mrzz
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2017 RG Final: Wawrinka vs Nadal
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mrzz
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I agree with this 95%, but Thiem began the match challenging him. First set was reasonably competitive and Thiem broke first. Thiem had break points early in the second too. Credit for Nadal to raising the level right from the start and killing the beast before it grew...
mrzz
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The semi did not live up to my expectations, anyway... (but, again, credit to Nadal on this). Wawrinka needs to absolutely rip the ball to have a chance. I got the point from the video above, but if you check the scores on their H2H, even in their last matches pre Stanimal days, you could find more and more competitive sets. The two 2013 clay matches are the exceptions (including the one in the video).
So I guess that there is a 25% to 30% chance of the match being competitive, and in that case I would give Wawrinka a 50% chance of winning (so the combined probability for Wawrinka winning would be from 12,5% to 15%).
So I guess that there is a 25% to 30% chance of the match being competitive, and in that case I would give Wawrinka a 50% chance of winning (so the combined probability for Wawrinka winning would be from 12,5% to 15%).
brokenshoelace
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It's interesting in the sense that given every player on tour's current form, this is literally the one guy who has a chance of beating Nadal this tournament (not speaking with the benefit of hindsight but honestly didn't think Thiem could do it in a 5 set match). Wawrinka has two things that make this final interesting: a) the pedigree. He's done it before. Repeatedly. and b) the "unplayable" factor. Meaning that if he gets in that zone, which he has in every single major final he's reached, he takes the match from his opponent's racket.
However, this is hinging on a perfect day for Stan (barring an uncharacteristic performance from Nadal). And while we know he can produce those days, doing it against Nadal on a Sunday afternoon in the second week of the French Open is a different proposition altogether.
Unlike Thiem, Stan's backhand will hold up better, and he definitely has a much better ability to let it rip with consistency when he's behind in the rally despite being miles behind the baseline. This is key against a version of Nadal who doesn't defend quite as well, as he'll have a hard time retrieving them. I also think Stan needs to have a particularly hot serving day, and punish Rafa's second serve on the return. Stan doesn't mind stepping back in order to take huge cuts at the ball, but against Nadal he definitely needs to stay closer to the baseline.
The flip-side to this is that if Stan isn't in Stanimal mode, this is a reaaaaaally difficult match-up for him on this surface. So anything less than a perfect match and he might be toast.
I'm worried about how nervous Rafa will be. I saw glimpses of that early in the Thiem match and he admitted as much in the post-match press conference. You don't want to do that early and allow Stan to settle in and gain momentum. He hasn't won a major in a while and he's not as young as he used to be so he might be feeling less confident than he normally would during a French Open final.
The bad news for Stan is that all the above factors need to exist and Nadal would need to play below his level. Because given the nature of the match-up on clay, if Rafa is in form, hitting with depth, aggression, and changing directions with confidence, then Stan will really need to be in 2015 FO final god mode where he just rips winners from impossible positions all day.
Rafa in 4.
However, this is hinging on a perfect day for Stan (barring an uncharacteristic performance from Nadal). And while we know he can produce those days, doing it against Nadal on a Sunday afternoon in the second week of the French Open is a different proposition altogether.
Unlike Thiem, Stan's backhand will hold up better, and he definitely has a much better ability to let it rip with consistency when he's behind in the rally despite being miles behind the baseline. This is key against a version of Nadal who doesn't defend quite as well, as he'll have a hard time retrieving them. I also think Stan needs to have a particularly hot serving day, and punish Rafa's second serve on the return. Stan doesn't mind stepping back in order to take huge cuts at the ball, but against Nadal he definitely needs to stay closer to the baseline.
The flip-side to this is that if Stan isn't in Stanimal mode, this is a reaaaaaally difficult match-up for him on this surface. So anything less than a perfect match and he might be toast.
I'm worried about how nervous Rafa will be. I saw glimpses of that early in the Thiem match and he admitted as much in the post-match press conference. You don't want to do that early and allow Stan to settle in and gain momentum. He hasn't won a major in a while and he's not as young as he used to be so he might be feeling less confident than he normally would during a French Open final.
The bad news for Stan is that all the above factors need to exist and Nadal would need to play below his level. Because given the nature of the match-up on clay, if Rafa is in form, hitting with depth, aggression, and changing directions with confidence, then Stan will really need to be in 2015 FO final god mode where he just rips winners from impossible positions all day.
Rafa in 4.
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
Hey BS. Nice analysis. Got to agree, everything needs to align for Wawrinka but there is a chance for him. Looking forward to it.
I guess Wawrinka's first serve was poor against Murray in the first two sets. He has to serve very well. And let's see how well his BH holds up. That is very difficult.
Stan needs to be serving big, hitting big and clean. As brokenshoelace has said, it needs to be a perfect day for him lest he should lose. Nadal will be playing very good. No doubt about that. Don't doubt it him at all. He is going to hit hard and wide.
Nadal in 4 sets is what I have indicated.
Nadal in 3 is very probable too.
Nadal in 4 sets is what I have indicated.
Nadal in 3 is very probable too.
I wasn't impressed by Nadal's level in the SF. Thiem had his chances and if he had broken , the match might have been longer. But that was a ordinary performance by Nadal and still won him in straights.
I honestly believe that if Nadal were playing at his 2008, 2010 or even 2013 level it is almost impossible to beat him on this particular centre court in Paris given how the court surface is and the action that Nadal's forehand gets here. This is so much different from Say Rome or MC.
So in that sense a well playing Nadal beats any version of Stan : Stanimal or not. The only player I could envision beating a peak Nadal on this court is someone with a 2 hander backhand and defense like Djokovic and even more aggression.
That being said : Nadal is not at his best. His defense is not what it used to be. And while his backhand and serve have improved, the forehand misses the bite of his prime. He is also clearly nervous after losing slam finals not least the heartbreaker against federer. So can he be the wall he was against Soderling for ex in 2010?
All that gives Stan a chance. That is, if the Swiss plays the match of his life. And if Nadal underperforms being nervous and having a bad day. But that is a small window. Anything else Nadal wins.
Rafa in 4 sets for 10th French Open crown.
I honestly believe that if Nadal were playing at his 2008, 2010 or even 2013 level it is almost impossible to beat him on this particular centre court in Paris given how the court surface is and the action that Nadal's forehand gets here. This is so much different from Say Rome or MC.
So in that sense a well playing Nadal beats any version of Stan : Stanimal or not. The only player I could envision beating a peak Nadal on this court is someone with a 2 hander backhand and defense like Djokovic and even more aggression.
That being said : Nadal is not at his best. His defense is not what it used to be. And while his backhand and serve have improved, the forehand misses the bite of his prime. He is also clearly nervous after losing slam finals not least the heartbreaker against federer. So can he be the wall he was against Soderling for ex in 2010?
All that gives Stan a chance. That is, if the Swiss plays the match of his life. And if Nadal underperforms being nervous and having a bad day. But that is a small window. Anything else Nadal wins.
Rafa in 4 sets for 10th French Open crown.
El Dude
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I feel like we're all trying to find a way for Stan to win. Sure, it is possible - but quite unlikely. There's an element of unpredictability, both because Stan can reach a very high level, and because we haven't seen Rafa challenged in this tournament, so it's hard to get a sense of his level. But what we have seen from Rafa is very good, and even Stan in his most "animalistic" state will have a hard time beating him.
This is an interesting final. If Rafa were facing Murray, Federer or even Djokovic, i would expect him to win. Djokovic has given Nadal problems on clay but Rafa had beaten him in a few FO finals before losing to Nole in 2015. This loss should have an asterix next to it as Nadal was struggling back then, nowhere near his best.
With Stan, it's a bit harder to predict. Stan is 3-0 in grand slam finals because when he makes a final, he's very confident and a confident Stan is extremely difficult to beat. When Stan is at his best, he hits with tremendous pace and spin consistently, serves big and moves deceptively well. Stan has an ability to hit winners from anywhere on the court, the way be blew off a dominant Djokovic in 2015 FO final and last year's USO final was scary. He has also taken out Federer and Murray in slams and is just a big obstacle when confident.
Nadal is playing at his best and he's the greatest clay courter of all time but if Stan is ripping groundstrokes and serves, even Nadal will have a lot of problems. Having said this, Nadal's game can present problems for Stan because it's a game of spin and angles, Stan may be forced to stretch for more balls than usual and have to rip winners off heavy balls for hours. Stan matches up well against Djokovic as Novak hits deep but isn't as good as Nadal with angles, it's almost impossible to beat a top form Stan playing Djokovic's game. Murray was able to take Stan out last year by using variety, angles and keeping Stan off guard. Federer does the same when he beats Stan, hitting out with Stan is a no win proposition. Nadal will need to serve big and be masterful with angles, especially the acute short angles he can hit. He will need to use some variety (drop shot, come to net, slice etc..) and he can, Nadal has variety.
One key factor may be the fact that Stan had a tough match vs Murray and given Nadal makes it physical, it could be a problem for Stan. This match is unpredictable, no score will surprise me.
With Stan, it's a bit harder to predict. Stan is 3-0 in grand slam finals because when he makes a final, he's very confident and a confident Stan is extremely difficult to beat. When Stan is at his best, he hits with tremendous pace and spin consistently, serves big and moves deceptively well. Stan has an ability to hit winners from anywhere on the court, the way be blew off a dominant Djokovic in 2015 FO final and last year's USO final was scary. He has also taken out Federer and Murray in slams and is just a big obstacle when confident.
Nadal is playing at his best and he's the greatest clay courter of all time but if Stan is ripping groundstrokes and serves, even Nadal will have a lot of problems. Having said this, Nadal's game can present problems for Stan because it's a game of spin and angles, Stan may be forced to stretch for more balls than usual and have to rip winners off heavy balls for hours. Stan matches up well against Djokovic as Novak hits deep but isn't as good as Nadal with angles, it's almost impossible to beat a top form Stan playing Djokovic's game. Murray was able to take Stan out last year by using variety, angles and keeping Stan off guard. Federer does the same when he beats Stan, hitting out with Stan is a no win proposition. Nadal will need to serve big and be masterful with angles, especially the acute short angles he can hit. He will need to use some variety (drop shot, come to net, slice etc..) and he can, Nadal has variety.
One key factor may be the fact that Stan had a tough match vs Murray and given Nadal makes it physical, it could be a problem for Stan. This match is unpredictable, no score will surprise me.
Correspondent Kiu
Correspondent
Rafa was too strong and Stan didn't have his best stuff, it's great to see Nadal playing his best again.
One of the greatest achievements in tennis . 10 at a slam is just unimaginable, but we just witnessed it
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