BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, CA, 2024 - ATP Masters 1000

[don_fabio]

I feel too that Carlos will stop his title drought right here.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I feel too that Carlos will stop his title drought right here.

I feel he has found his confidence and game at IW, a court that suits his game

 

[Moxie]

Uh, oh...early break by Meddie.

 

[don_fabio]

Scratchy start from Carlos, lots of BH errors. Meddy looks determined and agressive.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I dont think we should underestimate Meddy still a long way to go in this match, yesterday he was up 4-0 against Paul lost focus, then went to a TB

 

[Moxie]

Flashy there, for the break-back.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Charly wins 1st set 76(5) good returning of serve in the TB
Some of his points in that 1st set are on my high light reel, the way he can recover quickly from a near impossible position on the court, at times makes me 'breathless" lol!

 

[El Dude]

Daniil has become, I think, the Andy Murray of the tour - an elite player, but a half step behind the current Big Three (Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner). He's now 8-10 in big title finals.

His 8 wins are against:

Goffin, Zverev x2, Thiem, Opelka, Djokovic, Rune, SInner

His 10 losses:
Nadal x3, Djokovic x3, Zverev, Alcaraz x2, Sinner

vs. Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Nadal: 2-9
vs. Others: 6-1

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I had computer problems, finally back on line,

Well done Charly winning back to back IW titles defeating Meddy 76(5) 61, he found his confidence and game, playing in this tournament, which suits his game
12 consecutive wins
13 ATP titles
5th Masters 10000 title
First title since Wimbledon!
A Fun Fact,
Charly is the first man to win back to back IW titles before turning 21 since Becker ( 1987-1988) they are the only men to achieve this!

 

[Moxie]

Daniil has become, I think, the Andy Murray of the tour - an elite player, but a half step behind the current Big Three (Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner). He's now 8-10 in big title finals.

His 8 wins are against:

Goffin, Zverev x2, Thiem, Opelka, Djokovic, Rune, SInner

His 10 losses:
Nadal x3, Djokovic x3, Zverev, Alcaraz x2, Sinner

vs. Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Nadal: 2-9
vs. Others: 6-1

Good stats, and interesting comparison with Murray. Like Murray, Medvedev tends to the defensive. For a big guy, he's got a surprisingly ineffective, or at least not lethal, serve. He's athletic enough to be all over the court...the "octopus," but what are his best weapons?

I was unable to watch the 2nd set, but was surprised by how it went. Or not? TBH, I thought Medvedev was the better player in most of the first set, though Carlos made key adjustments. I saw most of the TB, in which Carlos really stepped it up. And I did see Medvedev get argumentative about a line call. It had to have been disappointing to lose that first set, but was that all it took for him to lose heart? I'm curious to know from those who actually saw the 2nd set.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Good stats, and interesting comparison with Murray. Like Murray, Medvedev tends to the defensive. For a big guy, he's got a surprisingly ineffective, or at least not lethal, serve. He's athletic enough to be all over the court...the "octopus," but what are his best weapons?

I was unable to watch the 2nd set, but was surprised by how it went. Or not? TBH, I thought Medvedev was the better player in most of the first set, though Carlos made key adjustments. I saw most of the TB, in which Carlos really stepped it up. And I did see Medvedev get argumentative about a line call. It had to have been disappointing to lose that first set, but was that all it took for him to lose heart? I'm curious to know from those who actually saw the 2nd set.

Agree that Meddy started well in the 1st set which went to a TB, though his 2nd serve was his big weakness, that was obvious in the TB, he was also serving slowly for some unknown reason, 2nd set I felt Charly just wiped him out physically., Meddy had no energy.

 

[Fiero425]

Daniil has become, I think, the Andy Murray of the tour - an elite player, but a half step behind the current Big Three (Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner). He's now 8-10 in big title finals.

His 8 wins are against:

Goffin, Zverev x2, Thiem, Opelka, Djokovic, Rune, SInner

His 10 losses:
Nadal x3, Djokovic x3, Zverev, Alcaraz x2, Sinner

vs. Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Nadal: 2-9
vs. Others: 6-1

It's all "in his head" when it comes to Medvedev! He has all the ability, skill, & stamina to be at the top! He was the only one who scared me when it came to Novak's CYGS attempt in '21! I mentioned here & elsewhere that "Novak needs Daniil to be upset at USO!" It didn't help that Sascha Z. decided to keep Novak on court for 5 grueling sets in the SF! Sure enough, besides being overworked in previous matches, Djokovic was still recovering from Olympic disappointment! I thought he should skip it, but the man wanted to challenge himself! He had to take advantage of the opportunity to show Fedal & their fans that he was the best by a long mile in matching their OG medals! Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of hope for him in Paris this Summer Olympics or one last attempt possible in 2028!

 

[Moxie]

It's all "in his head" when it comes to Medvedev! He has all the ability, skill, & stamina to be at the top! He was the only one who scared me when it came to Novak's CYGS attempt in '21! I mentioned here & elsewhere that "Novak needs Daniil to be upset at USO!" It didn't help that Sascha Z. decided to keep Novak on court for 5 grueling sets in the SF! Sure enough, besides being overworked in previous matches, Djokovic was still recovering from Olympic disappointment! I thought he should skip it, but the man wanted to challenge himself! He had to take advantage of the opportunity to show Fedal & their fans that he was the best by a long mile in matching their OG medals! Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of hope for him in Paris this Summer Olympics or one last attempt possible in 2028!

I do think a lot of it is in his head, which is why I mentioned the pointless argument about a line call in the TB, and the collapse, as it seemed to me, based on scores, in the 2nd set. I know it's possible that Alcaraz was just too good, but surely Medvedev could have made more of a fight of it?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I do think a lot of it is in his head, which is why I mentioned the pointless argument about a line call in the TB, and the collapse, as it seemed to me, based on scores, in the 2nd set. I know it's possible that Alcaraz was just too good, but surely Medvedev could have made more of a fight of it?

It wasnt in his 'head' in the match today, maybe I was watching another match lol! his serve was off yesterday in his match against Paul, his 2nd serve was dismal and Charly was just teeing off on it, he had nothing much left physically in the 2nd set, Charly has too much variety in his game for starters, and he displayed it in this match today
I am yet to see any changes in his game with his new coach Gilles Simon by the way

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

BTW,
Indian Well total attendance across 2 weeks was 493,400, a tournament record, so much for some posters saying it had 'lost it's gloss'
Big events continue to bring in fans, but too many empty seats in too many smaller events and much confusion about where and when to watch on TV in general.
Time to do better.

 

[El Dude]

Good stats, and interesting comparison with Murray. Like Murray, Medvedev tends to the defensive. For a big guy, he's got a surprisingly ineffective, or at least not lethal, serve. He's athletic enough to be all over the court...the "octopus," but what are his best weapons?

I was unable to watch the 2nd set, but was surprised by how it went. Or not? TBH, I thought Medvedev was the better player in most of the first set, though Carlos made key adjustments. I saw most of the TB, in which Carlos really stepped it up. And I did see Medvedev get argumentative about a line call. It had to have been disappointing to lose that first set, but was that all it took for him to lose heart? I'm curious to know from those who actually saw the 2nd set.

It might be a combo of both that keep Daniil from being "super-elite": defensive-oriented game but lacking elite weapons AND a tendency to lose the mental game. But the latter might be partially due to the former. Meaning, Daniil loses his heart because he can't get people out on his own power, which is partially what separated Novak from Andy, at least once Novak came into his own in 2011.

But in terms of stat patterns, Daniil and Andy have a lot of similarities. Andy's typical season outside of his Slams was a couple Masters titles, a smattering of other titles, and QF/SF/F finishes at Slams - which is about Daniil's level of accomplishment.

Or compare their careers using my PEP stat, by year-ending age (updated through Indian Wells):

Daniil got started later - Andy played 9 events in 2005 and was full-time by 2006, the year he turned 19 -- while Daniil played 5 ATP level events in 2016 at age 20, and full-time in 2017 at age 21, and with breakouts at age 21 and 23, respectively. But other than that, their careers have been pretty close in terms of overall accomplishment, except for Andy's second Slam in 2013. Or compare titles through age 27:

Andy: 2-5 Slams, 1 Olympic Gold, 9 Masters, 5 ATP 500, 13 ATP 250
Daniil: 1-4 Slams, 1 TF, 6 Masters, 4 ATP 500, 8 ATP 250

Meaning, Andy has a bit more of everything - but that's mostly due to starting at a younger age. But of course it must be pointed out that Andy played during a harder context - he got going during the late peak years and extended prime of Roger and the early peak of Rafa, and his peak years were alongside Novak's and Rafa's.

Now Andy went supernova in 2016 at age 29, which would be Daniil's 2025 season, comparing age-wise. It also probably helped Andy that Roger and Rafa had off years that season. Even so, I doubt Daniil has such a season in him, but you never know. I haven't checked, but wouldn't be surprised if Andy has one of the biggest gaps between his best and second-best seasons, in terms of PEP (+23).

 

[El Dude]

As a follow-up to the above (and at the risk of these posts being moved elsewhere), here are the biggest outlier best seasons by PEP:

+23: Andy Murray (55 in 2016, 32 in 2012/15)
+19: John McEnroe (66 in 1984, 47 in 1981)
+18: Guillermo Vilas (44 in 1977, 26 in 1975)
+16: Marcelo Rios (26 in 1998, 10 in 1999)
+16: Brian Gottfried (26 in 1977, 10 in 1978)
+14: Thomas Muster (32 in 1995, 18 in 1996)
+14: Cliff Richey (24 in 1970, 10 in 1966)
+13: Guy Forget (19 in 1991, 6 in 1992)
+13: Mats Wilander (47 in 1988, 34 in 1983)
+13: Novak Djokovic (79 in 2015, 66 in 2011)
+12: Marat Safin (29 in 2000, 17 in 2004)
+11: Andy Roddick (31 in 2003, 20 in 2004)
+11: Alex Zverev (30 in 2021, 19 in 2018)
+11: Casper Ruud (20 in 2022, 9 in 2021)

Rod Laver's 1969 season (75 PEP) was actually +32 his second best Open Era season, 43 in 1970, but he had four seasons in the 1960s that were 59 or higher, with 1962 being 69...so that's not much of a gap.

Anyhow, I don't know if I'd call the above "fluke" seasons, but they are the career years that stood out the most from the rest of their career, and Andy's 2016 is the top one (though not as a percentage..that might go to Guy Forget in 91/92).

 

[nehmeth]

Meaning, Andy has a bit more of everything - but that's mostly due to starting at a younger age. But of course it must be pointed out that Andy played during a harder context - he got going during the late peak years and extended prime of Roger and the early peak of Rafa, and his peak years were alongside Novak's and Rafa's.

As much as I was not a fan of Andy Murray, aesthetically his groundstrokes were as clean as Daniil’s are ugly to watch. Murray lost a lot of matches he should have won due to his nerves, but overall was better at finishing matches than Daniil will ever be. The fact that Murray’s body gave out on him (hips), is a sad chapter in the lives of many professional tennis players. I prefer Daniil’s personality and sense of humor to the dour Murray, but watching the way he hits the ball is not pleasing to the eye.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

El Dude.,
I agree with your thoughts that Meddy in his defensive orientated game is lacking elite weapons, which did happen in today's final match against Charly,
Meddy folded like a 'tent' in the 2nd set, physically he had nothing more to give, all credit to Charly whose all court game and weapons were on display in the final. Actually Meddy would benefit playing doubles.
It will be interesting to see how Meddy the defending champion fares in Miami, as the draw comes out tomorrow, he clearly prefers the faster courts in Miami,than IW, still I was surprised at his effort in the 2nd set today against Charly.

 

[Front242]

Daniil has become, I think, the Andy Murray of the tour - an elite player, but a half step behind the current Big Three (Novak, Alcaraz, Sinner). He's now 8-10 in big title finals.

His 8 wins are against:

Goffin, Zverev x2, Thiem, Opelka, Djokovic, Rune, SInner

His 10 losses:
Nadal x3, Djokovic x3, Zverev, Alcaraz x2, Sinner

vs. Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Nadal: 2-9
vs. Others: 6-1

Sad but true and he needs proper coaching to tell him standing so far behind the baseline is absolute lunacy. IW 2023 highlights popped up on YouTube for me and after seeing him so far behind the baseline against Alcaraz last year, I knew it'd be the same this year. Plenty of times Alcaraz wasn't even hitting hard and Medvedev had ample time to come in but stands miles behind the baseline like a clown almost all match. Idiocy. No one sane should do that against a guy who plays excellent drop shots. It's giving away the point before the ball is even in play.

With his big wingspan, Medvedev should be going to the net more and ending points quickly. He also engages in pointless cat and mouse crap like Monfils and both of them possess killer power when they actually hit hard, like Khachanov. Hit hard like this more often, clown and you might win more. He doesn't know how to play tennis. Hard to be a fan of him when he continues this stupid game plan.