2018 AO Men's QF: Federer-Berdych

[Denis]

We've seen this one a few times. Federer beat Berdych in straights in the last two editions of the AO.

h2h is 19-6 so not a completely terrible record for the Berd:

http://www.stevegtennis.com/head-to-head/men/Roger_Federer/Tomas_Berdych/

 

[Denis]

Im going with Fed in four competitive sets.

 

[brokenshoelace]

This is a weird match-up because when Fed is on, he completely owns Berdych and his game really is made to dissect him. That's why he had a ridiculously lopsided record against him when he was in his prime, and completely crushed him last year whenever they played when Roger was playing lights out. However, in between, Berdych actually game Roger fits, because when Federer went through that clear drop in level phase, where he was just moving poorly and playing overall sloppy, Berdych found it easy to overpower him and Roger really struggled to take control of rallies against him.

Unfortunately for Berdych, he has an extremely hard time dealing with Roger's serve and I think this will be a big difference maker in the match. So Tomas better hope Roger is having an off serving day. I think Roger wins in four.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

We've seen this one a few times. Federer beat Berdych in straights in the last two editions of the AO.

h2h is 19-6 so not a completely terrible record for the Berd:

http://www.stevegtennis.com/head-to-head/men/Roger_Federer/Tomas_Berdych/

The most recent 8 consecutive matches went Fed's way. That includes matches played in 2015 and 2016 when Fed
was in a relatively bad phase. Don't see why it should change now. Last year at AO, it was a total beat down. In Miami
Berdych actually gave a good fight and should have won that match, but managed to give it away. However, that is
because Fed is kind of tired in Miami after winning IW and playing there.

Even though Fed was not very impressive in his recent matches, he is definitely serving good. I don't think
the serve will suddenly go away.

Berdych's second serve is quite predictable and that is a serious weakness for him.

But, I would give Berdych one set. I would give Fed two fairly close sets and one blow out set.

So, Fed in 4.

I wish they make this day semifinal so that I can watch it peacefully (but they will not considering other QF lacks star power).

 

[mrzz]

he has an extremely hard time dealing with Roger's serve

Interesting that you say that as I remember tons of posters saying that Berdych could read Federer's serve well. Strangely enough I never particularly noticed neither one thing or the other, so I will pay more attention now. I doubt Federer can produce the same level he did against Berdych last year, while Tomas is playing surely better. Anyway, it is probably as you said, it depends on which Federer shows up to play.

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah Berd attacks Roger's second serve better than just about anyone. The difference between Berd causing a lot of trouble and Roger handling him in a straightforward manner comes down to Fed's backhand. Those few years after Roger's prime where his backhand was fairly weak is when Berd was causing a ton of trouble. If Roger's hitting the backhand well he can keep Berd moving off both wings and that doesn't bode well for him. If Roger is returning passively and not feeling the ball well he will be in trouble tomorrow. But he knows he needs this title, make it a life and death situation and Tomas will be dealt with, just got to dial in right away.

 

[Moxie]

Darth and I tussled over how much Berdych was a danger in Roger's draw last year. He was coming off injury and not playing especially well or confidently. At this point in time, he's looking much better than all of last year. The match-up doesn't favor him, so this one will be about how Roger comes in, I think. But this year, I do think Berdych will give him a hard time. But it will take his best tennis (which means serving) and help from Roger for Tomas to pull off the upset.

 

[El Dude]

I'm a bit worried. This is pretty straightforward in that if Roger is playing his A game, Berdych can't touch him (see, "2017 Australian Open"). If Roger is playing his B game, and Berdych brings his A game, it could be very tough. The problem for Roger is that we've only seen his B or even C game so far this tournament, and we've seen a lot of Berdych at his best. So unless Roger finds a higher gear than we've seen so far and/or Berdych implodes, it is going to be a hard match for him.

 

[Front242]

Not impressed by Roger so far and movement has been suss at times. Some rumours his back isn't 100% again which could explain the amount of slicing rather than hard hit backhands. Will need to be 100% against Berdych or it could be fugly.

 

[isabelle]

I voted for Birdie in 4.... fatty Mirka will probably shout, boo and insult him and skinny Ester"ll support his husband less noisily I guess

 

[Busted]

I'm going with Roger in 3...because that's what I want to happen. It'll probably be 4 sets...but I'm hoping for 3...and no I'm not staying up on a week night to watch because I have to work tomorrow. Better for my nerves that way...

 

[atttomole]

Roger has to shift to higher gears if he wants to win. His level so far in this tournament does not look good enough to beat Berdych. I picked Roger in 4 because, like Busted, that is what I wish for.

 

[mrzz]

I voted for the one with the wife who screams and whistle louder. In 3, as she will scream really loud.

 

[Front242]

I voted for Birdie in 4.... fatty Mirka will probably shout, boo and insult him and skinny Ester"ll support his husband less noisily I guess

Ester is a he? As the song goes: dude looks like a laaaaadyyy!

 

[Federberg]

Roger has to shift to higher gears if he wants to win. His level so far in this tournament does not look good enough to beat Berdych. I picked Roger in 4 because, like Busted, that is what I wish for.

Agreed. My hope is that he's just been doing what he needs to do, and nothing more. The thing that makes me think that's the case is that whenever he's needed to raise his level he's been able to do so fairly easily. He's not really had any episodes where he's been particularly tetchy which tends to happen when it's a struggle to do what he wants. It's been smooth, if not exactly as smooth as we Fed fans would hope. I can understand the concerns, I mean... he could have played better against Gasquet surely, but then deep down he surely couldn't conceive of a situation where he would actually lose that match. What was good though was that when it looked like Gasquet might be able to pinch a set he put the hammer down and quelled it quickly. In a funny way Fucsovics was a perfect set up for Berdych. Big hitter etc...

 

[El Dude]

Here's the optimistic view, following off of what @Federberg said about Roger upping his game vs. Gasquet when he needed to. Roger is working with conservation of energy. He doesn't look that great because he's only doing what is necessary to win the match he's playing in. He's not trying to blow people off the court, just beat them relatively efficiently. Remember, Roger still has not lost a set.

So the optimistic view is that he can play as good as he needs to, at least to beat the Berdychs, Chungs/Sandgrens, and Cilics of the world. He's just not doing a Rafa and trying to beat every one to a pulp. He's playing to the opponent, and as long as he faces opponents who he's significantly better than - which is everyone left in the tournament - then he should have no problem.

 

[mrzz]

Here's the optimistic view, following off of what @Federberg said about Roger upping his game vs. Gasquet when he needed to. Roger is working with conservation of energy. He doesn't look that great because he's only doing what is necessary to win the match he's playing in. He's not trying to blow people off the court, just beat them relatively efficiently. Remember, Roger still has not lost a set.

So the optimistic view is that he can play as good as he needs to, at least to beat the Berdychs, Chungs/Sandgrens, and Cilics of the world. He's just not doing a Rafa and trying to beat every one to a pulp. He's playing to the opponent, and as long as he faces opponents who he's significantly better than - which is everyone left in the tournament - then he should have no problem.

Amen to that....

...just a comment, to make justice to Cilic (and Nadal), the Cilic of the second half of the Nadal match is a monster of an opponent. But, yes, I agree that it was Nadal who invited him to the party, but still... you never know when Mr. Hyde might show up, and in this case Federer will need his A++ game to prevail.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Not impressed by Roger so far and movement has been suss at times. Some rumours his back isn't 100% again which could explain the amount of slicing rather than hard hit backhands. Will need to be 100% against Berdych or it could be fugly.

Hope that is not the case. In Wimbledon when Fed lost to Bird, Fed was having back issues. Actually, Fed slipped (not physical slip) in the presser and mentioned that he was having back issues. That made bird angry and he cried that Roger was not giving him credit. That was the only year when Fed did not get voted by his peers for sportsmanship award after a continuously winning that award.

Moral is back issues of Fed and Bird don't go together.

 

[crystalfire]

as long as fed plays solid he should win this in 4 tops. whoever wins this might probably be favored to win it all

 

[El Dude]

I would favor Cilic over Berdych, if it came down to it. Man, I hope that's not the case. If Roger can't win it, my hope is for Edmund-Chung!