2019 Roland Garros Men's Final: Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem

[GameSetAndMath]

Thiem can very certainly hang in with Ralph in baseline rallies. Just because the rally is going for a longer time does not directly translate to an advantage fro Ralph (unlike when he plays with Fed for example). My only concern is that Thiem is not very good in executing passing shots when the opponent comes forward. However, the effect of that should be less considering Nadal is not a person who comes to the net often.

Thiem has won zero sets in three previous tries against Ralph at RG. Now, we want him to win three sets against Ralph in the same year. It looks like a big ask. But stranger things have happened. While I won't put my money on Thiem, I will be rooting for him big time tomorrow.

 

[Moxie]

Thiem needs to learn how to hit nice passing shots when the opponent comes forward. That seemed to be his main weakness based on what I saw of him at RG this year.

Also, in the fifth set against Novak, Thiem lost serve two times while leading. At 4-1, he lost serve and he cannot do anything about it as Novak was ultra-aggressive and everything worked out for Novak. However, when serving at 5-3, Thiem lost the game all by himself primarily due to choking. Fortunately, he was able to break again and win. But, if you get a chance and miss it against Ralph, he is probably not going to get another chance.

Thiem passed Novak a lot of the last 2 days. I don't know the stat off hand, but Novak came forward a surprising amount, (to the puzzlement of about everyone,) and he got passes about 75% of the time, IIRC.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Thiem passed Novak a lot of the last 2 days. I don't know the stat off hand, but Novak came forward a surprising amount, (to the puzzlement of about everyone,) and he got passes about 75% of the time, IIRC.

I have not checked the stat. I made the comment based on the portions of the match that I saw. But, I did not see the whole match, primarily the second half of the 3rd set and the fourth set.

 

[Moxie]

At the very least, Thiem has been in a major final before, so he won’t be dealing with the X factor of playing his first one. Lots of players who have won majors didn’t win their first final, in part because the whole occasion became overwhelming.

Of everyone who might be able to trouble Rafa tomorrow, under the circumstances, I'd say it's Thiem. He's going to be tired, but he's 25, and, as you say, he's been to the final here before. He's beaten Nadal recently, he's really fit and strong, and at his age he'll recover better than Novak would have.

 

[Moxie]

I have not checked the stat. I made the comment based on the portions of the match that I saw. But, I did not see the whole match, primarily the second half of the 3rd set and the fourth set.

Still, in that portion of the match, I think he passed Novak a good deal. I have no idea why Djokovic was rushing the net so much, since he does so much damage from the baseline. But it didn't get him a lot of success and Thiem took advantage. Now, whether that was Thiem's skill at passing, or Nole coming in behind crap, I'm not sure which mattered more, but you can't say Thiem doesn't have an effective passing shot. He's considered #2 on clay now active for a reason, and I think today he consolidated the notion.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Still, in that portion of the match, I think he passed Novak a good deal. I have no idea why Djokovic was rushing the net so much, since he does so much damage from the baseline. But it didn't get him a lot of success and Thiem took advantage. Now, whether that was Thiem's skill at passing, or Nole coming in behind crap, I'm not sure which mattered more, but you can't say Thiem doesn't have an effective passing shot. He's considered #2 on clay now active for a reason, and I think today he consolidated the notion.

That is the portion of the much that I did not see. I am referring to this morning's early portions.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Thiem passed Novak a lot of the last 2 days. I don't know the stat off hand, but Novak came forward a surprising amount, (to the puzzlement of about everyone,) and he got passes about 75% of the time, IIRC.

I checked the stats. You are right. Novak came in 71 times and was successful only 35 times, a 49% success rate. This is certainly
acceptable. This means Thiem must have passed him many times.

Also, interestingly, Thiem came forward 20 times and was successful as may as 18 times, a 90% success rate. This means Thiem is coming in after very good approach shots. Even though he is not coming in as often as some other players would do, he has very high success rate once he comes forward. This is really nice as Ralph is sure to pass you if you come forward without a good approach shot.

 

[tented]

I checked the stats. You are right. Novak came in 71 times and was successful only 35 times, a 49% success rate. This is certainly
acceptable. This means Thiem must have passed him many times.

Also, interestingly, Thiem came forward 20 times and was successful as may as 18 times, a 90% success rate. This means Thiem is coming in after very good approach shots. Even though he is not coming in as often as some other players would do, he has very high success rate once he comes forward. This is really nice as Ralph is sure to pass you if you come forward without a good approach shot.

71 times? Damn. It didn’t seem like that many, but it’s hard to get a feel for the match as a whole, since it was so broken up.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

71 times? Damn. It didn’t seem like that many, but it’s hard to get a feel for the match as a whole, since it was so broken up.

That is actually 71 times out of 326 total points played. Works out to about 22%. That means he came in at a frequency of more than once out of every five points. Novak generally does not come forward too much. Perhaps, he found it difficult to hang in with baseline rallies with Thiem. I don't have a very good sense of that SF as I did not watch it completely and as it was broken up several times.

 

[MikeOne]

I don't think Theim is tired at all... he basically played 2 out of 3 two days in a row, in cool conditions. This is what these guys do during the average non-slam tournament and they do it all week.

Logic says Nadal will straight set him or win in 4 but Nadal is human, when will he show he is human? 12 French opens is just crazy and Thiem is ready for a breakthrough. Thiem has amazing power, he can pull it off if he can use that power to get Nadal flustered and make Nadal make uncharacteristic errors. Having said this, Stan has a lot of firepower too and look at what Nadal did to him in 2017 final. I think Thiem is hungrier, looking for 1st slam and coming off a Djokovic win.

One day Nadal will be beaten, wouldn't be shocked if it happens tomorrow.

 

[tennisville]

I don't think Theim is tired at all... he basically played 2 out of 3 two days in a row, in cool conditions. This is what these guys do during the average non-slam tournament and they do it all week.

Logic says Nadal will straight set him or win in 4 but Nadal is human, when will he show he is human? 12 French opens is just crazy and Thiem is ready for a breakthrough. Thiem has amazing power, he can pull it off if he can use that power to get Nadal flustered and make Nadal make uncharacteristic errors. Having said this, Stan has a lot of firepower too and look at what Nadal did to him in 2017 final. I think Thiem is hungrier, looking for 1st slam and coming off a Djokovic win.

One day Nadal will be beaten, wouldn't be shocked if it happens tomorrow.

Mental tiredness is a big thing really which you dont realize. In non slam events, both players have similar recovery options. This is not the case here where one player is sitting in a AC room while the other is struggling on the court.

I heard that Forget mentioned that there would be a monday final if the semis carried over to Saturday. Rafa apparently was against it while Djokovic and Thiem wanted a monday final

History will forget it but I will make sure to point out to newer generations 20 years from now about the unfairness in the scheduling(aka pull a fiero) that costed Theim a very good oppurtunity to win a slam

 

[MikeOne]

Mental tiredness is a big thing really which you dont realize. In non slam events, both players have similar recovery options. This is not the case here where one player is sitting in a AC room while the other is struggling on the court.

I heard that Forget mentioned that there would be a monday final if the semis carried over to Saturday. Rafa apparently was against it while Djokovic and Thiem wanted a monday final

History will forget it but I will make sure to point out to newer generations 20 years from now about the unfairness in the scheduling(aka pull a fiero) that costed Theim a very good oppurtunity to win a slam

3 easy sets vs Kachanov, 2 sets in cool conditions friday and 2.5 sets in cool conditions saturday. This is NOTHING for a guy as fit as Thiem so physically he will be 100%. Mentally, you forget Thiem has made 3 semis at FO and made finals last year, this is huge for his mental position. This is not his first slam and he has beaten Nadal several times on clay too... I think there is no excuse here. Thiem will be 100% mentally and physically.

Remember when Federer had that extra day in 2009 AO finals and faced a Nadal that gone 5+ hours vs Verdasco in a brutal match, with one less day rest? Everyone thought Nadal would barely be able to walk and look what happened, he crushed Fed in that 5th set, when he was supposed to be physically worn out. How about Djokovic in 2012 AO? He had gone 5 hours in a brutal match vs Murray in semis and Nadal made finals easily... I heard many say, Djokovic is dead, well, he won.

Thiem is MUCH less physically beat than Nadal and Djokovic during these two finals and yes, Rafa and Novak are GOATs but they are human, as Thiem is.

There is nothing here... If this would be Thiem's first final or he would've gone 5 sets on friday, i may be saying Thiem may struggle but Thiem had it fairly easy physically on 3 straight days...none of those days were brutal, and in cool conditions. Physically he will be 100%. I also think given he has beaten Nadal 3 times on clay, just beat #1 in semis and has made slam final before, he will be 100% mentally.

If anything, i think this may help Thiem early on, Thiem may come out firing and Nadal may need a few games to get going...

 

[tennisville]

3 easy sets vs Kachanov, 2 sets in cool conditions friday and 2.5 sets in cool conditions saturday. This is NOTHING for a guy as fit as Thiem so physically he will be 100%. Mentally, you forget Thiem has made 3 semis at FO and made finals last year, this is huge for his mental position. This is not his first slam and he has beaten Nadal several times on clay too... I think there is no excuse here. Thiem will be 100% mentally and physically.

Remember when Federer had that extra day in 2009 AO finals and faced a Nadal that gone 5+ hours vs Verdasco in a brutal match, with one less day rest? Everyone thought Nadal would barely be able to walk and look what happened, he crushed Fed in that 5th set, when he was supposed to be physically worn out. How about Djokovic in 2012 AO? He had gone 5 hours in a brutal match vs Murray in semis and Nadal made finals easily... I heard many say, Djokovic is dead, well, he won.

Thiem is MUCH less physically beat than Nadal and Djokovic during these two finals and yes, Rafa and Novak are GOATs but they are human, as Thiem is.

There is nothing here... If this would be Thiem's first final or he would've gone 5 sets on friday, i may be saying Thiem may struggle but Thiem had it fairly easy physically on 3 straight days...none of those days were brutal, and in cool conditions. Physically he will be 100%. I also think given he has beaten Nadal 3 times on clay, just beat #1 in semis and has made slam final before, he will be 100% mentally.

If anything, i think this may help Thiem early on, Thiem may come out firing and Nadal may need a few games to get going...

In all the examples you pointed out, the player had about 40 hours to recover, Thiem has less than 24. The fact that you are believing that a match where 1 player played 3 sets in 3 days and the other player played 8 is balanced means we should just agree to disagree. There is no point going further in this. You could see the mental tiredness at the end of the fifth where both of them were missing shots they would easily hit

I can say look at what happened in Rome this year where 1 player had all the advantage and the other was denied due to the pathetic schedule. I feel bad for Theim who has missed a potential opportunity to win a slam due to no fault of his own and completely because of the greedy tournament organizers

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Remember when Federer had that extra day in 2009 AO finals and faced a Nadal that gone 5+ hours vs Verdasco in a brutal match, with one less day rest? Everyone thought Nadal would barely be able to walk and look what happened, he crushed Fed in that 5th set, when he was supposed to be physically worn out. How about Djokovic in 2012 AO? He had gone 5 hours in a brutal match vs Murray in semis and Nadal made finals easily... I heard many say, Djokovic is dead, well, he won.

.

In AO, the two semifinals are played on different days as per original schedule itself. As a result one player has one day rest and other player has two days rest. While it is asymmetrical, it is not a big deal as the difference is not great, the moment everybody has at least one day rest.

On the other hand, if one player has 0 days rest and the other has 1 day rest, it is a big deal (even though the difference is 1 in the previous scenario and this scenario).

 

[shawnbm]

Of everyone who might be able to trouble Rafa tomorrow, under the circumstances, I'd say it's Thiem. He's going to be tired, but he's 25, and, as you say, he's been to the final here before. He's beaten Nadal recently, he's really fit and strong, and at his age he'll recover better than Novak would have.

Agree do I

 

[shawnbm]

A little Yodacization here on the site

 

[MikeOne]

In AO, the two semifinals are played on different days as per original schedule itself. As a result one player has one day rest and other player has two days rest. While it is asymmetrical, it is not a big deal as the difference is not great, the moment everybody has at least one day rest.

On the other hand, if one player has 0 days rest and the other has 1 day rest, it is a big deal (even though the difference is 1 in the previous scenario and this scenario).

In 2009, Nadal played 5 hours of brutal tennis vs Verdasco and i believe it was friday night... That was a brutal, physically debilitating match. Thiem played 2.5 sets friday, 2.5 sets saturday and in quite cool conditions, with some breaks. He will have no day's rest but these two days were hardly a physical test... Thiem is used to playing 2 out of 3 daily in lesser tournaments and i bet Nadal practiced almost as hard on saturday than what Thiem did saturday, during a match. Consider that 2.5 sets a 'practice' session.

Do you play tennis competitively? i used to play many tournaments... I have played marathon matches and believe me, if i'm given the choice of playing a brutal, 5 hour match with a day's rest vs 2.5 sets with no day's rest, i take the 2.5 sets 10/10 times. When you try stretching the body to the limits without a break, it is MUCH more debilitating than spreading it over two days, even if you don't get a day's rest. When you let the body rest before you stretch the limits, it recovers much easier.

i already see excuses here by Nadal haters... I see no reason why Thiem won't be 100% mentally and physically tomorrow... he didn't have a difficult 3 days and given he has made finals before, this won't be unfamiliar territory. In fact, i wouldn't be surprised if this helps Theim, especially early in the match. He will probably be firing from the first point and Rafa may beed a few games to get going.. i recall some even made excuses for Federer in 2009 because he had 'too' much rest...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Already pruned. It is only 12:35 a.m.

 

[Bonaca]

Mental tiredness is a big thing really which you dont realize. In non slam events, both players have similar recovery options. This is not the case here where one player is sitting in a AC room while the other is struggling on the court.

I heard that Forget mentioned that there would be a monday final if the semis carried over to Saturday. Rafa apparently was against it while Djokovic and Thiem wanted a monday final

History will forget it but I will make sure to point out to newer generations 20 years from now about the unfairness in the scheduling(aka pull a fiero) that costed Theim a very good oppurtunity to win a slam

Thiem took his chance to reach the final again, that’s his biggest possible approach.
No matter how often and long he played the last days, he will not beat the bull. Not if he’s healthy.
And he will be mentally and physically fit, he’s 25. His game is too 1-dimensional and the backhand for best of tree, not consistent enough. He also showed mental weaknesses yesterday, and barely squeezed out a win over a weak Novak.
I repeat it, Thiem is worthless in this final, and will be so long as bull didn’t become significantly weaker. He still is too hungry and good.
It’s not about the younger players, it’s about the Big 2, no really changes until they don’t lose their extra level.

 

[mrzz]

Guys, I know that during the final we can get emotional, the discussions and arguments and anything can get heated, so I just want to let all Nadal fans out there know that, no matter what I say or post during the final, I really hate you guys.