I was trying to summarize
@El Dude 's point, wrote in a hurry and was far from being clear. What I meant was: "if nobody stands out, than everyone has a shot".
Apart from Alcaraz, as we discussed before, I am really not sure if we can say that someone else stands out. I get your point, but if someone would tell me "name a guy who you are pretty sure that will reach R4 in Roland Garros" I would not be able to answer.
Yes, this is well said, though I would say that one name comes to mind: Casper Ruud, whose last three RG results are F, F, SF. I don't think he could beat a healthy Alcaraz or Sinner in a Slam final, but I'm pretty sure he'll reach at least the 4th round.
But yeah, I think you're getting my larger point, which is that RG is more up for grabs than it has been in two decades and we have a good chance of seeing some surprises.
When considering clay greatness, we have to sort of forget Rafa. The only player who came vaguely close to his clay/RG dominance was Borg, albeit in a very different era and even he "only" won 85.7% of clay matches (vs. Rafa's 90.5%). According to Elo, Borg's peak was about as good as Rafa's on clay - but again, we're talking 331 matches vs. 541 for Rafa.
Below those guys you have "garden variety" ATG clay players like Lendl, Djokovic, Vilas, Wilander, etc. I think this is the level we can potentially hope to see from Alcaraz (or possibly Someone Else, if he's as good on clay as we hope he'll be). Meaning, guys who win multiple Roland Garros titles, and a handful of clay Masters, and double-digit titles on clay.
The next tier would be guys like Roger on clay, Nastase, Muster, etc: what we could call lesser great clay players. I think Tsitsipas, Zverev (or Thiem)
could have been on this level, but for various reasons never got there. This might also be the level we can hope to see from Sinner.
As you say, Alcaraz is the only guy who figures to be a truly great clay player. I think Sinner could get there - or at least be good enough to win a RG or two. Really, we haven't seen peak Sinner on clay yet. He had that dip last year that encapsulated clay season and he's get to get past a SF at any clay big title. The next candidate is Fonzie, but that's jumping the gun. I don't see clay greatness from anyone else. Yet.
Ruud is a really good player and a top 5 clay player, but let's face it - he's 0-6 in big title finals and is really the kind of player that will only win a big title by default; that is, if none of the very best players are there and/or playing well. He's kind of a micro-Ferrer.
When I look at the current field, I see a bunch of guys who I could see surprising and winning Roland Garros. I think Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic are still the top three favorites--and probably in that order--but all with big question marks for this year. Zverev and Tsitsipas are next on paper, but they are both head-cases. The next group gets interesting, because you have a bunch of guys who could surprise and sneak it out: Berrettini, Rune, Musetti, Ruud. Who knows, maybe even someone like Cerundolo. The draw would really have to open up for him, though, as I think all those mentioned above--plus a few others like Rublev, Fils, maybe even Fonzie, have a better chance.
Right now my personal RG rankings are:
- Alcaraz
- Sinner
- Djokovic
- Zverev
- Rune
- Berrettini
- Ruud
- Tsitsipas
- Musetti
- Fils
But this could change.
p.s. Not sure why I have Berrettini so high...I guess I just haven't shaken the feeling that he's one good run from being a serious Slam contender. I'm still not sure he's back to his 2021 level, or if he'll ever get there. Dude is less than a year away from 30...
