Age-related discussion

[Federberg]

Hmmm.. have to disagree about Rafa. When he's fit, he's still fully peak to me

 

[brokenshoelace]

Hmmm.. have to disagree about Rafa. When he's fit, he's still fully peak to me

Peak maybe. Fully peak? No. I don't see how he can be when his movement noticeably declined. It's such a vital part of his game that it's hard to disregard. It's really hard not to look at his grass results and deduce a glaring narrative. Of course, for most, the narrative is that "Nadal stinks in the first week" (even though he lost in the second this year). He's more vulnerable in the first week, sure, but you'd think reaching 5 finals in a row is a pretty strong indicator that no matter what, he gets past the first week. Then suddenly, 3 years in a row, his grass game varies from garbage to average. That's not a coincidence.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So Roger is an exception to the age old "old age" problem. He peaked young, and he's still a factor.

There is a phrase for it: "From Prodigy to Dotigy"

 

[Federberg]

Hmmm.. have to disagree about Rafa. When he's fit, he's still fully peak to me

Peak maybe. Fully peak? No. I don't see how he can be when his movement noticeably declined. It's such a vital part of his game that it's hard to disregard. It's really hard not to look at his grass results and deduce a glaring narrative. Of course, for most, the narrative is that "Nadal stinks in the first week" (even though he lost in the second this year). He's more vulnerable in the first week, sure, but you'd think reaching 5 finals in a row is a pretty strong indicator that no matter what, he gets past the first week. Then suddenly, 3 years in a row, his grass game varies from garbage to average. That's not a coincidence.

Fair point

 

[brokenshoelace]

To further comment on this, guys like Federer and Nadal are so good (and I mean SO GOOD!) that not being in their respective peaks still means they're amazing, because their peaks are almost unplayable. That's why we look at Rafa who is still producing excellent results (last year was phenomenal) and find it hard to say he's not in his peak. But, unlike Novak, specific aspects of his game have declined.

With that said, and despite mentioning them in the same sentence at first, I am definitely NOT equating Rafa being removed from his peak now to Roger, since Roger is WAAAAAAY removed from his peak, while Rafa is potentially only now exiting his. I look at Rafa now and for the past 2 years the same way I looked at Roger in 2008-2009 (incidentally, like Roger during those two years, Rafa has won 3 slams over the past couple of seasons and finished one of them as world number 1, again, just like Roger then).

 

[El Dude]

Hmmm.. have to disagree about Rafa. When he's fit, he's still fully peak to me

But that's just it - as I'm using the term, "plateau" can still see glimpses of peak, and part of what separates it from the true peak may be health. The older one gets, the harder it is to stay health and the little nagging injuries start piling up, taking a toll on one's performance.

To further comment on this, guys like Federer and Nadal are so good (and I mean SO GOOD!) that not being in their respective peaks still means they're amazing, because their peaks are almost unplayable. That's why we look at Rafa who is still producing excellent results (last year was phenomenal) and find it hard to say he's not in his peak. But, unlike Novak, specific aspects of his game have declined.

This is well said. Roger has declined far more than Nadal, but he's gone from being a "10" to a "9," which is still better than most every other player (Rafa's probably declined from a "10" to a "9.5").

With that said, and despite mentioning them in the same sentence at first, I am definitely NOT equating Rafa being removed from his peak now to Roger, since Roger is WAAAAAAY removed from his peak, while Rafa is potentially only now exiting his. I look at Rafa now and for the past 2 years the same way I looked at Roger in 2008-2009 (incidentally, like Roger during those two years, Rafa has won 3 slams over the past couple of seasons and finished one of them as world number 1, again, just like Roger then).

At one point I considered the possibility that Roger, in 2008-09, was still as good as ever, but just had a more formidable group of young elites to play against. But I did some research and found that not only his overall winning percentage went down, but his winning percentage against players other than Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray also went down. In other words, there was a half-step down in his overall results, not just against the young upstarts.

But yeah, I think Rafa in 2012-14 is probably equivalent to Roger in 2008-10. If the pattern holds true then 2015 would be Rafa's first Slam-less year. The different, though, is that Rafa at Roland Garros is better than Roger at any surface, so Rafa has a better chance of at least holding onto that one Slam.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Rafa has one more surge in him, with one more two-Slam year. But it is getting harder and harder as the younger generation gets better and better.

 

[isabelle]

Simon doesn't seem to have a clear peak. His best ranked year was 2008, but aside from injury in 2010 he's been pretty consistent since. But I wouldn't call 2014 any greater than any other year, unless of course he wins the Shanghai final.

He didn't but he played good and wasn't ridiculous even if the match wasn't so entertaining