2017 RG Final: Wawrinka vs Nadal

[Denis]

Nadal leads 15-3. Will Wawrinka keep his 100% slam final record? Will Nadal beat his 2008 run?

2017 FO - RG F Clay Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal Upcoming
2016 Monte Carlo Masters QF Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-1 6-4
2015 ATP World Tour Finals 10 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-3 6-2
2015 Paris Masters QF Hard Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 7-6(8) 7-6(7)
2015 Shanghai Masters QF Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-2 6-1
2015 Rome Masters QF Clay Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2
2014 Australian Open F Hard Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3
2013 ATP World Tour Finals 11 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 7-6(5) 7-6(6)
2013 Shanghai Masters QF Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 7-6(10) 6-1
2013 FO - RG QF Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-2 6-3 6-1
2013 Madrid Masters F Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-2 6-4
2012 Monte Carlo Masters QF Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 7-5 6-4
2010 Shanghai Masters R32 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-4 6-4
2010 Canadian Masters R32 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 7-6(12) 6-3
2010 Rome Masters QF Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-4 6-1
2009 Miami Masters R16 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 7-6(2) 7-6(4)
2007 Paris Masters R16 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-4 6-3
2007 Stuttgart Outdoor F Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-4 7-5
2007 Australian Open R32 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-2 6-2 6-2

 

[AnonymousFan]

Nadal in 3

two breadsticks

 

[DarthFed]

Kind of could tell early on this clay season that Rafa wouldn't let this title slip away this year. As awesome as Stan can be in finals I don't see him being able to be consistent enough. Rafa in straights.

 

[crystalfire]

not taking away anything from rafa here at FO but so far hes really not faced any quality opponents imo. So if stan plays up to his potential this could be a great final and i think it could go either way. that said im gonna go with rafa cuz its the FO and cant bet against him. maybe stan gets a set

 

[mrzz]

Hard to see Nadal not wining, in the other hand, if Wawrinka wins, he becomes almost a legend.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

No doubt who will win this. I would give Stan a maximum of one set. Rafa is confident and focused a deadly combination.
La Decima, in three most likely (or four with small chance).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nadal leads 15-3. Will Wawrinka keep his 100% slam final record? Will Nadal beat his 2008 run?

2017 FO - RG F Clay Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal Upcoming
2016 Monte Carlo Masters QF Clay Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-1 6-4
2015 ATP World Tour Finals 10 Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-3 6-2
2015 Paris Masters QF Hard Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 7-6(8) 7-6(7)
2015 Shanghai Masters QF Hard Rafael Nadal Stan Wawrinka 6-2 6-1
2015 Rome Masters QF Clay Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 7-6(7) 6-2
2014 Australian Open F Hard Stan Wawrinka Rafael Nadal 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3

The head to head may be 15-3 technically. But, Stan become a Man only from 2014. If you look at the restricted H2H (shown above in the limited quote), it is 3-3 H2H in the Man vs. Beast rivalry.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Hard to see Nadal not wining, in the other hand, if Wawrinka wins, he becomes almost a legend.

If Stan win against this Rafa in the final at RG, especially when Rafa is going for La Decima, in a five set match, we should certainly anoint Stan a member of big four (and retire Andy from that role).

 

[atttomole]

Nadal in 4 sets, but I hope that Wawrinka can be his stanimal self, and give us a pleasant surprise.

 

[El Dude]

Hard to imagine Rafa losing. Maybe Stan gets a set off of him, because Rafa hasn't been challenged and hopefully Stan will put up more of a fight than Rafa's used to, but Rafa will adjust and win it. Something like 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 6-1.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Stan's got this. 3 sets, maybe 4.

 

[Denis]

Stan's got this. 3 sets, maybe 4.

 

[Denis]

The head to head may be 15-3 technically. But, Stan become a Man only from 2014. If you look at the restricted H2H (shown above in the limited quote), it is 3-3 H2H in the Man vs. Beast rivalry.

Good point, but none of those wins came here. Still only 2 people on earth have been able to beat him in Paris. His only win on clay came on an arguably low point for Rafa.

I vividly remember their 2013 QF here. Rafa ate W alive. It's an absolute horrible matchup. Here is a video

of the match and judge yourself. I take your point this is pre-Stanimal times but boy is this a bad matchup for Stan.

 

[crystalfire]

like all of you have mentioned stan has come around in the past few years and their head to head is not something im worried about. rafa looks good this tournament but hes basically been playing qualifiers this whole tourney so i wouldnt judge his form based on that. stan has played much tougher opponents and hes got the belief i wouldnt be surprised if he pulls this out

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Would love to see Stan win as I love his game when he's on.

Nobody has every beaten Nadal in a RG final ... Nobody has ever beaten Stan in a GS final period ...

Something's got to give. I guess it'll be Nadal in 3 or 4, and what an achievement it will be. But I'll be rooting for Stan all the way.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The odds as per the bookies are as follows.

Rafa: 1/5
Stan: 4

Roughly translates to 80% Chance for Rafa and 20% Chance for Stan.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

How to think Rafa is not going to win this? But I will give Stan a chance. Let's say he doesn't lose his game on the day like Thiem and plays his tennis without much errors. I know it's too difficult. The winner to UE ratio will matter to him the most. He might as well take a tip or two from Roger over the phone. You should be able to do something with that BH. I like the point on the restricted h2h too. It makes sense.

I would give Rafa 65% chance due to the match up and that is despite the fact that Stan is amazing these days.

I don't rule Stan out though. He hadn't won a set before that Oz Open match. He is going to play like a Sniper. His first serve is going to be vital. So is his capacity to handle high balls on the BH. Let's see. I hope it's a good match.

 

[El Dude]

Not sure where to put this, but nice little article on Rafa: https://sports.yahoo.com/nadal-shrugs-off-perfect-10-history-beckons-234606309--ten.html?src=rss

If we take him at his word, he's got a great attitude about it all. I think also this article points out how players aren't as hung up on things like "10" - it is more about the actual experience. That said, I wonder if he does indeed win Roland Garros, if his rise will feel as special as his comeback in 2013 did. I mean, wasn't he even more written off now than he was back then?

 

[Moxie]

Of all the options, I think Stan has the best chance of spoiling Rafa's Decima this year. That said, I think Rafa is focused and on message, and I don't think Stan can hold his game together for the requisite length. It could be Nadal in 4, but I voted for straights, as I think that's very possible, given the way Nadal is playing. If it took Stan 5 to dismiss this Murray, he won't have a prayer against this Rafa.

 

[Puppet Master]

Tomorrow we will have the immovable object vs the unstoppable force paradox.

Stan can't lose a GS final, and Rafa can't lose an RG final.
What will that turn out to be? They will create a rip in time - space continuum as they enter a first set tiebreak.

Realistically though, I don't see how Stan's serve can possibly hold up against this Nadal. He will sttuggle mightily. Just as he struggled against Murray, who is a much lesser player and isn't even close to the form Nadal is in right now.

My prediction is Rafa in 3.
Something like 6-4 7-5 6-3, Nadal can't possibly let this one slip and will be crazy fired up.