix, I am sure that Federer heard every one of your pieces of advice in the last 10 years. And it all paid off. The only two wins came because Nadal was exhausted. LOL
 

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Agree with Halfax, Nadal is a better clay courter than Fed, but he is not 6-1 6-3 and 6-0 better. When a score like that occurs, Fed clearly has some tactic/mental issues. With his serve/fh combo, he should at least hold some serves instead of getting 'bagelled'. Cali, in your opinion Fed doesn't even get credit for his two wins yet Nalby gets credit for his losses against Nadal, can't really agree with this logic.
 

calitennis127

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ricardo said:
Agree with Halfax, Nadal is a better clay courter than Fed, but he is not 6-1 6-3 and 6-0 better. When a score like that occurs, Fed clearly has some tactic/mental issues. With his serve/fh combo, he should at least hold some serves instead of getting 'bagelled'. Cali, in your opinion Fed doesn't even get credit for his two wins yet Nalby gets credit for his losses against Nadal, can't really agree with this logic.



Actually, if you had read many of my posts in the past, you will see that I have credited Federer for much of what he has done against Nadal over the years on clay. To have hit so many winners and controlled so many points as he did but to have still lost 14 out of 16 tells you his emphasis strategy-wise was off.