Bodo: Wawrinka the biggest threat to the reign of Novak Djokovic

[calitennis127]

Nole is 11:8 in slam finals (19), which is tied for 3rd in the open era with Ivan Lendl. He has been to every slam final at least 3 times, joining Nadal and Federer (5) as the only players to do so.

4 losses to Nadal, 2 to Murray, 1 to Roger and 1 to Stan, I don't think those are bad. These losses were all caused by his opponents playing extremely well and Nole underperforming in some of them, which is understandable. 2 losses at USO (in 2010 and 2013) came when Nadal was his absolute best in NYC, and 2 FO losses were expected. 2 losses to Murray came after brutal tournaments for Nole so that helped Murray a bit. Obviously Wawrinka was playing lights out last year. The lone loss to Federer came in 2007 when Nole just made his first grand slam final.

I think you are understating just how poorly Djokovic has risen to the occasion in Slam finals. In particular, the 2013 loss at the US Open to Nadal, the 2014 French Open loss to Nadal, and the 2015 loss to Wawrinka at the French stand out as complete choke jobs.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Nole is 11:8 in slam finals (19), which is tied for 3rd in the open era with Ivan Lendl. He has been to every slam final at least 3 times, joining Nadal and Federer (5) as the only players to do so.

4 losses to Nadal, 2 to Murray, 1 to Roger and 1 to Stan, I don't think those are bad. These losses were all caused by his opponents playing extremely well and Nole underperforming in some of them, which is understandable. 2 losses at USO (in 2010 and 2013) came when Nadal was his absolute best in NYC, and 2 FO losses were expected. 2 losses to Murray came after brutal tournaments for Nole so that helped Murray a bit. Obviously Wawrinka was playing lights out last year. The lone loss to Federer came in 2007 when Nole just made his first grand slam final.

Thanks Billie. I guess I was comparing it to Sampras who was 14:5 and I think Rafa is 14:5 too. I don't know about Federer.

 

[Ricardo]

I think you are understating just how poorly Djokovic has risen to the occasion in Slam finals. In particular, the 2013 loss at the US Open to Nadal, the 2014 French Open loss to Nadal, and the 2015 loss to Wawrinka at the French stand out as complete choke jobs.

all these matches except 2014 RG, he was outplayed so it wasn't like he was winning to qualify as 'choking'. Especially against Wawrinka who basically hit him off the court, and he was playing as well as he could.

 

[shawnbm]

Nole is 11:8 in slam finals (19), which is tied for 3rd in the open era with Ivan Lendl. He has been to every slam final at least 3 times, joining Nadal and Federer (5) as the only players to do so.

4 losses to Nadal, 2 to Murray, 1 to Roger and 1 to Stan, I don't think those are bad. These losses were all caused by his opponents playing extremely well and Nole underperforming in some of them, which is understandable. 2 losses at USO (in 2010 and 2013) came when Nadal was his absolute best in NYC, and 2 FO losses were expected. 2 losses to Murray came after brutal tournaments for Nole so that helped Murray a bit. Obviously Wawrinka was playing lights out last year. The lone loss to Federer came in 2007 when Nole just made his first grand slam final.

Actually, I believe he is now 12-8 in major finals after Paris. Only Nadal and Federer have been to so many major finals. I think Rafa sits on 20 finals and Roger is at 26, right?

 

[Federberg]

^wasn't Lendl in a crazy number of finals as well?

 

[Carol]

Wawrinka ........what?

 

[DarthFed]

Actually, I believe he is now 12-8 in major finals after Paris. Only Nadal and Federer have been to so many major finals. I think Rafa sits on 20 finals and Roger is at 26, right?

Roger has been to 27.

 

[shawnbm]

And I think Lendl is 8-11 so he's been to 21

 

[DarthFed]

Check the math my friend

 

[shawnbm]

LOL--19. Good Lord I am getting old to screw that up. At any rate, I did not realize Roger has been in 27 major finals. Since he won his first 7 major finals, that means he has gone to 20 finals since the 2006 French Open (or in one decade) and has won 10 and lost 10.

 

[britbox]

I'd be happy with one more win for the Gipper shawn... but time is running out.

 

[DarthFed]

^ I think last year's Wimbledon Final was realistically the last call. He wins the 1st set like he should have and who knows what happens. All I do know is that there is absolutely no way he can beat Novak in a slam at this point if he loses the 1st set.

If this was a normal year where he wasn't hurt for much of it I'd say he'd have a chance at this Wimbledon but it's going to be quite the effort after what's happened. A key will be how he does in these two tournaments, specifically how many matches he plays. Obviously it'd be great if he won both and got 9 matches in but even if he wins 1 and gets 8 matches that'd be good.

 

[Federberg]

^I fear you're right, but I hope you're wrong. I still remember Sampras coming from nowhere and getting one more. We can never under-estimate these champions

 

[DarthFed]

^ That's true. Sampras caught a lot of breaks that year from playing a nobody in the semis to then facing Agassi instead of Hewitt in the finals. It's tough to picture the stars aligning quite that well but Roger doesn't need that much help if he is ready to go.

 

[Ricardo]

^ I think last year's Wimbledon Final was realistically the last call. He wins the 1st set like he should have and who knows what happens. All I do know is that there is absolutely no way he can beat Novak in a slam at this point if he loses the 1st set.

If this was a normal year where he wasn't hurt for much of it I'd say he'd have a chance at this Wimbledon but it's going to be quite the effort after what's happened. A key will be how he does in these two tournaments, specifically how many matches he plays. Obviously it'd be great if he won both and got 9 matches in but even if he wins 1 and gets 8 matches that'd be good.

there should be a big question mark on his recovery from injury, something he is not really telling. It would've taken something big for him to sit out a slam.

 

[isabelle]

Stan hired Krajicek for grass season

 

[shawnbm]

Time to resurrect this post--Bodo is not my favorite of writers (and I have not read his article), but to the extent he may argue that Stanislas is teh toughest out for Novak on the big stage, I have agreed with that thought since the 2014 AO. I was thinking Stanislas could beat him in Paris because of his game and apparent lack of fear of playing Novak. He seems fine with hitting through him and fighting tooth and nail, much the way Novak did with Nadal five years ago to cement his place at the top of the game. Stanislas did very well and beat an in form Djokovic for 90% of the match. In fact, some of the returns Novak hit were downright incredible--crushing returns to within inches of the baseline--and these were not the 90 mph spin serves of Nadal, but 130 mph bombs wide and into the body. Great match.

 

[britbox]

Time to resurrect this post--Bodo is not my favorite of writers (and I have not read his article), but to the extent he may argue that Stanislas is teh toughest out for Novak on the big stage, I have agreed with that thought since the 2014 AO. I was thinking Stanislas could beat him in Paris because of his game and apparent lack of fear of playing Novak. He seems fine with hitting through him and fighting tooth and nail, much the way Novak did with Nadal five years ago to cement his place at the top of the game. Stanislas did very well and beat an in form Djokovic for 90% of the match. In fact, some of the returns Novak hit were downright incredible--crushing returns to within inches of the baseline--and these were not the 90 mph spin serves of Nadal, but 130 mph bombs wide and into the body. Great match.

He's a tough out for Novak but I'd still stand by the original opinion that he won't be a legacy buster... largely because Stan won't be consistent enough to be the man he needs to beat on a regular basis. Age, injuries, younger players coming through and having a target on your back will still be the main reason Novak doesn't make #18 major titles rather than Stan.

 

[shawnbm]

Again, I have not yet read the article, but what britbox says sounds right. I don't imagine the the Swiss Beast will be the sole or main force to deny Nole the record

 

[shawnbm]

I just read the article and see that Bodo wrote it in February of this year. Not bad for Peter, as he almost seems prescient on this point. At any rate, what will be interesting is to see if this serves as a launchpad, even at this late age, for Stanislas to commit himself to win Masters events and more majors. When the going gets tough, say in Monte Carlo, will he fold it up or try and imagine he is at Roland Garros and fight like he did in New York after losing that tiebreak in the first set?