Australian Open Day 4: Thursday, Jan 16 - Order of Play

[Riotbeard]

Well, I turn my attention away from the tennis for a few hours and this happens. So, who is advising Juan Martín, and how much longer am I supposed to keep believing he might win another Slam? Good for Rafa, but not really good, overall.

The one nice thing about Juan is all he has to do is get hot at the right time, and he has a chance, but this is disappointing.

 

[ftan]

gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah :nono

del potro fans everywhere sit in a puddle of gloom. :violins:

That include me :cry

 

[brokenshoelace]

Saw that. Benoit (Paire) is in a battle with a young Aussie along with the raucous crowd.

Getting to watch Murray for the first time this year. He's winning easily, but with way more errors to winners (so far). He's slapping his forehand a lot, with the usual result of flying out or into the net. Millot (his opponent) is way overmatched, but plays with a lot of flair and is fun to watch.

... and as I write that, he goes up a break on Andy. :cover

I agree about Murray. He was pretty erratic and didn't seem too comfortable out there.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising signs and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

 

[nehmeth]

Verdasco served 18 double faults in this match. Maybe he should hire Todd Martin to get that worked out.

Huh?! By those results it's obvious he began working with Martin back in November.

 

[Denis]

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising sings and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

Following tented's definition of 'dark horse', I think Del Potro should be demoted from 'contender' to 'dark horse' in Slams. It suits him better too. He's dependent on form apparently.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising sings and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

Following tented's definition of 'dark horse', I think Del Potro should be demoted from 'contender' to 'dark horse' in Slams. It suits him better too. He's dependent on form apparently.

Hmm... He's still in the mid-range of the top 10 but you might be right. It's not all about rankings anyway (ie is Ferrer really a contender?).

I'd divide the criteria like this for now:

Favorites: Nadal, Djokovic.
Contenders: Federer, Murray (despite form, injuries, etc, they've earned it. Murray looks unconvincing for now, he'll re-find his form, even if it's not at this tourney)
Dark Horse: Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, Ferrer, Wawrinka, etc... (just pick the one you like).
Spoiler: Raonic, Dimitrov, whoever else you think has a chance of causing an upset.

Obviously a lot will change come the next major, and some of it will be based on what happens at this tourney, but that's the way I see things right now.

 

[Denis]

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising sings and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

Following tented's definition of 'dark horse', I think Del Potro should be demoted from 'contender' to 'dark horse' in Slams. It suits him better too. He's dependent on form apparently.

Hmm... He's still in the mid-range of the top 10 but you might be right. It's not all about rankings anyway (ie is Ferrer really a contender?).

I'd divide the criteria like this for now:

Favorites: Nadal, Djokovic.
Contenders: Federer, Murray (despite form, injuries, etc, they've earned it. Murray looks unconvincing for now, he'll re-find his form, even if it's not at this tourney)
Dark Horse: Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, Ferrer, Wawrinka, etc... (just pick the one you like).
Spoiler: Raonic, Dimitrov, whoever else you think has a chance of causing an upset.

Obviously a lot will change come the next major, and some of it will be based on what happens at this tourney, but that's the way I see things right now.

I'd add monfils as a spoiler

Agree with the list. Problem is that there might not be real contenders actually. Murray is almost a favorite, although currently more a contender. Federer is not beating Nadal or Djokovic, let alone both. That makes him more a dark horse.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising sings and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

Following tented's definition of 'dark horse', I think Del Potro should be demoted from 'contender' to 'dark horse' in Slams. It suits him better too. He's dependent on form apparently.

Hmm... He's still in the mid-range of the top 10 but you might be right. It's not all about rankings anyway (ie is Ferrer really a contender?).

I'd divide the criteria like this for now:

Favorites: Nadal, Djokovic.
Contenders: Federer, Murray (despite form, injuries, etc, they've earned it. Murray looks unconvincing for now, he'll re-find his form, even if it's not at this tourney)
Dark Horse: Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, Ferrer, Wawrinka, etc... (just pick the one you like).
Spoiler: Raonic, Dimitrov, whoever else you think has a chance of causing an upset.

Obviously a lot will change come the next major, and some of it will be based on what happens at this tourney, but that's the way I see things right now.

I'd add monfils as a spoiler

Agree with the list. Problem is that there might not be real contenders actually. Murray is almost a favorite, although currently more a contender. Federer is not beating Nadal or Djokovic, let alone both. That makes him more a dark horse.

Murray would have been a favorite had it not been for the uncertainty regarding his form/return from injury. Otherwise, yeah absolutely. The guy had made a remarkable amount of finals before the US Open last year.

I agree about Federer but I guess it's just one of those things that happen when you win 17 slams. You're a contender because you're Federer. Let's say Federer rolls back the years and actually beats Djokovic or Nadal... people will be surprised, sure, but in the end, it boils down to: Oh well, he's Federer. The most accomplished player of all time.

So yeah, it's more reputation than reality at this point but it's kind of earned once you've done what he has.

 

[tented]

Let's say Federer rolls back the years and actually beats Djokovic or Nadal... people will be surprised, sure, but in the end, it boils down to: Oh well, he's Federer. The most accomplished player of all time.

I would be more than surprised. Short of Novak or Rafa suffering a mid-match injury, I would be shocked. Yes, he's Roger "17 Slams" Federer, but he hasn't taken down Rafa at a Major since 2007, and he hasn't prevailed on a hard-court best-of-five against Djokovic since 2009.

I feel confident Federer will beat Gabashvili, but Tsonga could be an insurmountable problem. Sure, Roger took him down here last year, but it took a little over 3.5 hours, and five sets.

 

[rafanoy1992]

By the way, with Delpo out, this is a HUGE chance for Raonic, Dimitrov, and Paire to reach their first ever Major Quarterfinals.

In my opinion, the winner of Raonic vs Dimitrov match will go on to their first ever Major Quarterfinals assuming they don't play a five set marathon match.

 

[Moxie]

Well, I turn my attention away from the tennis for a few hours and this happens. So, who is advising Juan Martín, and how much longer am I supposed to keep believing he might win another Slam? Good for Rafa, but not really good, overall.

The one nice thing about Juan is all he has to do is get hot at the right time, and he has a chance, but this is disappointing.

My complaint is that he can't afford to just get hot sometimes. His ambition, and ours for him, needs him to be more consistent than that.

The problem with a loss like this is that it's tough to just mention that the AO is DP's worst slam. Yes, it is, and we all talked about that leading up to it, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be beating an unknown second round opponent. It's so disappointing really, and I agree with Darth that despite the occasional promising sings and the return to being a borderline top 5 player, Del Potro has never been able to take two steps forward in a row. I don't remember a single time where he built any momentum following his injury. Every good result is followed by a flat out awful one.

I agree, and this is not going to get him where he wants to be. I know the AO isn't where he has his best results, but he knew he was getting close to #3 in the rankings, so I was expecting a big push from him here. Certainly not going out BEFORE getting to Nadal. Personally, I'm glad he's out, as he was, you might argue, Rafa's biggest hurdle in the top half. But in general, I'm getting a little tired of always thinking he's taking that next step (back) up.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah :nono

del potro fans everywhere sit in a puddle of gloom. :violins:

I picked him to be a finalist. My draw goes down the drain.
I keep believing in JMDP and he keeps disappointing me again and again.
This is make or break year for JMDP. If he does not achieve anything
sensible this year, he will never achieve in the future, I suppose.