herios said:
I am not buying into your theory, just to let you know. The arrival of 3-4 more talented teenagers will not make the tour as a whole younger.
Even here at RG, the lone qualifier who made the 3 round is a guy Martin, who is 26, closing on the top 100 for the first time.
I missed this. It isn't merely the arrival of 3-4 teenagers, but the waves of talent. Eventually Generation Federer will be phased out - it has been happening for years now, although there's still a group of stalwarts. But even there we're starting to see the beginning of the end for Ferrer, Lopez, Robredo, Youzhny and old Federer himself.
The next generation, the very talented 1984-88 group, is aging (turning 28-32 this year) and will keep the tour pretty old for awhile, but unless the 89-93 group is packed full of late-bloomers, once the Nadal-Djokovic group starts phasing out in a few years, the tour will jump to a much younger level. Consider the age of the current generations at the end of 2020:
The 1979-83 generation will be 37-41 and almost entirely retired, with maybe one or two holdouts.
The 1984-88 generation will be 32-36 and many retired; those who aren't, will likely be in decline. But I imagine that a lot of these guys will still be around and in the top 100, just not many in the top 20.
The 1989-93 generation will be 27-31. Maybe these guys are late-bloomers and peak at this point, or maybe they decline alongside the older generation. I suspect the latter.
The 1994-98 generation will be 22-26 and peaking, dominating the tour in both results and rankings.
The point being, it might take a few years, but the tour will get younger, if only because the 89-93 generation isn't as talented as the 94-98 generation, and will be pushed out sooner.