Aging Men's field

[herios]

Yesterday morning when I started watching the event, one of the statement the guys made in the booth was that in the main field of 128 players, there are 51 players aged 30+.
I knew they were many, but this many??? Soon ATP will be merging with the senior tour if this continues.
And in comparison, there are only 4 teenagers: Zverev, Coric, Fritz and Halys.
Considering that I counted a few days ago 40 players aged 30+ in the top 100, it means there are many more who made it into the main draw being ranked outside of the top 100.
This just shows how weaker are the younger players who are supposed to be developing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

May be the younger generation is not week. May be more of the talented and atheletic folks are choosing other sports. Kyrgios said that he actually like Basketball to Tennis for example and was having hard time to decide which one to commit to.

 

[Front242]

Strong era alright :nono

 

[El Dude]

Look at it this way, herios. There are more talented young players now then there were a few years ago.

Now - top 5 Teenagers
41 - Alexander Zverev
47 - Borna Coric
67 - Taylor Fritz
140 - Jared Donaldson
154 - Quentin Halys

2011 - top 5 Teenagers
42 - Bernard Tomic
79 - Ryan Harrison
184 - Javier Marti
227 - Benjamin Mitchell
275 - James Duckworth

Now compare 30-somethings.

Now - Top 5 30+ year olds
3 - Roger Federer
4 - Stan Wawrinka
7 - JW Tsonga
8 - Tomas Berdych
11 - David Ferrer

2011 - Top 5 30+ year olds
3 - Roger Federer
8 - Mardy Fish
20 - Feliciano Lopez
28 - Radek Stepanek
29 - Juan Ignacio Chela

So as you can see, there are both more teenagers and more 30-somethings ranked higher than five years ago, so it would seem that the tour is getting both younger and older at the same time. I think the explanation is simple: The current generation that is turning 28-32 this (b. 1984-88) is particularly strong, followed by a very weak 1989-93 generation, and then a stronger 1994-98 generation. Its the generation of players turning 23-27 this year--what should be prime years--that is particularly weak.

My guess is that a few years from now the tour will become younger again, as the weak 89-93 generation gets older they'll be dominated by the 94-98 players in their prime.

 

[herios]

Both Chung and Khachanov turned 20 already, so technically they are not teenagers anymore.

 

[El Dude]

Whoops, I was looking at an under 21 list. I changed it.

 

[herios]

About Donaldson, that dude is trading water. I keep looking at his ranking for months now, since you kept mentioning him, and I do not see anything overly optimistic.
I am equally unimpressed by Rublev by the way. The guy is hit and miss. And so is Tiafoe by the way. For now. They get a pass this year from me, because they are 18. But I am not hoping much to be honest from these two either.
Halys had an impressive win today over Chung, who keep sliding backwards. I will have to watch him more closely.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, Donaldson has been treading water for over a year now since breaking into the top 200 15 months ago. He won't be an elite player, but still could be decent.

Rublev should be better - he has an impressive game and is young enough that he could still move up, but I'd like to see some movement soon. He seems to go out early in a most tournaments.

Tiafoe seems flawed. I'm not an expert, but his serve motion is weird and there's just something inefficient about his game. Can't pinpoint it.

But yeah, they get a pass as they're young enough. Right now if I had to categorize the younger players (age 22 and under), I'd say:

Future top 5/Slam contenders: Thiem, Kyrgios, Zverev, Fritz
Future top 10-20/Slam darkhorses: Coric, Pouille, Halys
Future top 20-40: Chung, Khachanov, Edmund, Thompson, Vesely, Fratangelo, Monteiro, Donaldson, E Ymer, Nishioka, Rubin, Jasika, Paul
Too soon to tell but good potential (maybe top 5-20): Rublev, Tiafoe, Kozlov, Lee, Mmoh, M Ymer, Shapovalov, Aliassime

The operative word for every category is "potential."

Again, who knows, but that's my best guess right now. The second and third groups are harder to differentiate. Maybe Halys is rated too highly, but maybe Khachanov or Paul etc will be better than the others.

Denis Shapovalov is a player I recently came across who looks quite promising, in my opinion. He just turned 17 in April (born 1999!) and is ranked #400 right now. He'll probably be more interesting to follow next year. Aliassime too, but he's a couple years away from the top 200.

 

[isabelle]

Who's the oldest in Paris ? Steppy or Dr Ivo ?

 

[Front242]

Stepanek is older by a few months. Haas still hopes to make a comeback next year and will be 39 next March.

 

[herios]

My guess is that a few years from now the tour will become younger again, as the weak 89-93 generation gets older they'll be dominated by the 94-98 players in their prime.

I am not buying into your theory, just to let you know. The arrival of 3-4 more talented teenagers will not make the tour as a whole younger.
Even here at RG, the lone qualifier who made the 3 round is a guy Martin, who is 26, closing on the top 100 for the first time.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Stepanek is older by a few months. Haas still hopes to make a comeback next year and will be 39 next March.

Stepanek is the oldest singles player. If you include the Doubles playes, Nestor is probably the oldest being 43 years old. Even Zimonjic, Stepanek's doubles partner at RG is a year older to Worm.

 

[Front242]

Haas is actually the oldest singles player I believe, followed by Stepanek and hopefully will be back either late this year or early next to give it one last go. He's 38 now and will be 39 next April. He had toe surgery last month not only to help with his tennis but everyday life. This was his 9th surgery

https://twitter.com/ATPWorldTour/status/720599937348734980?lang=en

In fact, no, I knew there was a guy older than Haas still on tour. Rubén Ramírez Hidalgo is also 38, 39 next January. I remember him vividly as I had €500 on a 6 match accumulator a good few years ago and had Grosjean to beat him and Ramírez Hidalgo won in a 5th set TB. Didn't care too much for losing the €500 as it was just bet winnings lost and not my own cash and I made it up same day with other bets but if Grosjean had won I'd have got back €17,500 :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I meant Worm is the oldest singles player at this year's RG (and not the oldest on the circuit).

 

[Front242]

I meant Worm is the oldest singles player at this year's RG (and not the oldest on the circuit).

Ah, in that case, yes he is

 

[herios]

Denis Shapovalov is a player I recently came across who looks quite promising, in my opinion. He just turned 17 in April (born 1999!) and is ranked #400 right now. He'll probably be more interesting to follow next year. Aliassime too, but he's a couple years away from the top 200.

Regarding these two young teenagers, I am keeping a close eye on them, especially because both are Canadians.
I would also mention that both have made already waves, last year when they won together the USO boys doubles final.

 

[El Dude]

Denis Shapovalov is a player I recently came across who looks quite promising, in my opinion. He just turned 17 in April (born 1999!) and is ranked #400 right now. He'll probably be more interesting to follow next year. Aliassime too, but he's a couple years away from the top 200.

Regarding these two young teenagers, I am keeping a close eye on them, especially because both are Canadians.
I would also mention that both have made already waves, last year when they won together the USO boys doubles final.

I didn't know that. Are you Canadian, herios?

Anyhow, both are into the fourth round in the boys' singles.

 

[El Dude]

My guess is that a few years from now the tour will become younger again, as the weak 89-93 generation gets older they'll be dominated by the 94-98 players in their prime.

I am not buying into your theory, just to let you know. The arrival of 3-4 more talented teenagers will not make the tour as a whole younger.
Even here at RG, the lone qualifier who made the 3 round is a guy Martin, who is 26, closing on the top 100 for the first time.

I missed this. It isn't merely the arrival of 3-4 teenagers, but the waves of talent. Eventually Generation Federer will be phased out - it has been happening for years now, although there's still a group of stalwarts. But even there we're starting to see the beginning of the end for Ferrer, Lopez, Robredo, Youzhny and old Federer himself.

The next generation, the very talented 1984-88 group, is aging (turning 28-32 this year) and will keep the tour pretty old for awhile, but unless the 89-93 group is packed full of late-bloomers, once the Nadal-Djokovic group starts phasing out in a few years, the tour will jump to a much younger level. Consider the age of the current generations at the end of 2020:

The 1979-83 generation will be 37-41 and almost entirely retired, with maybe one or two holdouts.
The 1984-88 generation will be 32-36 and many retired; those who aren't, will likely be in decline. But I imagine that a lot of these guys will still be around and in the top 100, just not many in the top 20.
The 1989-93 generation will be 27-31. Maybe these guys are late-bloomers and peak at this point, or maybe they decline alongside the older generation. I suspect the latter.
The 1994-98 generation will be 22-26 and peaking, dominating the tour in both results and rankings.

The point being, it might take a few years, but the tour will get younger, if only because the 89-93 generation isn't as talented as the 94-98 generation, and will be pushed out sooner.

 

[herios]

Denis Shapovalov is a player I recently came across who looks quite promising, in my opinion. He just turned 17 in April (born 1999!) and is ranked #400 right now. He'll probably be more interesting to follow next year. Aliassime too, but he's a couple years away from the top 200.

Regarding these two young teenagers, I am keeping a close eye on them, especially because both are Canadians.
I would also mention that both have made already waves, last year when they won together the USO boys doubles final.

I didn't know that. Are you Canadian, herios?

Why did you think I am rooting for Milos? For his hair style??

 

[herios]

My guess is that a few years from now the tour will become younger again, as the weak 89-93 generation gets older they'll be dominated by the 94-98 players in their prime.

I am not buying into your theory, just to let you know. The arrival of 3-4 more talented teenagers will not make the tour as a whole younger.
Even here at RG, the lone qualifier who made the 3 round is a guy Martin, who is 26, closing on the top 100 for the first time.

I missed this. It isn't merely the arrival of 3-4 teenagers, but the waves of talent. Eventually Generation Federer will be phased out - it has been happening for years now, although there's still a group of stalwarts. But even there we're starting to see the beginning of the end for Ferrer, Lopez, Robredo, Youzhny and old Federer himself.

The next generation, the very talented 1984-88 group, is aging (turning 28-32 this year) and will keep the tour pretty old for awhile, but unless the 89-93 group is packed full of late-bloomers, once the Nadal-Djokovic group starts phasing out in a few years, the tour will jump to a much younger level. Consider the age of the current generations at the end of 2020:

The 1979-83 generation will be 37-41 and almost entirely retired, with maybe one or two holdouts.
The 1984-88 generation will be 32-36 and many retired; those who aren't, will likely be in decline. But I imagine that a lot of these guys will still be around and in the top 100, just not many in the top 20.
The 1989-93 generation will be 27-31. Maybe these guys are late-bloomers and peak at this point, or maybe they decline alongside the older generation. I suspect the latter.
The 1994-98 generation will be 22-26 and peaking, dominating the tour in both results and rankings.

The point being, it might take a few years, but the tour will get younger, if only because the 89-93 generation isn't as talented as the 94-98 generation, and will be pushed out sooner.

My point is the late blooming will become a rule, not an exception. I am standing by it. In a few years, you will agree with me.