A Few Thoughts on Federer

[El Dude]

I could be completely wrong, but I can't help but think that his serve isn't as good as it was, and because of it his game is thrown off. He doesn't seem to be acing anyone and while he can still get some sharp angles, he's not getting any free points, and missing a lot of first serves.This is making him have to press more in rallies, thus the shanks and unforced errors.

 

[Moxie]

I was really thinking the same today, Dude. He did have a few of those "60-second" service games, but they come less frequently. Mention was made by the commentators too: used to be, when he serve was coming up for the set, he'd just relax through his opponents service game, knowing he'd be able to serve it out. Now, he feels less confident about that, and so he presses more, resulting in more errors. Not sure why the serve is less reliable, except that serve is a lot about confidence.

 

[DarthFed]

The thing about Roger's serve is that people tend to think it was always like the 2008-2009 period when it was amazing. Roger never served nearly as well as he did those years. But now it seems to have gotten worse than I can remember. Not a good % and not the same placement which isn't unrelated since he naturally will go for less if he isn't hitting a good %.

 

[Front242]

Imo he should practice like a madman in the off season with the new racquet and have the balls to dump the old one. I wish he'd done so after the US Open but he didn't feel confident I guess. Who can blame him given the year he's had. I think if he wasn't struggling with his back in the 2 small clay tournaments he played this summer he'd have maybe stuck with the new racquet if he got more used to it. He needs the extra power now that he's so much older than his main rivals and even lower ranked opponents. All in all, more power can only be good. More oomph on serves and groundstrokes. End points quicker and the added mph may help rectify the lack of aces.

 

[Moxie]

The thing about Roger's serve is that people tend to think it was always like the 2008-2009 period when it was amazing. Roger never served nearly as well as he did those years. But now it seems to have gotten worse than I can remember. Not a good % and not the same placement which isn't unrelated since he naturally will go for less if he isn't hitting a good %.

Roger's serve wasn't great in 2004-7? I'm not contesting your point, just asking…you would have been paying more attention. He certainly didn't lose a lot of service games in that time-frame.

 

[DarthFed]

The thing about Roger's serve is that people tend to think it was always like the 2008-2009 period when it was amazing. Roger never served nearly as well as he did those years. But now it seems to have gotten worse than I can remember. Not a good % and not the same placement which isn't unrelated since he naturally will go for less if he isn't hitting a good %.

Roger's serve wasn't great in 2004-7? I'm not contesting your point, just asking…you would have been paying more attention. He certainly didn't lose a lot of service games in that time-frame.

It's always ranged from good to excellent. In 04-07 it was very good, 08-09 it was excellent and it's come down since then. This year was the worst it's been.

 

[Correspondent Kiu]

You know, as much as I like him and respect his game, I didn't think he was going to make the semis of this current event.

I am happy I was wrong. The old man made me proud. He is the GOAT!

 

[Garro]

I could be completely wrong, but I can't help but think that his serve isn't as good as it was, and because of it his game is thrown off. He doesn't seem to be acing anyone and while he can still get some sharp angles, he's not getting any free points, and missing a lot of first serves.This is making him have to press more in rallies, thus the shanks and unforced errors.

Not that there's any definitive way to test serve effectiveness, but Roger's average ace per match count has gone down this year. 6.4 to last year's 8.3. As for 2003 to now (stats from atpworldtour.com), that stat has been 7.3, 7.0, 7.0, 6.8, 7.8, 8.6, 9.0, 8.4, 6.9, 8.3, and 6.4. This seems to confirm both that this year is Roger's worst serving year since he was young, and that 2007-10, specifically 2009, was his serving peak.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The thing about Roger's serve is that people tend to think it was always like the 2008-2009 period when it was amazing. Roger never served nearly as well as he did those years. But now it seems to have gotten worse than I can remember. Not a good % and not the same placement which isn't unrelated since he naturally will go for less if he isn't hitting a good %.

Roger's serve wasn't great in 2004-7? I'm not contesting your point, just asking…you would have been paying more attention. He certainly didn't lose a lot of service games in that time-frame.

I guess you can call it great in 04-07, but Darth is right in that it became even better in 08-09. If I had to pinpoint it, I'd say Wimbledon 2007 was when his serve started becoming untouchable at times, and it got even better the following two years.

 

[tented]

The thing about Roger's serve is that people tend to think it was always like the 2008-2009 period when it was amazing. Roger never served nearly as well as he did those years. But now it seems to have gotten worse than I can remember. Not a good % and not the same placement which isn't unrelated since he naturally will go for less if he isn't hitting a good %.

Roger's serve wasn't great in 2004-7? I'm not contesting your point, just asking…you would have been paying more attention. He certainly didn't lose a lot of service games in that time-frame.

I guess you can call it great in 04-07, but Darth is right in that it became even better in 08-09. If I had to pinpoint it, I'd say Wimbledon 2007 was when his serve started becoming untouchable at times, and it got even better the following two years.

I would go back a little more, and say AO 2007.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

when was federers serve good in 2008 ?,,he won bugger all, uso apart, was he good in 2nd rd of masters ?, ok in wimby final, he was broken 3 times in last set at rg.

post mono and burn out wasted his whole game slightly,, maybe stats are distorted by 100percent serve in early rd of 250 events.

 

[brokenshoelace]

when was federers serve good in 2008 ?,,he won bugger all, uso apart, was he good in 2nd rd of masters ?, ok in wimby final, he was broken 3 times in last set at rg.

post mono and burn out wasted his whole game slightly,, maybe stats are distorted by 100percent serve in early rd of 250 events.

His serve improved, the rest of his game regressed.

 

[tented]

Here are his first-serve percentages for all GS from 2006-2008. (Numbers are rounded up. No. 1 is the first round, 7 is the final, etc.)

In terms of looking at his serve only in terms of first-serve percentage, 2008 is clearly the best. I thought the numbers for 2007 would be noticeably higher than 2006, but they're not.

---

2006

AO =
1 - 68
2 - 60
3 - 67
4 - 58
5 - 61
6 - 66
7 - 53
Average = 62%

RG =
1 - 66
2 - 67
3 - 61
4 - 63
5 - 62
6 - 56
7 - 60
Average = 62%

Wimbledon =
1 - 67
2 - 61
3 - 64
4 - 68
5 - 57
6 - 72
7 - 69
Average = 65%

US Open =
1 - 60
2 - 69
3 - 62
4 - 64
5 - 61
6 - 66
7 - 61
Average = 63%

---

2007

AO =
1 - 70%
2 - 63%
3 - 53%
4 - 62%
5 - 62%
6 - 50%
7 - 58%
Average = 60%

Roland Garros =
1 - 70
2 - 68
3 - 61
4 - 50
5 - 58
6 - 51
7 - 64
Average = 60%

Wimbledon =
1 - 61%
2 - 58%
3 - 65%
4 - WO
5 - 59%
6 - 71%
7 - 71%
Average = 64%

US Open =
1 - 63
2 - 65
3 - 66
4 - 72
5 - 61
6 - 54
7 - 62
Average = 63%

---

2008

AO =
1 - 76
2 - 68
3 - 64
4 - 62
5 - 67
6 - 62
7 - --
Average = 67%

RG =
1 - 67
2 - 69
3 - 63
4 - 53
5 - 64
6 - 71
7 - 68
Average = 65%

Wimbledon =
1 - 69
2 - 60
3 - 72
4 - 61
5 - 69
6 - 66
7 - 65
Average = 66%

US Open =
1 - 75
2 - 64
3 - 72
4 - 67
5 - 61
6 - 64
7 - 58
Average = 66%

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some time ago, may be an year or so, Cali created a thread in which he was making
a case of why Federer is not great as he encountered a problem in Nadal and could not
figure out a way to solve it. He had many good points. Can some one give a bump to
that thread.

 

[Front242]

Some time ago, may be an year or so, Cali created a thread in which he was making
a case of why Federer is not great as he encountered a problem in Nadal and could not
figure out a way to solve it. He had many good points. Can some one give a bump to
that thread.

I'd agree in most of the slam matches in recent years he hasn't found an answer but today he was playing on his best surface and had his forehand been better and he served better who knows what may have happened. His main problem today was after 4-4 first set he imploded. The missed break point with an open court sealed his doom. If he even hit it less hard it would've been miles in. Then after getting the break back when he went down 4-5 he played another inexplicably poor service game. I mean Nadal was solid today, but did he really have to do much? No. That's the depressing thing. Most people would admit that match was a complete dud. Pretty good viewing till 4-4 first set though with good play from both. Wouldn't say Nadal brought it up a level at any point to run away with it. Federer simply evaporated into thin air after losing the 2nd break to go down 5-6. It was all over after that tbh.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There are a few articles in various sources based on an interview by Fed today.
He talks about his 2014 goals. You can read the details in the original
sources. Here is the Gist.

It looks like he is being very realistic. It appears that he has given
up on becoming #1 again as a goal, at least for 2014. He also does
not talk about winning one more slam in 2014. He says, he wants
to win 5 titles in 2014. He indicates that there may be some changes
in his schedule in 2014 during the period between AO and FO. But, he
says he will neither expand nor contract his schedule. Also, he does
not plan on playing all the 1000 events in 2014.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some time ago, may be an year or so, Cali created a thread in which he was making
a case of why Federer is not great as he encountered a problem in Nadal and could not
figure out a way to solve it. He had many good points. Can some one give a bump to
that thread.

I'd agree in most of the slam matches in recent years he hasn't found an answer but today he was playing on his best surface and had his forehand been better and he served better who knows what may have happened. His main problem today was after 4-4 first set he imploded. The missed break point with an open court sealed his doom. If he even hit it less hard it would've been miles in. Then after getting the break back when he went down 4-5 he played another inexplicably poor service game. I mean Nadal was solid today, but did he really have to do much? No. That's the depressing thing. Most people would admit that match was a complete dud. Pretty good viewing till 4-4 first set though with good play from both. Wouldn't say Nadal brought it up a level at any point to run away with it. Federer simply evaporated into thin air after losing the 2nd break to go down 5-6. It was all over after that tbh.

In the game in which Fed failed to break in the first set, he had three break points. Most
of us talk about the one which Fed missed. Of course, it is a terrible miss. But, Nadal made
phenomenal serve on the other two break points. I have to look up the stats. But, I think
Nadal is becoming a giant in defending break points.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think it's about time we realize there's a reason Federer "implodes" against Nadal, and it's not really random. It also goes beyond the H2H record, since Federer started "imploding" against Nadal before the latter's H2H lead was that resounding.

 

[Haelfix]

I think it's about time we realize there's a reason Federer "implodes" against Nadal, and it's not really random. It also goes beyond the H2H record, since Federer started "imploding" against Nadal before the latter's H2H lead was that resounding.

He's also far from the only person that it happens too, it's perhaps just more glaring considering that Federers best tennis is so dominant. It's a bit like the Santoro Safin matchup. But yes Rafa makes almost everybody overplay.

You can sort of see the problem Roger faces against Rafa. He doesn't believe he can win by grinding it out, he can't finesse a win, he can't merely hold serve bc eventually Rafa gets a bead on it and he knows he has to play his best tennis at all times in order to win. A lot is a self created problem but then that has a lot to do with their history.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Federer should focus on getting into the top 4 before the beginning of Wimbledon 2014,
to give him some chance of winning it. If he is not in top 4, he will not win it under the
current level of competition.