I'm definitely starting to worry about Rune. At 20, he obviously still has a lot of time and he's as talented as anyone on tour--including Alcaraz and Sinner. But the red flags aren't going away. At the least, his future stock is a bit less than it was at the end of 2022. At that point he looked like he was going to challenge Alcaraz for the future of tennis, now not only has he slipped well behind both Alcaraz but also Sinner too, and the chances that he becomes another Tsitsipas are significantly greater. My take on him:
<5%: Best player of the next ten years, an inner circle ATG ("Samprasian")
15%: Vying with Alcaraz and Sinner for Slams and #1s, a true ATG but not inner circle ("Beckerian")
40% Behind Alcaraz and Sinner, but still elite and at least one Slam, just without the consistency to be a true ATG ("Safin-esque")
30% Tsitsipasville - Top 10 guy, but erratic and overall disappointing
10% Kyrgiostown - a headcase who doesn't come close to fulfilling his potential, but at least provides entertainment for the next decade.
Or something like that. a Year and a half ago I might have said 10/40/25/20/5.