2018 Australian Open, Melbourne - ATP GRAND SLAM

[herios]

In the last few slams, Cilic performed better than the field aside Fedal, thus he reached his 3 GS final, 2 within the last year. As a consequence, in this depleted field he is the most dangerous opponent for the top 2.
Being only 29, he might end up with a few slams just like Stan or Murray.
I remember in 2014, most of the posters labeled him as a "one slam wonder".
He has a chance here to avoid that labelling, by snatching his second
Of course, if Roger will be in final, Marin will be the underdog, but this is not Wimbledon. He will have better odds here to upset the status quo.

 

[Federberg]

In the last few slams, Cilic performed better than the field aside Fedal, thus he reached his 3 GS final, 2 within the last year. As a consequence, in this depleted field he is the most dangerous opponent for the top 2.
Being only 29, he might end up with a few slams just like Stan or Murray.
I remember in 2014, most of the posters labeled him as a "one slam wonder".
He has a chance here to avoid that labelling, by snatching his second
Of course, if Roger will be in final, Marin will be the underdog, but this is not Wimbledon. He will have better odds here to upset the status quo.

I largely agree with you. My one dispute is that you think he has a better chance here than at Wimbledon. This is a faster court than Wimbledon in my view, therefore Roger has better chances here. I for one wasn't comfortable with that first set last year. I reckon crybabygate saved Roger from a whole world of trouble

 

[herios]

S

I largely agree with you. My one dispute is that you think he has a better chance here than at Wimbledon. This is a faster court than Wimbledon in my view, therefore Roger has better chances here. I for one wasn't comfortable with that first set last year. I reckon crybabygate saved Roger from a whole world of trouble

I think you forgot that Marin had his best result on the faster HC like New York and Cincy.
My take on the Wimbledon comparison was that Marin does not have as good footwork like Roger, which on grass is very important to have.
Therefore I do not think the speed of the court will favor more Roger.

 

[mrzz]

I can barely read my fellow posters from now till sunday and will not be able to post, but all I say is that I am scared to death by Cilic and I guess he enter the final with a hell of chance of winning it.

 

[Federberg]

S

I think you forgot that Marin had his best result on the faster HC like New York and Cincy.
My take on the Wimbledon comparison was that Marin does not have as good footwork like Roger, which on grass is very important to have.
Therefore I do not think the speed of the court will favor more Roger.

Marin has very good grass court pedigree. We'll agree to disagree. I don't believe the US Open has been as fast as Rod Laver is now for many many years. We are yet to see a contest between the two on this type of surface. I look forward to it.

 

[Denis]

Lol posters make us believe the AO has some kind of supersonic surface. Kind of weird that Nadal gets so far compared to Wimbledon then.

I am with herios on this one. In any event, its quite likely my AO viewing ends tomorrow.

 

[Federberg]

Lol posters make us believe the AO has some kind of supersonic surface. Kind of weird that Nadal gets so far compared to Wimbledon then.

I am with herios on this one. In any event, its quite likely my AO viewing ends tomorrow.

Surface speed is not Rafa's issue at Wimbledon. It's the low bounce in the first week. You'll notice that his chances increase dramatically if he's able to get to the second week. By then it's drier, less slippy and there's a bit more bounce. I'm not sure he's been past the 4R for 5 years...

 

[Denis]

Surface speed is not Rafa's issue at Wimbledon. It's the low bounce in the first week. You'll notice that his chances increase dramatically if he's able to get to the second week. By then it's drier, less slippy and there's a bit more bounce. I'm not sure he's been past the 4R for 5 years...

He has not

You say AO courts are faster, therefore Cilic has less chance. Yet, the faster, the better for Cilic no? Cincy, USO?

 

[Federberg]

He has not

You say AO courts are faster, therefore Cilic has less chance. Yet, the faster, the better for Cilic no? Cincy, USO?

I'm trying to be more nuanced than that. I believe I said that faster surfaces play to Roger's advantage. I was simply arguing that I believe Cilic would have had better chances at Wimbledon last year than here all other things being equal. I'm not making a prediction about a possible final between Roger and Marin. I have already stated that I see Cilic as a vastly greater threat than Chung. I'm not sure what your point about Cincy is. Yes Cilic has won there. Roger has won more. I don't believe that they've met there, but seeing as their H2H is 8 - 1 in Roger's favour it would only mean one thing if they had. I repeat I'm not saying Cilic isn't good on fast surfaces, I'm saying that the faster the surface the more likely Roger will beat Cilic. That's just my opinion

 

[Denis]

I'm trying to be more nuanced than that. I believe I said that faster surfaces play to Roger's advantage. I was simply arguing that I believe Cilic would have had better chances at Wimbledon last year than here all other things being equal. I'm not making a prediction about a possible final between Roger and Marin. I have already stated that I see Cilic as a vastly greater threat than Chung. I'm not sure what your point about Cincy is. Yes Cilic has won there. Roger has won more. I don't believe that they've met there, but seeing as their H2H is 8 - 1 in Roger's favour it would only mean one thing if they had. I repeat I'm not saying Cilic isn't good on fast surfaces, I'm saying that the faster the surface the more likely Roger will beat Cilic. That's just my opinion

I disagree with the part in bold. I think Fed's chances on clay would be much better than here against Cilic, and thats a much slower (but different) surface.

(A bit depressing I am debating this.... let's hope Chung shows some unprecedented champion quality tomorrow)

 

[El Dude]

@Shivashish Sarkar, Chung has been on the radar but he stalled out for awhile. He reached as high as round #50 a couple years ago due to kicking ass on the Challenger circuit (he now has eight Challenger titles) but didn't go any further. But he made some noise by surprising at Milan late last year, so people have taken notice again.

As for Edmund, I have mentioned him many times in my many dissertations on NextGen, but the response has been lukewarm at best - no one really took him seriously. I still don't think he's a top 10 talent, but we shall see. As I said elsewhere, he reminds me a bit of Jack Sock, and I could see him being a mainstay in the top 20 who dips into the top 10 every so often. But in order to win a big title he's going to need a nice opportunity like Sock had last year.

 

[Denis]

Chung has also been injured a lot. His number one goal for this year was to stay healthy he said in an interview before the AO.

Also, he is not really been off the radar. Maybe for you. It's one of those players I was following at 250 events to see if he entered and won a few rounds. But I haven't been posting since Wimbledon I must admit.

 

[Federberg]

I disagree with the part in bold. I think Fed's chances on clay would be much better than here against Cilic, and thats a much slower (but different) surface.

(A bit depressing I am debating this.... let's hope Chung shows some unprecedented champion quality tomorrow)

I'm not sure what clay has to do with this. I was talking about faster surfaces. Anyway... let's see what happens

 

[10isfan]

I think roof will be closed for Fed v Chung. That should favor Fed. As much as I like Chung, I’m hoping for a quick match so Fed shows up fresh for Cilic. He will need every advantage in the final.

 

[atttomole]

I think roof will be closed for Fed v Chung. That should favor Fed. As much as I like Chung, I’m hoping for a quick match so Fed shows up fresh for Cilic. He will need every advantage in the final.

Why would they close the roof?

 

[10isfan]

Thunderstorm expected in a few hours.

 

[the AntiPusher]

To be fair to Rafa, Cilic was just pounding the ball. It is hard not to be on the defensive vs. that kind of offense.

He only started to pound when Rafa played like Andy Dufrense vs the Sisters. Rafa didnt come to play like he did vs Grigor last year..Last year Nadal would’ve wiped the court with Cilic..Fed will make him his cryin prison bitch again,,

 

[Moxie]

I think roof will be closed for Fed v Chung. That should favor Fed. As much as I like Chung, I’m hoping for a quick match so Fed shows up fresh for Cilic. He will need every advantage in the final.

If so, that definitely favors Roger.

 

[Moxie]

Lol posters make us believe the AO has some kind of supersonic surface. Kind of weird that Nadal gets so far compared to Wimbledon then.

I am with herios on this one. In any event, its quite likely my AO viewing ends tomorrow.

I'm with you on disagreeing a bit with some about the AO surface. Posters have made a habit of calling the AO a "medium-slow HC" for years, particularly as a reason for why Novak has won so much there. When some (Darth, in particular) started claiming that it had been speeded up, I posted an article in which the AO tournament director says that it hasn't changed in (10?) years. And he explained why it may seem to play a bit faster in the early rounds, which also isn't changed. I'm always a bit dubious as to how so many armchair warriors are so sure about how the various surfaces play, year-to-year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'm with you on disagreeing a bit with some about the AO surface. Posters have made a habit of calling the AO a "medium-slow HC" for years, particularly as a reason for why Novak has won so much there. When some (Darth, in particular) started claiming that it had been speeded up, I posted an article in which the AO tournament director says that it hasn't changed in (10?) years. And he explained why it may seem to play a bit faster in the early rounds, which also isn't changed. I'm always a bit dubious as to how so many armchair warriors are so sure about how the various surfaces play, year-to-year.

I posted the exact court pace index in some other thread (may be early AO chat thread). AO courts are definitely and clearly faster than USO last year and this year.