Bert's betting previews

[Bert]

I'm convinced. Will place on Daniel. I'm also liking Baghdatis at around 1.33 in the same tournament against Marco Cecchantino. Baghdatis has been playing well the last few weeks and Cecchantino has only one ATP tour win for the year.

Yes true,Baghdatis should win this one even if he doesn't like clay too much. I think this match is tomorrow. For today, Dzumhur and Bagnis matches look like good values too.

 

[Bert]

Tuesday 19/04 :

Yesterday Daniel won easily against Linzer 6/2 6/0. Good start for me. Correct picks : 1/1. Balance : +3.2 $. ROI : 32 %

Pick #2 : Ramos-Vinolas vs. Munar Clar / Barcelona
This match seems very unbalanced : Ramos-Vinolas ranked #55, Munar Clar #425.
Ramos-Vinolas is not doing a great season (8w/11l) but he lost against Bautista, Mathieu(x2), Gasquet, Monfils, Cilic, Ferrer, Cuevas, Carreno-Busta nothing to be ashamed of. He had few good wins : Coric, Kyrgios, Chung, Lopez. Clay is his best surface and from his records, we can expect him to perform at his level, that means like a #55 player.
His opponent is very young (18yo) played mainly on Futures tour and failed to qualify for Napoli Challenger main draw (10w/6l). There is no signs which tell us he may over perform today.

They met last year, and Ramos Vinolas won 6/3 6/0. I expect Ramos Vinolas to win comfortably. Win is given @ 1.09 and win in 2 sets @ 1.34 which doesn't look very appealing. I will go for match in less than 19.5 games @ 1.72. A win 6/3 6/4 will be a successful bet and this looks more than plausible.

 

[Bert]

Wednesday 20/04 :

Good pick again yesterday with a 6/3 6/2 win for Ramos-Vinolas. Correct picks : 2/2. Balance : +10.4$. ROI : +52%.

Pick #3 : Ramos-Vinolas vs. Cuevas / Barcelona
Cuevas is 12w/2l this season on clay having lost on Ferrer and Raonic for 2 titles in Rio and Sao Paulo. As I sais yesterday, Ramos-Vinolas' records are not great but he had some decent wins. They both play on their preferred surface, on pure tennis I think Cuevas is above.
They played once this season and Cuevas won in 2 sets. In career, they played 4 times, Cuevas won 3 times in 2 sets, RV once in 3 sets.

I pick Cuevas @ 1.45 because he is playing great on clay this season, I think he is better than RV and H2H's records show that RV struggles against him.

 

[britbox]

I like the Cuevas bet - have gone with that.

 

[Bert]

Thursday 21/04 :

Good pick yesterday with Cuevas. Correct picks : 3/3. Balance : +14.9$. ROI : +49%.

Pick #4 : Delbonis vs. Marchenko / Bucharest
There has been rain all day yesterday, balls will be heavy and slow today, great for clay lovers.
Delbonis on clay this season is 8wins for 4 losses. This is his best surface.
He played well recently in Indian Wells defeating Murray, then in Miami losing in 3 tight sets against Dimitrow and finally won the title in Marrakech on clay. In monte-Carlo he lost first round against Verdasco but I won't give too much importance to this match as it was just 2 days after his final in Marrakech.
Marchenko won his 2nd match in career (ATP main draw)on clay againt Sela. His last win on clay was in 2011 against Gulbis.
I don't see him performing well against Delbonis in these conditions.
Odds are low for Delbonis so I will go for Delbonis to win in 2 sets @ 1.58.

 

[Bert]

Friday 22/04 :

Another good pick yesterday. Lucky me ! Correct picks : 4/4. Balance : +20.7$. ROI : +52 %

Pick #5 : Nishikori vs. Dolgopolov / Barcelona
There few bets that look quite safe today but odds are not exciting enough to be taken. So I am going for an alternate bet and one of the best compromise between good odds and safety seems to be Nishikori / Dolgopolov match.
Nishikori leads 4-0 against Dolgopolov, and won easily in the most recent clash in Miami 6/2 6/2. I am going with Nishikori to win in 2 sets @ 1.57.

 

[Bert]

Saturday 23/04 :

What a start Hopefully it will last a bit. Correct picks : 5/5. Balance : +26.4$. ROI : 53 %

Pick #6 : Nadal vs.Kohlschreiber / Barcelona
Nadal leads 12-1 against Kohlschreiber, the only loss was on grass, and Nadal wins all clay meetings, all in straight sets, except the first one that he won in 3 sets on the Futures Tour when he was 16. Nadal on clay is 356 wins for 32 losses on the ATP tour and I cannot see how he can lose this one. He is given @ 1.13 which is too low to be taken so I am going for an alternate bet.
My pick : Nadal to win in 2 sets @ 1.42

 

[britbox]

^ I'm liking that bet. Can't see Kohli winning at all...

 

[Bert]

Sunday 24/04 :

Good week with 6 correct picks. Correct picks : 6/6. Balance : +30.6$. ROI : 51 %

As the week has been very good, I will go for a more risky bet today. Why ? Because Nadal's odds are too low to be taken without any risks, same for Kerber. I don't have any ideas who will win Instanbul and in Bucharest it looks like a 50/50 too.
So instead of putting a big bet on Nadal or Kerber which are not 100 % safe, I will go for a combo. Good profits this week to go for few risks today.

Nadal + Kerber to win @ 1.90.

 

[britbox]

I've backed Danka Kovinic in Istanbul. I've not got a gut feeling about the Kerber and Nadal matches... so have avoided this time.

 

[Bert]

I hesitated for Kovinic. She defeated Buyakcay easily 3 weeks ago but there will be a lot of pressure on this game : Kovinic playing to qualify for the Olympics and Buyakcay playing at home in front of the local and maybe agitated crowd her first final. nerves may be the key more than tennis

 

[Bert]

Monday 25/04 :

Gran Slam 7/7 last week Correct picks : 7/7. Balance : +39.6$. ROI : 57 %

Let's try to keep going the same way !

First rounds today, and nothing really exciting and safe. The only one which seems to me a good value is Almagro vs. Silva in Estoril.

Pick #8 : Almagro vs. Silva / Estoril
Silva is ranked #253 and plays usually on Futures Tour. 2 wins / 3 losses in career on ATP Tour. 10w/15l on Challengers in career (4w/7l on clay). And he seems to be more comfortable on hard courts than clay.
Almagro doesn't play at his best but he is still Almagro and against this type of player he should win even not in a good day. Silva had a wild card so he didn't play qualifications and this will be the first match on Portuguese clay for both.
I think Almagro can close it in 2 sets.

My pick : Almagro to win in 2 sets @ 1.47

 

[britbox]

Good on ya bert. Well done on the full set.

 

[Bert]

Tuesday 26/04 :

Correct picks : 8/8. Balance : +44.3$. ROI : 55 %

Pick #9 : Soler-Espinosa vs. Tsurenko / Rabat
Today I have decided to take more risks and go for higher odds.
Soler-Espinosa played and won 2 qualification rounds. The week before she reached the final of an ITF tournament on clay in Bogota. She isn't playing so great this season 8w/9l but she is already in her tournament and loves clay.
Tsurenko this season is : 7w/8l (includes 4 wins in Fed Cup against players outside Top#100), she lost the only game she played on clay and career's records on clay are pretty bad. Most of all she lost the 3 macthes she's ever played against Soler-Espinosa without managing to take a set.
This is not 100% safe but odds are too tempting. My pick : Soler-Espinosa to win @2.06.

 

[Bert]

Wednesday 27/04 :

Not even close yesterday Too risky ! Correct picks : 8/9. Balance : +34.3$. ROI : 38%

Pick #10 : Delbonis vs. Sela / Istanbul
Very quick decision here : Delbonis clay specialist against Sela who won 7 matches on clay in career for 29 losses. He doesn't like it, he usually doesn't play on it and he doesn't win on it. Easy
My pick Delbonis to win in 2 sets @ 1.49.

 

[Bert]

Thursday 28/04 :

Bad day again yesterday. Correct picks : 8/10. Balance : +24.3$. ROI : + 24.3 %

Pick #11 : Carreno-Busta vs. Daniel / Estoril + Dzumhur vs. Marchenko / Istanbul
I am going for a combo today because odds are too low to take these bets as singles. Carreno-Busta leads 6-0 against Daniel but they never played on ATP Tour (5 times on Futures + last one on Challenger in 2014). Daniel played well recently but he never reached the third round of a main draw. Carreno-Busta is better IMO, and should win this match comfortably.
Dzumhur had some good wins in Monte-Carlo, he loves clay. Not the same for Marchenko who won only 2 matches on clay for 12 played on ATP Tour. Dzumhur should win this one easy.

My pick : Carreno-Busta + Dzumhur @ 1.55

 

[Bert]

Friday 29/04 :

Back on the winning side Correct picks : 9/11. Balance : + 29.8$. ROI : + 27 %

Pick #12 : Fognini vs. Kovalik / Munich
Kovalik is a lucky loser and got Monfils' spot in the main draw. He defeated Sijsling yesterday (he lost against him in qualifications). In career he only won 2 matches on ATp Tour.
Fognini is playing well, won his 2 first rounds in 2 sets.

My pick : Fognini to win in 2 sets @ 1.56.

 

[Bert]

Saturday 30/04 :

Correct picks : 9/12. Balance : +19.8$. ROI : +16 %

Pick #13 : Karlovic vs. Dimitrov / Istanbul
Karlovic leads 2-1 against Dimitrov and they played 4 tie-breaks in 3 matches ( at least one in each match).
Karlovic has played 8 matches this season and 7 tie-breaks (5 in 4 clay matches, only 1 clay match without a tie-break was in Bucharest on a slow clay).
My pick : at least 1 tie-break @ 1.70

 

[Bert]

Sunday 1/05 :

Correct picks : 10/13. Balance : +26.8$. ROI : 21 %

Pick #14 : Madrid WTA
I am not inspired by the ATP finals today so I am going for a combo on Madrid WTA playing 3 favourite players.

My pick : Halep + Kerber + Suarez @ 1.85

 

[britbox]

On a good roll Bert... although Kerber probably messed up today's momentum.