Australian Open 2014 Draw

[brokenshoelace]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

 

[Moxie]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

Well, if this means anything to you, Roger won their exhibition: 6-7(5-7) 6-3 7-5.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I feel like Roger always has a chance against Tsonga, even these days, because Tsonga does not have a solid script against him. Sometimes he is too cute with his shots, sometimes he just wonders off...unlike, say, a Berdych who has figured out what works against Roger and he sticks to it as best as he can, win or lose. More wins than I like these days.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

Well, if this means anything to you, Roger won their exhibition: 6-7(5-7) 6-3 7-5.

It doesn't

Did Tsonga play any tourneys this year already?

 

[brokenshoelace]

I feel like Roger always has a chance against Tsonga, even these days, because Tsonga does not have a solid script against him. Sometimes he is too cute with his shots, sometimes he just wonders off...unlike, say, a Berdych who has figured out what works against Roger and he sticks to it as best as he can, win or lose. More wins than I like these days.

Oh don't get me wrong, of course he has a chance. He's probably the favorite too. But Roger is no longer that good at handling heavy artillery, so if Tsonga gets in the zone it's going to be a problem. Of course, Tsonga's level will fluctuate throughout the match, but Federer would need to show killer instinct and step on the gas during Joe's bad patches.

 

[DarthFed]

I feel like Roger always has a chance against Tsonga, even these days, because Tsonga does not have a solid script against him. Sometimes he is too cute with his shots, sometimes he just wonders off...unlike, say, a Berdych who has figured out what works against Roger and he sticks to it as best as he can, win or lose. More wins than I like these days.

He should fricking have a chance. Question is whether he can play well enough to easily take care of Tsonga on hard courts. Tsonga's backhand was actually serviceable at times last year including the Australian Open and RG. When it's not a huge weakness it is definitely a tough one for Roger. But given Tsonga's recent injury and lack of match play I wouldn't expect him to be at too high of a level and then the question is about Roger's form.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I feel like Roger always has a chance against Tsonga, even these days, because Tsonga does not have a solid script against him. Sometimes he is too cute with his shots, sometimes he just wonders off...unlike, say, a Berdych who has figured out what works against Roger and he sticks to it as best as he can, win or lose. More wins than I like these days.

He should fricking have a chance. Question is whether he can play well enough to easily take care of Tsonga on hard courts. Tsonga's backhand was actually serviceable at times last year including the Australian Open and RG. When it's not a huge weakness it is definitely a tough one for Roger. But given Tsonga's recent injury and lack of match play I wouldn't expect him to be at too high of a level and then the question is about Roger's form.

The main danger with Tsonga is if he gets in the zone service-wise, where he becomes near unplayable. Given Roger's awful returning nowadays, he really won't get a sniff at breaking Tsonga's serve in the patches during which Jo is hot. That was really the problem at the FO last year. If Tsonga isn't serving well, the rest of his game follows suit, and there is no excuse for Roger not to stomp all over him.

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah but I think the serving zone gets a lot easier for Tsonga if he knows he doesn't have to place it, so if Roger does return like crap Tsonga will be holding all the time. Tsonga also feeds off confidence, his serve can be off but if he hits a few big forehands his serve will then suddenly start to catch fire.

It's one of those matchups where I always felt if Roger plays reasonably decent he wins, if not then it is 50-50. Of course by today's standards it might be close to 50-50 to begin with.

 

[Moxie]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

Well, if this means anything to you, Roger won their exhibition: 6-7(5-7) 6-3 7-5.

It doesn't

Did Tsonga play any tourneys this year already?

Following Up, I'd say, no.

 

[herios]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

Well, if this means anything to you, Roger won their exhibition: 6-7(5-7) 6-3 7-5.

It doesn't

Did Tsonga play any tourneys this year already?

Following Up, I'd say, no.

Tsonga played in Hopman cup (mixed team event) and he carried France to victory (Cornet was the weakest link). He also played Abu Dhabi, which had stronger field than some of the real events.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Stepanek has a 2-12 record against Roger.

He seems to win one match every six years.

He won once in 2002.

He then won once in 2008.

Oh wait. cry:

 

[Kieran]

I think the draw is an okay one for Rafa. Tomic is probably a higher level than you want in round 1, but that just means he kicks off in second gear and finds a level he might usually be reaching by round 3.

Jack Sock/Monfils in round 3?
Hewitt/Nishikori in round 4?

None of these are especially grave.

Del Potro in the QF could be a barnstormer but by that stage matches should be getting close. I think if both players reach that round it'll be a match worth staying up late for. I expect Rafa to have too much for him, though.

Then the semis, well, who knows who will be in the semis? Federer? Murray? Neither of them? Murray has a few interesting potential matches along the way but I think the five-set format will actually help him find some groove.

Novak has the best draw, with Wawrinka being the only interesting match along the way, and I think interest in that one might be over-rated. Stan will find the defending champ more on guard this season, against a possible upset. I'd expect that one to be swift and bloody...

 

[Front242]

All the action is in Nadal's half. Im probably not even going to bother watching on the other days. Maybe I'll see a match or two of Novak if I have some spare time.

Yeah, Nadal's half is very interesting. Him and Tomic in the opening match is a blockbuster match for an opening round (world number 1 vs. hometown boy).

Murray just tweeted this:

Just seen provisional aus open schedule... day 2... Nadal v Tomic 1st on court 13!!?? What are the organisers thinking!

Bearing in mind Nadal's OCDs maybe they're hoping the number 13 might help Tomic

 

[Front242]

Not sure how Tsonga is playing these days but I can't imagine Federer being too thrilled to play him in the 4th round.

It's his own fault for playing 80% of the year like a complete tool and finishing number 6. That said, if he finished say number 4 I dunno how different his draw would be.

 

[Mile]

Time to repeat Tsonga-Djokovic finals. I have a feeling Murray, Rafa are out of form for AO. Surprises will be.

Time of transforming Big three into Big two.

 

[isabelle]

Simon is doubtful after his accident in Kooyong, he'll take doctor's advice before deciding to play
Bad luck especially 'cause it happened in a exh and just before AO

 

[Goldenboy]

Ouch! Hard, hard draw for Rafa. My biggest concern is Tomic, and Monfils is second (because Rafa will have a much better feel for the court and the conditions by the third round). I have seen Rafa lay some very bad eggs in the first round of slams, and Tomic is confident enough mentally to pounce if he has an opportunity. Monfils also is someone who could play a great first set, start the second with a break and then all of a sudden its big trouble.

I hope Rafa comes out strong in his first match and gives Tomic no early gifts. If he wins the first set, the best of 5 format all but ensures his safety. Ditto with Monfils.

If he gets to the round of 16, I have high hopes that he can at least reach the final. Del Potro at the QF could be tough, but I expect Rafa to win that given it would be his fifth match and he should be nearing his best level. On an outdoor hard court, I would always pick Rafa in best of 5.

Murray in the semis could be interesting (because it would mean Murray is in fairly good form) but I would pick Rafa.

 

[the AntiPusher]

an unusal very top loaded heavy draw for the world's number 1..

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

If Tomic plays his cutesy slicey game, he will be toast. Having said that, if he can us that slice correctly, meaning not going down the line to Rafa's backhand where he runs around it and jams the forehand in your throat, but go deep to Rafa's forehand and keep it low and construct the points that way, he might win a set.

 

[brokenshoelace]

If Tomic plays his cutesy slicey game, he will be toast. Having said that, if he can us that slice correctly, meaning not going down the line to Rafa's backhand where he runs around it and jams the forehand in your throat, but go deep to Rafa's forehand and keep it low and construct the points that way, he might win a set.

Yeah, I remember they played here in 2011 (?) and Tomic started out by playing his usual game and it was a massacre. Then he actually starting hitting the ball big and attacking and he gave Nadal a lot of problems. I don't like him at all but he's got smart tennis IQ, so I think he'll be ready tactically. He's got a solid backhand and he can handle Nadal's forehand barrage relatively well. The problem with him is he's lazy and not the greatest mover so once Rafa gets on top and moves him around he's done.